Watching What Richardson, Biden and Dodd Tell Their Supporters

In the next few days, one story we'll all be watching for in the Democratic presidential campaign is what Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd tell their people do to if they aren't viable on caucus night.

Viability

That's the party rule that says for a candidate to qualify for any delegates in a precinct, he or she must get support from 15 percent of the total number of people at the caucus.

Supporters of those candidates who don't have 15 percent are required to realign with a candidate who does - or form a new group that meets the threshold - in a second round of voting.

It's not a small matter. Since the Iowa Democratic Party reports only an estimate of state convention delegates won as a result of that second round vote, the official result becomes a count of those delegates, not the initial preferences of people as they go into the caucus site.

At most caucuses, frontrunners Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards will have 15 percent. The others may not. The question then is, what do the Richardson, Biden and Dodd people do? Most will make up their own mind. It's why the second choice preferences of their supporters are so important.

But some of these folks might like a little guidance from their standard bearer. It's why the actions of the single digit candidates are still important in the closing days of the campaign.

Four years ago, on caucus day the Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards people cut a deal: In those precincts where one of them wasn't viable, his people were encouraged to go with the one that was.

In those precincts where neither were viable, people were encouraged to form a viable group around the one with the most votes. It proved an important factor in Edwards good showing.

While Kucinich didn't have much support, his people did give Edwards a few extra percentage points that helped push him into second place.

So, this year, we'll all be watching to see if someone tries a similar move Jan.3. It's why candidates who often don't get a lot of respect in the final days should still be respected and could prove pivotal.

It's why Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama - or their Senate friends - should be getting on the phone to Chris Dodd and promise to vote for him for Senate majority leader if he tilts toward Clinton or Obama. He doesn't have to quit the race or endorse someone else, just signal what his people should do if he isn't viable in a precinct.

Or maybe Biden and Dodd - old pals from the Senate - should agree to rally around the one with the most support in a precinct, something that is likely to help Biden since he's showing more support in the polls than is Dodd. Or maybe form a Biden Dodd group, since the two are already often lumped together.

Republicans are much easier to understand. They just drop a name in a hat and announce the totals. Still, a version of this "Who will the single digit candidates support?" game got played recently when Tom Tancredo quit and urged his people to support Mitt Romney.

Tancredo had only 2 percent support but he understood that in Romney's close race with Mike Huckabee, those two percentage points might be important. It was better for Tancredo's cause to help a candidate who believes has he does on most immigration questions than be an afterthought on caucus night.

By David Yepsen, Des Moines Register, December 26, 2007