LAKE BUENA VISTA, Florida (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidates wooed Hispanic voters on Saturday with pledges to keep working for immigration laws that would allow more of those already in the United States to become citizens and voters.

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and five other Democrats spoke to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials two days after the U.S. Senate killed a proposal that would have created a path to citizenship for more than 12 million illegal immigrants, many of them Hispanic.

"Many of us had relatives who came to this country without skills but have made a great contribution to themselves and their families and we're proud of them and we want to give more people that chance going forward," Clinton said.

By Jane Sutton, Reuters, June 30, 2007

Thompson, who is polling strongly among GOP primary voters and is expected to join the race soon, made the comment at a campaign stop Wednesday in South Carolina. The actor and former Tennessee senator was criticizing an immigration bill in the Senate, contending it would make the country more vulnerable to terrorism. Noting that the United States had apprehended 1,000 people from Cuba in 2005, Thompson said, "I don't imagine they're coming here to bring greetings from Castro. We're living in the era of the suitcase bomb." Fidel Castro is Cuba's leader.

All the major Democratic presidential candidates were at Walt Disney World for a forum sponsored by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Of the GOP candidates, only California Rep. Duncan Hunter accepted the group's invitation to speak.

With the failure of an immigration reform bill in the Senate still fresh, all the candidates vowed to pursue comprehensive immigration reform in the future. All said they support a path to citizenship for the 12 million immigrants living illegally in the U.S.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama defended his vote last year to build a 700-mile fence across the U.S.-Mexican border, saying it was just one component of a robust immigration bill he had worked hard to negotiate. "Nobody has been a more consistent supporter of comprehensive immigration reform than I have been," Obama said. "Do I believe fences make good neighbors and are the right approach? No, I don't believe that." Clinton and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden also voted for the bill containing the fence provision.

Florida, which intends to hold its important primary Jan. 29, is more than 20 percent Hispanic.

Over the four Democratic contest surveys, Clinton held 35 percent of the vote, Obama had 24 percent, Edwards had 15 percent, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 3 percent and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden had 2 percent, with 1 percent or less for the others. The most recent sampling showed precisely the same, except that Biden had 3 percent and Richardson had 1 percent.

The second strong message is that the Republican race is much more fluid. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani began the year with about 37 percent in Cook/RT polling, staying about 13 to 19 points ahead of Sen. John McCain of Arizona. But in the latest four-poll sequence, Giuliani holds a much narrower lead, 25 percent to 21 percent. The combined sample of Republicans and GOP leaners has a 2.6-point error margin. Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were running about even for third place, with 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Other candidates received 2 percent or less.

But in the most recent survey of the four, Giuliani (22 percent) and McCain (21 percent) were virtually even at the top, as were Thompson (14 percent) and Romney (12 percent) one level back.

(The poll results for both parties are based on questions that exclude potentially significant candidates who are not in the race and who, unlike Thompson, have not signaled a strong intention to run -- former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in).

Using the full four-poll sample, there was a 32-point gap on the Democratic side between the first- and fourth-place candidates, holding steady, while on the GOP side there was a 15-point gap between first and fourth, with first and second dropping and third and fourth rising. This essentially indicates a flattening in the GOP contest.

The stability and even spacing in the Democratic fight suggests it would take fairly dramatic developments to upset this steady order.

The tightening up of the GOP nomination contest, however, with previous front-runners faltering and relatively newer or fresher faces rising, suggests that this is becoming a fight oriented more toward resources and momentum. This puts pressure on the two early front-runners, Giuliani and McCain, to produce the resources to resurrect their earlier premier status, while Thompson and Romney have to show that they can keep up their upward momentum and produce the resources to continue to fuel it still higher. In short, Giuliani and McCain have to play defense from a weaker position than before, while Thompson and Romney are on offense, needing to build on existing momentum.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the runaway winner over the race's lone black candidate in the Democratic debate, according to groups of African-American voters in Harlem and Washington, D.C.

In the nation's capital, 33 undecided voters who identified themselves as people of color and who supported John Kerry in 2004 scored last night's face-off an overwhelming victory for Clinton.

Twenty-seven participants gave the former first lady the nod, compared to just two who went with Barack Obama.

Clinton scored consistently in the 80s, while Luntz's panelists panned Obama as flat.

The Harlem panel, organized by The Post, had a more mixed response but still leaned to Clinton. Of 18 voters - eight of whom were truly undecided - six thought Clinton won, two people gave candidate John Edwards the edge, and one gave Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd a nod. Just one viewer thought Obama won, while eight others picked one of the other of the eight candidates on stage.

"I would have liked to have heard [Obama] give more of [Clinton's] answers," said Ernestine Roach, a 66-year-old Harlem denizen who works for the Sanitation Department. Thomas Donaldson, a 41-year-old lawyer supporting Obama, said, "I think [Hillary] spoke forcefully and with conviction . . . I don't think it's a measure of his candidacy. I just think she's a better performer."

WASHINGTON - Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bill Richardson on Wednesday urged the Bush administration to continue a dialogue with Iran as the U.S. tries to thwart the country's pursuit of nuclear weapons. In separate speeches, the candidates offered a broad indictment of President Bush's foreign policies, from the Iraq war to the use of unilateral force to relations with Iran and North Korea.

Clinton said the administration has given Iran "six years of the silent treatment." "In this vacuum, Tehran continues its progress toward developing nuclear weapons and increasing its influence in the region," she told the Center for a New American Security. "After initial talks with Iran and Syria on Iraq, the administration says it isn't sure that we need any more discussions with either of them. I think we should keep talking."

The New York senator said U.S. priorities should be bringing troops home from Iraq, demanding that Iraqis take responsibility for their country or lose U.S. aid and intensive diplomacy to restore frayed relationships. "We have a long road ahead to repair the damage that has been done these past six years," she said.

She said she would introduce legislation soon to deal with nuclear terrorism. She said the administration has abandoned nonproliferation efforts, cutting off dialogue with Iran and allowing North Korea to reprocess enough material to make nuclear bombs and test a nuclear weapon. Clinton said she would increase funds for the global threat reduction initiative, ensure the removal of highly enriched uranium from research reactors around the world and create a senior adviser to the president for nuclear terrorism.

By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press, June 27, 2007

One big factor behind the flight from the GOP: a heated debate over immigration in which congressional Republicans' remarks on illegal immigrants have offended many Hispanic voters. The fallout from that battle, shifting Latino loyalties and a changing political calendar have scrambled political calculations made about Hispanics after the last presidential election - and raised the stakes for their role in choosing the Democratic nominee for the next one. Even though the presidential candidates are frantically raising money in the final days before the end of the month - the second-quarter fundraising totals are seen as benchmarks for their standing - all the Democratic contenders accepted invitations to address NALEO, the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. They will speak to the group's convention in Orlando on Saturday.

Hispanics will be more wary in 2008, Gilda Lopez, 56, a speech pathologist and reliable Democrat. With a crisis in Iraq and questions at home about the GOP's attitudes toward Hispanics, she says, "I cannot understand how a Hispanic person could vote Republican." The new survey finds fewer who say they will. Only 11% of Hispanics now identify themselves as Republicans, down from 19% in 2005, while the proportion who call themselves Democrats has jumped to 42% from 33%. Including independents who "lean" to one party or the other, Democrats lead Republicans among Hispanics 58% to 20%.

In a matchup between the candidates who lead in national polls, Hispanics overwhelmingly support Clinton over Republican Rudy Giuliani, 66% to 27%.

Patti Solis Doyle, campaign manager for Clinton and the daughter of Mexican immigrants, says the New York senator is determined to reverse the gains Bush made. "We did see President Bush make some real inroads among Hispanics, and she is very aggressively going after those votes," says Solis Doyle, Clinton's former scheduler and the first Latina to head a major presidential campaign. Her office is decorated with photographs of her husband and two children, a Diego Rivera print and framed copies of three Time magazine covers featuring Clinton.

The campaign has hired a leading Hispanic pollster, a director of Hispanic outreach and a liaison to Spanish-language media. Clinton also has landed some prized endorsements from top Hispanic officeholders, including Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez.

In part, Clinton's strength among Hispanics reflects the fact that she is the best-known candidate. Many Hispanics also have lingering affection for her husband, who got 62% of the Latino vote in the 1992 presidential election and 72% when he was re-elected in 1996. "I like Hillary," Margaret Crutchfield, a 61-year-old Mexican-American, says after the San Antonio rally for Obama, whom she says she also likes. Then Crutchfield adds, brightening: "I love Bill Clinton."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the son of a Mexican mother and American father, also sees Hispanic support as "a critical part of his constituency," campaign manager Dave Contarino says.
But Richardson still has to introduce himself. Six in 10 Hispanics polled say they've never heard of the former congressman and Cabinet member, the first Hispanic to seek the Democratic presidential nomination. He has announced key Latino supporters even in New Hampshire, a state that's less than 2% Hispanic.

Obama, meanwhile, is playing catch-up. Nearly half of Hispanics nationwide say they've never heard of the Illinois senator. Among Hispanic Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 13% support him. That's his weakest standing among any major demographic group, according to an analysis of combined USA TODAY/Gallup Polls taken this year.

By Susan Page, USA Today, June 27, 2007

PRINCETON, NJ -- The 2008 presidential election has gotten off to an unprecedented early start. Many candidates were off and running as the year began. How much has all of the extremely early campaigning for president at this stage of the 2008 race affected voter preferences? On the Democratic side, not much. On the Republican side, not much more.

The Fight for the Nominations

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton established her lead among the Democratic candidates early in the process. Since January there have been two occasions when Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who has been in second place during most of 2007, came within striking distance of Clinton in Gallup Polls, but she has otherwise maintained her lead, which has ranged from 9 to 19 percentage points. In Gallup's latest poll, conducted June 11-14, 2007, Clinton leads Obama by 11 points among Democrats (33% to 21%).

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (a formally announced candidate) and former Vice President Al Gore (who has not ruled out a bid but has said he has no plans to run at this time) have been competitive for third place among Democrats. Each has the support of at least 10% of Democrats, not too far behind Obama, but there has been little indication that either Gore or Edwards (let alone the other Democrats who will campaign for the nomination) are making significant enough gains to challenge Clinton.

Early Measures on the November 2008 Outcome

Seventeen months before the nation chooses its next president, most signs from the political environment favor the Democratic Party. The Democrats have a clear advantage in party identification among the voting-age population, Americans view the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party, and the basic indicators of the nation's mood are quite negative -- something that typically bodes well for the party not currently occupying the White House. Thus, not surprisingly, when asked for their generic party preference for president earlier this year (April 2007), Americans were much more likely to say they would rather see the "Democratic Party's candidate" win the 2008 election rather than the "Republican Party's candidate." The specific Democratic presidential candidates have capitalized on that underlying advantage when matched up against the specific Republican candidates in trial heat questions for the 2008 election.

McCain and Giuliani would appear to present the toughest match-ups for the Democrats at this point. Giuliani is the most positively rated candidate of either party, with a 57% favorable rating in the latest Gallup survey. And while McCain is not rated as favorably overall (47%), he is potent because he has impressive appeal across political parties -- rated much more positively than negatively by independents, and only slightly more negatively than positively by Democrats. The other Republican contenders, Thompson and Romney, are still unknown to roughly half of Americans and thus are not as well positioned to compete against a well-known Democrat.

The situation in Iraq is overwhelmingly seen as the most important problem facing the country today, and is the top issue Americans at this point say they will take into account in their 2008 presidential vote. The degree to which Iraq will continue to dominate the election by next year is unknowable. A scenario in which U.S. troops have begun to withdraw from Iraq by 2008 is not out of the question, nor is a scenario in which the recent "surge" in troops is seen as a success. Each of these would significantly affect the presidential campaign.

Terrorism will probably continue to be a strong underlying issue in the campaign -- Americans may not talk or even think about it much, but concern can be easily activated, particularly if there is another major terrorist event. The economy is almost always a factor in an election. Consumer views of the economy became more positive in January, but are much more negative in the latest June poll, possibly because of gas prices. Healthcare is a rising concern among Americans and has been a major issue in past election campaigns. Immigration will likely remain a campaign issue unless and until Congress passes legislation to address the subject of illegal immigration. Immigration ranks second behind the war in Iraq in Gallup's latest update on the most important problem facing the nation.

by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll, The Gallup Poll, June 27, 2007

U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown announced Monday that she is backing U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for president.

The Jacksonville Democrat saluted Clinton as having "the best combination of strength, experience and intellect to be president and lead from her first day in the White House. ... As she's repeatedly done as senator, she will bring people together to get results."

The former first lady, in turn, saluted Brown's "tireless work on behalf of our veterans to ensure they get the health care and benefits they need and deserve ... I am honored to have her support."

Brown is a member of the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs. She was elected to Congress in 1992 after 10 years in the Florida House.

She represents the 3rd Congressional District, which covers parts of Duval, Clay, Putnam, Alachua, Volusia, Marion, Lake, Seminole and Orange counties.

The Florida Times-Union, June 26, 2007

All the campaign visits to California from Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani appear to be paying off, according to a new poll released Monday, and Democrat Barack Obama - despite being greeted like a rock star at recent Bay Area rallies - is falling farther behind.

Clinton, who was in Los Angeles last week, is widening her lead among California Democrats to 37 percent, earning overwhelming support from women and non-whites, according to a random survey of 663 California registered voters conducted early last week by San Jose State's Survey and Policy Research Institute.

The former New York mayor, meanwhile, who is planning a trip to Northern California on Thursday, is maintaining a strong, but tighter, lead among the Republican pack with 25 percent support.

With California's primary scheduled for earlier than ever - in February, along with two dozen other primaries and caucuses - the front-runners are quickly solidifying their support and lesser-known candidates are barely registering. "This is one of the outcomes of the early primaries," said survey director Melinda Jackson, an assistant political-science professor at San Jose State University. "We're seeing so much money being raised so early in the race that Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd aren't even able to compete. We're seeing the field shake out pretty quickly."

Although California generally tracks three or four points to the left of national polls, Clinton's support appears to be gaining hold across the country. A CNN poll conducted during the weekend shows Clinton at 35 percent support. Obama has a strong presence in second place at 23 percent, followed by former Vice President Al Gore, who hasn't entered the race. Edwards is running fourth at 13 percent.

The San Jose State poll also found President Bush's approval rating in California plummeting to near-historic lows. Among Republicans, his approval rating is no more than 46 percent, and his approval on Iraq among Republicans is no more than 50 percent. Fifty-three percent of Republicans say they believe the president tells the truth, according to the survey. "The American people have been loud and clear in expressing their growing dissatisfaction with the president's performance over the course of his second term," Jackson said. "At the same time, President Bush has remained steadfast in pursuing his chosen policies while ignoring this downward spiral in public opinion."

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 27 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 14 per cent. Support is lower for Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, Delaware senator Joe Biden, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, June 24, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton is the most popular presidential hopeful in the Empire State, according to a poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. At least 52 per cent of respondents would support the New York senator in head-to-head 2008 presidential contests against three prospective Republican rivals.

Rodham Clinton holds a 15-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 24-point advantage over Arizona senator John McCain, and a 27-point edge over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is tied with Giuliani, but leads McCain by 15 points and Thompson by 24 points. Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore holds the upper hand against the three prospective Republican candidates.

In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry carried New York's 31 electoral votes, with 58 per cent of the vote. No Republican has won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, June 24, 2007

NORTH LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - Hillary Rodham Clinton returned Saturday to Arkansas, where she spent 12 years as the state's first lady, to rally Democrats as she seeks her party's presidential nomination. The New York senator and wife of Arkansas' political son Bill Clinton"I just remember people wanting to achieve things together," she said, standing on a stage in the center of Alltel Arena. "That's the way Arkansas worked best and that's the way America will work best." recalled her days traveling Arkansas and the feeling of camaraderie she had with the people she met.

Clinton called upon an audience of about 4,000 at the Democratic Party of Arkansas' annual Jefferson-Jackson fundraiser to work with her. "I want to be a president who sets goals for America again," she said. "And I want to ask everyone to work together to achieve those goals."

Gov. Mike Beebe, who has not yet announced an endorsement for the 2008 race, told Clinton, "Senator, on behalf of almost three million Arkansans, welcome home."

Unlike her husband, who was governor of Arkansas before he was elected president, Hillary Clinton isn't a native of the state. Still, her supporters say voters will embrace her as one of their own. "Arkansas is in you and we know it and we see it every day," said Rep. Vic Snyder. Sen. Mark Pryor said: "I think she has a special relationship with the state of Arkansas and the people of this state. I think she has a big advantage over anyone, Democrat or Republican, in this state."

By Andrew DeMillo, Associated Press, June 24, 2007

Rep. Albio Sires on Friday joined the growing list of elected New Jersey officials to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., for president.

Earlier this month, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., endorsed Clinton and was named a co-chairman of the campaign. In April, Governor Corzine endorsed Clinton along with a large group of officials that included Reps. Frank Pallone, D-Long Branch, and Rob Andrews, D-Haddon Heights.

Sires met with Clinton on Thursday in Washington in advance of the announcement. "I've seen firsthand Hillary Clinton's tireless efforts to help the people of New York affected by the attacks of 9/11," Sires said in a news release. "It's just one example of her strength and leadership that make her uniquely suited to be president." Sires became the first Hispanic speaker of the state Assembly in 2002 when James E. McGreevey, then governor-elect, backed him for the post. Sires served as speaker through 2006, when he was elected to fill Menendez's seat in the House.

Vying to become America's first black president, Obama has dealt in trademark charisma and soaring rhetoric, but shown inexperience, and his lofty idealism has been tested in the brutal arena of national politicking. "He came into the race with such a big bang, but there is a learning curve on the campaign trail," said Dan Shea, a professor of political science at Allegheny College, Pennsylvania.

On average, in national polls in June Clinton led in the Democratic race for nomination with around 35 percent, followed by Obama at 23 percent and former 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards at 12 to 14 percent -- roughly where the race has been for months.

In states hosting early nominating contests next year, the race is also forming. A CNN/WMUR poll this month in New Hampshire had Clinton on 36 percent Obama on 22 percent and Edwards on 12 percent.

In Iowa, a recent Mason-Dixon poll put Clinton on 22 percent, Edwards on 21 percent and Obama on 18 percent. Obama led Clinton 34 percent to 25 percent in a snapshot of the race by the same firm in South Carolina, where African-American support is key.

There have also been missteps. Obama recently had to apologize after aides sent out a memo questioning Clinton's ties to India and the Indian-American community. Questions have also been asked in the media over Obama's inexperience, as the next president may have to extricate the United States from Iraq, with the Middle East in flames.

By Stephen Collinson, AFP, June 23, 2007

NEW YORK --Bubba's back -- for a limited time only, he claimed Wednesday. Former President Clinton said Thursday he's returning to the campaign trail in two critical early voting states on behalf of his wife, but he doesn't expect to do much more in the way of public campaigning for her this year. "I thought we should do maybe one thing in Iowa this year and one thing in New Hampshire together so we can answer questions together about a lot of things we're both interested in," Bill Clinton said. "I don't expect to do a lot of this this year and I don't think it's helpful. I want people to get to know Hillary."

The former president spoke fondly of Iowa and New Hampshire, saying both states had been very good to him in his 1992 and 1996 campaigns. Iowa reminds him of his home state of Arkansas, he said. Long a behind-the-scenes player in his wife's campaign, the former president stepped into the spotlight this week with the announcement of his campaign trips and his humorous turn in a new Web video spoofing the last episode of the Sopranos. The video has been viewed over a million times in 48 hours on Clinton's campaign Web site and elsewhere in the Internet. Bill Clinton said he'd enjoyed taking part in the Sopranos send-up, saying Web videos "give a sense of unvarnished, mass participation in politics which in a big country is hard to do."

Aides say he'll continue to be very active with the charitable foundation that bears his name, and he plans a weeklong trip to Africa next month on the foundation's behalf. But his top priority continues to be "making sure the candidate he believes will be the best president who also happens to be his wife is elected," said his spokesman, Jay Carson. He has increased his fundraising for the campaign since the last quarter, headlining intimate dinners and larger gatherings across the country.

The Clinton's joint campaign trip top Iowa is viewed as especially crucial. Polls there show her in a tough fight with Obama and John Edwards, even as she leads in national polls and most other state surveys. Bill Clinton did not compete in the Iowa caucuses when he first ran in 1992, but he won the state in the general election that year and again in 1996. He credited New Hampshire with his political salvation in 1992, finishing a close second there. He went on to win the state in both the 1992 and 1996 general elections.

Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, noted that Bill Clinton's support in the state came primarily from middle- and working-class Democrats and from men. Campaigning at his wife's side could boost her standing with those groups, Scala said. "I don't think they're feeling desperate or that she is faltering, but my guess is that they are trying to buttress her support," Scala said. "She needs to appeal to middle-class voters and centrists, since progressive types might wonder, 'Is this going to be Bill Clinton's third term?'"

For many voters, joint campaign appearances for the Clintons will also satisfy the curiosity factor: How is this much-scrutinized couple handling a significant role reversal. "People want to see Mrs. Obama, they want to see Mrs. Edwards. They want to see the team," said former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who co-chairs the Clinton campaign. "He's a terrific surrogate, she's a great candidate, and we'll see an interplay between them which will be very helpful to her."