Iowa caucus can elevate second choice
But Grove has a backup plan.
If Richardson fails to qualify under Iowa's complicated system of counting Democratic caucus votes, Grove says he will switch his vote to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
Edwards, the former vice presidential candidate, is sort of the bridesmaid of the Democratic Iowa caucus. While most polls show Edwards running a close third behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the polls also say that Edwards is the most popular second choice among potential caucus participants.
Second choices usually don't fare well in politics. In Iowa, though, being second could be critical to success.
When Iowa Democrats caucus on Jan. 3, candidates who receive less than 15 percent of the vote are considered nonviable. Their backers have the choice of either going home or casting their ballots for their second choice.
The three leading candidates, Obama, Clinton and Edwards, should get roughly three-quarters of the Iowa caucus vote, according to polls. All three campaigns have been heavily courting the supporters of candidates who may not receive 15 percent -- most likely Richardson, Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.
Most everywhere Edwards goes in Iowa, he talks about what a stellar group of Democrats are running for president. He avoids criticizing the second tier of candidates. Before many campaign rallies, Edwards meets privately with undecided voters selected by his staff.
The other candidates are making similar efforts to reach out to supporters of their competitors. The courtship is soft sell because nobody wants to offend the backers of other candidates by saying that their guy is probably toast.
The courtship has led Clinton, Obama and Edwards to treat the second-tier candidates with deference. When Biden was asked during a recent debate about some racially insensitive remarks he made, Obama quickly jumped to Biden's defense. Clinton and Edwards applauded Biden.
Meanwhile, voters who think they have already found Mr. or Mrs. Right are still shopping for Mr. or Mrs. Almost Right.
Grove, a 64-year-old retired school superintendent, attended an Edwards rally in Council Bluffs. It was the third time he had seen Edwards speak. He has also gone to two Richardson speeches, one Clinton speech, one Obama speech and, even though he is a Democrat, to speeches by Republicans Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul.
"It's fun going to these things," Grove said. "It's the beauty of being retired." Grove picked Edwards as his second choice because he likes Edwards' emphasis on helping restore rural America and his populist message about the declining middle class. "I like his fighting spirit," he said.
Grove was moved by a new video that the Edwards campaign showed before the rally. The video included photos of a shuttered textile mill in Edwards' boyhood home of Robbins, N.C., and Edwards in football pads and footage of his father, Wallace, recalling how he taught his son -- who had come home bloodied one day from school -- never to start a fight but never to walk away from one, either. Wallace notes that his son whipped the bigger boy the next day.
Grove said that if that video were shown across the state, Edwards would win Iowa. "Most of my career has been in small towns and, in Iowa, they are disappearing," Grove said. "His message really resonates with you. I just personally like him."
Matt Winter, a Biden supporter, is still shopping for his second choice.At a rally in the small town of Le Mars, which bills itself as the "Ice Cream Capital of the World," Winter asked Edwards pointed questions. Why should Democrats believe he is the strongest candidate, he asked, given that Edwards didn't win the Democratic nomination in 2004, that the Kerry-Edwards ticket didn't carry North Carolina in 2004 and that Edwards lost his debate with Vice President Dick Cheney in 2004?
Edwards responded by saying he had "the seasoning and the toughness" to win the White House. He noted a recent CNN poll that showed him as the only Democrat who would defeat every potential Republican candidate in the fall.
"You learn," Edwards said. "You grow. You get stronger."
Winter, a 24-year-old law student from Sibley, Iowa, said later that he was leaning toward Clinton as his second choice.
"His answer essentially is that he is very self-confident -- he believes in himself," Winter said of Edwards. "The problem with that is he is not running against himself. He's running against other people."
A poll by Iowa State University found that 22.7 percent of likely Iowa caucus participants say Edwards is their second choice. Obama was the second choice of 20.1 percent of those surveyed, while 13.8 percent favored Clinton as their second choice. Other polls also have shown Edwards leading as a second choice.
"That is good news for Edwards," said James McCormick, chairman of the political science department at Iowa State. "He and Obama are running neck and neck for second choice. That is why it is a little bit dangerous to count Edwards or Obama out.
By Rob Christensen, The News & Observer, December 24, 2007


<< Home