(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 28 per cent, followed by Illinois senator Barack Obama with 23 per cent, former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 20 per cent, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 13 per cent. Support is lower for Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, Delaware senator Joe Biden, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 31, 2007

Manchester - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton comes into the state this weekend riding atop a new American Research Group Inc. poll showing her with a 20-point lead over her closest rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

The same poll in July showed the two candidates in a dead heat at 31 percent apiece.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has opened a lead over former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani -- 27 to 23 percent -- with Arizona Sen. John McCain favored by 12 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9 percent. In July, Giuliani held a slight lead over Romney, 27 to 26 percent.

The poll done this week of the Democrats shows Clinton favored by 37 percent of the likely primary voters, while Obama has 17 percent and former vice presidential candidate John Edwards has 14 percent, the same as last month. The remaining Democratic candidates are in single digits, while 16 percent remain undecided.

The poll sampled 600 likely voters -- 430 registered Democrats and 170 undeclared -- between Aug. 26 and 29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will appear at rallies Sunday in Concord at the State House at 1 p.m. and in Portsmouth in Market Square at 6 p.m. Obama will appear Monday at a Labor Day Rally in Manchester in Veterans Memorial Park at 10 a.m. and at Milford and Hudson. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd will be in New Hampshire this weekend as well.

ARG polls done in Iowa show Clinton with a 28 to 23 percent lead over Obama, with Edwards at 20 percent, and in North Carolina Clinton has 32 percent, with Edwards at 24 percent and Obama at 21 percent.

In New Hampshire, this week's poll of the Republican candidates show unannounced candidates Fred Thompson with 8 percent and Newt Gingrich with 4 percent and no one else above 2 percent, while 13 percent are undecided. The poll sampled 600 likely voters - 410 registered Republicans and 190 undeclared - between Aug. 26 and 29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The ARG polls showed Romney with a lead in Iowa with Giuliani second and Huckabee third, and in North Carolina, Giuliani with 26 percent, Thompson with 21 percent, McCain at 12 percent, and Romney and Huckabee with 9 percent.

By Garry Rayno, New Hampshire Union Leader, August 31, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton could carry the Empire State in 2008, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 55 per cent of respondents would support the New York senator in the next United States presidential election.

Republican former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 33 per cent. In addition, seven per cent of respondents would vote for another candidate, and two per cent remain undecided.

Rodham Clinton-a former first lady-has served in the U.S. Senate since 2001. In November 2006, she earned a new six-year term in the upper house, defeating former Yonkers mayor John Spencer with 67 per cent of all cast ballots.

Giuliani served as New York City's head of government from 1994 to 2001. He garnered national and international attention in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In 2000, Giuliani withdrew from a campaign to the U.S. Senate-where he would have faced Rodham Clinton-after being diagnosed with prostate cancer.

In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry carried New York's 31 electoral votes, with 58 per cent of the vote. No Republican has won the Empire State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 30, 2007

WASHINGTON - The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers on Thursday endorsed Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Mike Huckabee in the presidential primaries, while John Edwards picked up the backing of the carpenters' union.

Edwards' courting of labor finally paid off with his first national union endorsement from the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America. The union has 530,000 members, one-third who say they are registered Republicans, and was friendly with President Bush although it stayed out of the 2004 race. Carpenters President Douglas McCarron said in a statement that the union believes the former North Carolina senator will have broad appeal in the general election and that his strong stand on trade and his active work on picket lines "made him the obvious, and to our leadership, only choice in this election."

Asked why Clinton didn't get the union's support, spokesman Monte Byers said: "We don't have anything against Senator Clinton, but we are concerned that she's surrounded by the same economic advisers who created NAFTA," the North American Free Trade Agreement opposed by labor.

Clinton's endorsement from the Machinists was her second major union backing this week. She secured the endorsement of the 125,000-member United Transportation Union on Tuesday. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd earned a major boost to his candidacy, winning the backing of the 281,000-member International Association of Fire Fighters.

The Machinists union has 700,000 members and estimates a third of the membership votes Republican. It is the first time the union has done a dual endorsement. It chose to do so this year to encourage all members to participate in the election.

Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, beat out Edwards and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich for the endorsement. The union only considered candidates who appeared before members during its conference this week at the Walt Disney World Resort.

"Hillary Clinton earned the IAM's endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade - the bread and butter issues of the American middle class," union President Tom Buffenbarger said in a news release. "She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy."

Clinton said in a statement she was honored to received the union's endorsement. "It is time for America's working families to again share in our nation's prosperity," Clinton said. "They will not be invisible to my administration."

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, was the lone Republican to address the conference. Mike Huckabee was the only Republican candidate with the guts to meet with our members and the only one willing to figure out where and how we might work together," said Buffenbarger. "He is entitled to serious consideration from our members voting in the upcoming Republican primaries."

Byers said the union was planning to kick off its support with a membership rally in New Hampshire on Sept. 8. He said the union has not made an endorsement in a presidential primary for many years.

The carpenters' union is one of the top 100 overall political donors nationwide, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. It has given more than $17.5 million to federal candidates since 1989, with 93 percent going to Democrats and has more than 46,000 members in six states that are likely to hold early voting. Edwards said in a statement: "If we're going to grow the middle class and ensure fairness, we need to strengthen workers' rights." The International Association of Firefighters pledged thousands of boots on the ground to support Dodd's campaign, saying that their backing can make the differences in a state like Iowa where organization is key to a candidate's success. Though there are 1,570 IAF members in the state, their leaders said the union's impact would be magnified far beyond that number. The firefighters union launched a three-day tour to tout the move in key early states, beginning with Iowa. Union President Harold Schaitberger promised a repeat of the union's success in helping resurrect the Iowa campaign of John Kerry, who came from behind to win the Democratic nomination in 2004.

By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press, August 30, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton keeps a large advantage in the national race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 21 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 17 per cent, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with five per cent, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with three per cent.

On Aug. 27, Edwards questioned Rodham Clinton's relationship with interest groups, saying, "My lesson is not the same as hers. Her lesson is: give them a seat the table. I think if you give the drug companies, insurance companies and their lobbyists a seat at the table, they'll eat all the food." The New York senator dismissed Edwards' criticism, declaring, "My record shows I've been very effective. (...) I believe in working with everybody and being influenced by nobody."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 29, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton would carry the Golden State in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by KABC-TV. At least 56 per cent of respondents in California would vote for the New York senator in head-to-head contests against three prospective Republican candidates.

Rodham Clinton holds a 17-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 25-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and a 28-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the Golden State's 55 electoral votes, with 55 per cent of all cast ballots. The last Republican to win California in a presidential election was George H. Bush in 1988.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 29, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton holds the upper hand in Missouri, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. At least 46 per cent of respondents in the Show Me State would vote for the New York senator in head-to-head United States presidential contests against four prospective Republican candidates.

Rodham Clinton holds a three-point edge over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a six-point lead over both actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson and Arizona senator John McCain, and a nine-point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Missouri's 11 electoral votes, with 53 per cent of all cast ballots. Aside from the 1956 presidential election, the Show Me State has picked the eventual winner in every contest since 1900.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 29, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - A majority of voters in the Evergreen State would support Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by KING-TV. At least 55 per cent of respondents in Washington would back the New York senator in head-to-head contests against three prospective Republican candidates.

Rodham Clinton holds a 15-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 19-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and a 21-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry won Washington's 11 electoral votes, with 53 per cent of the vote. The last Republican to carry the Evergreen State in a U.S. presidential election was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 29, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Many adults in Oregon would vote for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 United States presidential election, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by KATU-TV. At least 52 per cent of respondents would back the New York senator in head-to-head contests against three prospective Republican candidates.

Rodham Clinton holds a 10-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 12-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and a 20-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry won Oregon's seven electoral votes, with 51 per cent of the vote. The last Republican to carry the Beaver State in a U.S. presidential election was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 29, 2007

(CBS) When the Iowa Republican Party held its annual straw poll in Ames earlier this month, the Republican hopefuls spent a lot of money buying up tickets to the poll, then giving them away free to people in the hope that their generosity would result in votes. The cost per ticket was $35.

But it looks like the contenders in both parties are well on pace to eclipse that dollar figure courting a much larger group of people - those who will participate in Iowa's Democratic and Republican caucuses, the kickoff event of the 2008 nominating process (even if they end up not happening in 2008 itself). According to an Associated Press report, the campaigns have spent $5 million advertising in Iowa, or about $25 for each expected caucus-goer. All before Labor Day. Already, two candidates, Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Bill Richardson, have spent so much on Iowa ads that they're going to surpass what John Kerry and Howard Dean spent during the entire Iowa campaign in 2003-04 - if they haven't already.

But candidate money isn't just going to radio and TV ads - it's also going to other candidates. The Des Moines Register notes that Barack Obama's political action committee has already divvied up $5,000 between the campaign funds of four Iowa Democrats who are up for re-election in 2008: Sen. Tom Harkin and Reps. Leonard Boswell, Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack. Joe Biden's PAC has given money to Democratic leaders in the Iowa legislature. And the state Democratic Party has received a whopping $500,000 from presidential candidates - the state GOP received more than $200,000 from its party hopefuls.

One facet of the discussion about the increasingly chaotic primary calendar focuses on Iowa's continued relevance to the nominating processes of both parties. Some columnists and TV pundits have speculated that the Hawkeye State will have to move its caucuses up so early that they'll cease to be relevant. But that decision isn't in the hands of the talking heads; it's up to the candidates.

There is no objective way to determine whether the Iowa caucuses will continue to play the significant role in the nominating process they've held for decades. But if the presidential candidates decide they're going to fight over Iowa, the results of that fight are going to be an important factor in deciding who gets each party's nod. The candidates have already spent millions of dollars in Iowa, and there's nothing that suggests the flow of money is drying up. Is it likely that, after spending so much money in one state, the campaigns will abandon it because it comes a little earlier on the calendar? Probably not, we guess.


Strategy Shift For Obama? Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama in national polls has been stable, or growing, for months. Obama is competitive in state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, but doesn't have a significant lead in any of them. The front-runner has also won positive reviews for her debate performances while Obama, especially in early appearances, seemed more tentative than expected. In fact, aside from beating her in the money race, Obama still hasn't found a way to get past Clinton in any respect.

Of course, there's nothing all that bad about being in second place when the first votes are still far away. Trouble is, those votes aren't really all that far away anymore, with the start of what should be a heated fall campaign only days away. So does the Obama campaign have a plan in place heading into this crucial phase?

A column by Jennifer Hunter in the Chicago Sun-Times suggests that's the case, saying that Obama plans on "taking bolder attacks against Clinton (note his description of her as "Bush-Cheney lite" on foreign affairs); retreating from many debates and presidential forums; presenting more detailed policies" like his plan for rebuilding the Gulf Coast, still struggling after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

David Axelrod, Obama's top strategist, told Hunter that the campaign is shifting from telling people who Obama is to telling them what he'd do as president. Winning that argument against the polished, experienced Clinton is no easy task, but it also might be the only way past her.



By David Miller, CNS News, August 28, 2007

WASHINGTON - The United Transportation Union on Tuesday endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president, the first national union endorsement of the 2008 campaign.
"The UTU has a long history of picking winners early. Hillary will be a president that America's working families can count on. Time and again, as a United States senator, she has stood with us," UTU President Paul Thompson said in a statement.
Clinton is leading in national polls for the Democratic nomination. She said that she was honored to get the endorsement.
"America's workers have been invisible to this administration, and it's time they had an advocate in the White House," said the New York Senator.

The UTU, which calls itself the largest railroad operating union in North America, represents 125,000 active and retired members in the railroad, bus and public transit industries.
The UTU also is one of the top political donors in organized labor, contributing $1.3 million in the 2004 federal elections, with 84 percent of the money going to Democratic candidates. The union gave $1.2 million in the 2006 elections, with 89 percent directed to the Democrats in a year in which the party reclaimed the House and Senate from the Republicans.
UTU was fourth on the Center for Responsive Politics' list of top transportation union contributors to political candidates.
All eight Democratic candidates have been courting the unions, participating in the AFL-CIO forum in Chicago earlier this month and touting their efforts to improve the lives of workers.
"Hillary Clinton's record has been friendly to working men and women of this country. She consistently has endorsed the necessity of a strong middle class," said the UTU's incoming president, Mike Futhey Jr. "The UTU will encourage its 125,000 active and retired members to support Hillary and other labor friendly candidates in 2008."
Several unions are expected to jump into the Democratic nomination fray as Labor Day approaches. The AFL-CIO, the nation's largest labor federation, has decided not to immediately endorse any of the Democratic candidates, freeing the federation's 55 member unions to endorse whoever they want.
For candidates, unions are critical for the money and the foot soldiers they can provide.
In the 2004 elections, organized labor gave $53.6 million to Democratic candidates and party committees, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That amount increased to $66 million for the 2006 elections and is expected to increase again for 2008.



Associated Press, August 28, 2007

In a race between two New York politicians, New York voters stay with the party line and prefer Hillary Clinton over Rudy Giuliani by a twenty-five point margin, 58% to 33%.

The former first lady is viewed favorably by 63% of New York voters, while America's Mayor is viewed favorably by 47%.

Voters are a lot tougher when grading the job performance of President Bush. Just 26% of Empire State voters say the President is doing a good or an excellent job while 61% say he is doing a poor job. Governor Elliot Spitzer earns good or excellent reviews from 45% and poor marks from 17%.

Clinton has consistently led all Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Giuliani has held a less comfortable lead on the Republican side.

The survey also found that just 36% of New Yorkers want Michael Bloomberg to run for President but 57% think it would be good for the state if the next President comes from New York.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) name the War on Terror as the top issue of Election 2008 while 23% name the economy. Democrats are evenly divided between the two while Republicans overwhelmingly see the War on Terror as more important.

New York voters narrowly prefer Clinton over Giuliani when it comes to handling the War on Terror, but unaffiliated voters are a bit more comfortable with Giuliani.

On state issues, just 25% say that state and local political leaders are doing a good or excellent job with the state's bridges and infrastructure issues.

In Primary Polls, Clinton leads all Democrats in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The Republican Primary picture is more muddled. Romney leads in New Hampshire, Thompson leads in South Carolina, and Giuliani is on top in Florida.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely New York Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports in patnership with FOX Television Stations, Inc. on August 22-23, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports, August 28, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton leads three prospective Republican rivals in Iowa, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by KAAL-TV. At least 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in head-to-head 2008 United States presidential contests.

Rodham Clinton holds a 12-point lead over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a 13-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and an nine-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Iowa's seven electoral votes, with 50 per cent of all cast ballots. No GOP nominee had carried the Hawkeye State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 27, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight edge over Republican Rudy Giuliani in Pennsylvania, according to a poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 46 per cent of respondents in the Keystone State would vote for the New York senator in the 2008 United States presidential election, while 44 per cent would back the former New York City mayor.

Giuliani also holds a five-point advantage over Illinois senator Barack Obama, and a two-point edge over former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

In other match-ups, Arizona senator John McCain trails Rodham Clinton by six points, Obama by three points, and Edwards by eight points. The three Democratic presidential hopefuls hold double-digit leads over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry carried Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, with 51 per cent of the vote. No Republican has won the Keystone State since George H. Bush in 1988.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 27, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton leads three prospective Republican rivals in the North Star State, according to a poll by SurveyUSA released by KSTP-TV. At least 47 per cent of respondents in Minnesota would vote for the New York senator in head-to-head 2008 United States presidential contests.

Rodham Clinton holds a three-point edge over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a nine-point advantage over actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, and a 16-point lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, with 51 per cent of all cast ballots. The last Republican to win the North Star State in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 27, 2007

Two larger-than-life politicians, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan, charged into the California governor's office with the help of young voters, many of whom were drawn to the Republican Party by a message of sunny optimism. But what those two very different Republican politicians did to attract millions of young adults looks to be a feat the Grand Old Party may not repeat anytime soon - either in California or on the national level in the 2008 presidential election.

A Democracy Corps poll from the Washington firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner suggests voters ages 18 to 29 have undergone a striking political evolution in recent years. Young Americans have become so profoundly alienated from Republican ideals on issues including the war in Iraq, global warming, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration that their defections suggest a political setback that could haunt Republicans "for many generations to come," the poll said.

The startling collapse of GOP support among young voters is reflected in the poll's findings that show two-thirds of young voters surveyed believe Democrats do a better job than Republicans of representing their views - even on issues Republicans once owned, such as terrorism and taxes.

And among GOP presidential candidates, only former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani registers with more positive views than negative with young voters, the poll shows.

The anti-GOP shift for this generation - which is expected to reach 50 million voters, or 17 percent of the electorate, in 2008 - represents a marked contrast from their predecessors, the Gen Xers born in the mid-'60s to mid-'70s whose demographic represented the strongest Republican voters in the nation, pollster Anna Greenberg said. Today, "on every single issue, Democrats are doing better with young people - no matter what the issue is," said Greenberg.

Catherine Brinkman, 28, of Foster City, who heads the California Young Republicans, said she hears from many of her Republican friends who say, " 'Look at our (presidential) candidates compared to the Democrats: They have Hillary, everyone knows her ... and you have this phenomenal (senator) out of Chicago, who is African American and energized.' " The perception is that "we're still selling the same old white guys," Brinkman said.

The problem for the Republicans with young voters may be especially potent in California, where political veterans say the widening gulf between Schwarzenegger and the increasingly conservative tilt of Republican elected officials threatens a party that already has found it difficult to win statewide for the past 15 years. "I think you have to be concerned when you have some (Republican) people who are saying that global warming is a hoax and that status quo for health care is acceptable," said Adam Mendelsohn, the communications director for Schwarzenegger. "These are all positions that don't reflect where Republicans are in this state - and this is especially true when you start looking at young Republicans."

Schwarzenegger, by supporting issues "once owned by the Democrats," such as the environment and education, has lured many young voters to support him and "closely identify themselves as Schwarzenegger Republicans," Mendelsohn said. But Democratic strategist Garry South said Schwarzenegger's success at the polls won't translate to other Republican candidates. South pointed toward the recent state budget battle, which pitted Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislators against conservative GOP senators who delayed the $145 billion budget for almost two months to pressure for more cuts and protections for businesses against environmental lawsuits. The demands of the state senators, South said, were so far to the right of the average voter that "the Republican brand in California now is so tainted and toxic that the only way you're going to win is to buy yourself out of the brand." That means wealthy GOP candidates such as Schwarzenegger or Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner must dip into their considerable bank accounts to "spend millions and tell voters why you're different. But if not - you will go down like lambs to the slaughter," South said.

In California, the GOP's relatively weak prospects in the presidential election and in future statewide elections can be traced to what has been an increasingly tone deaf approach to a new set of priorities among voters, particularly the young, said Cal State Sacramento political communications Professor Barbara O'Connor. "The fact that the governor's rating is around 60 percent is indicative of the legacy solutions that he proposes are resonating with the voters," including health care, infrastructure issues and education, O'Connor said. "When a bridge is collapsing, the levees are in danger of flooding, or they're sitting in gridlock ... people don't care about, 'I saved you this much money,' " O'Connor said of the traditional Republican effort to cut the budget. "They care when their life is better. Parties should try to fix things - or ignore them at their peril."

Greenberg said the poll showed the war in Iraq and President Bush are unpopular with younger voters, which contributed to the decline in support for the GOP.

Younger voters, who grew up in the Clinton years, are also increasingly at odds with the GOP and its leaders on social issues. "This is a more diverse generation, racially and ethnically, and it's more progressive on social issues like gay marriage," Greenberg said. "They see the Republican Party as profoundly different on tolerance and identity."

The poll also suggests the GOP is not addressing young voters' deep concerns about their future economic security. "Young people's economic struggles, more than any other issue, defines their political agenda," she said.

The study released last month of 1,017 voters ages 18-29 was conducted May 29-June 19. Voters were reached by a random telephone survey, through the Internet and on cell phones. The poll did not disclose a margin of error.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is a polling firm generally affiliated with Democrats. Its founder, Stan Greenberg, was a pollster for Democratic President Bill Clinton.

The GOP's problems for the future that show up in the poll are evident among young conservatives such as Wes Hanson, 17, a Livermore High School senior who describes himself as church-going, strongly anti-abortion and deeply concerned with the impacts of illegal immigration. But Hanson, who will cast his first presidential ballot in the 2008 election, is not sure he will register Republican - and is just as likely to be a "decline-to-state" or independent voter. "I feel that Republicans tend to look out more for the best interests of the majority," especially on fiscal issues and moral responsibility, Hanson says. But, like many in his age group, he has a libertarian streak and believes party lawmakers are wrong to try to legislate issues such as same-sex marriage. "I don't think it's any of the government's business," said Hanson, who says he is still not inspired by any of the GOP's 2008 presidential candidates.

Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, acknowledged the challenges that the Iraq war and other issues have created for the party, but said they are not insurmountable. "Obviously, this is a tough political environment for our party, but we believe our brand of individual responsibility, lower taxes and national security is one that resonates with youth voters," he said

By Carla Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle, August 27, 2007

The Democratic National Committee sought to seize control of its unraveling nominating process yesterday, rejecting pleas from state party leaders and cracking down on Florida for scheduling a Jan. 29 presidential primary.

The DNC's rules and bylaws committee, which enforces party rules, voted yesterday morning to strip Florida of all its delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver -- the harshest penalty at its disposal. The penalty will not take effect for 30 days, and rules committee members urged officials from the nation's fourth-most-populous state to use the time to schedule a later statewide caucus and thus regain its delegates.

By making an object lesson of Florida, Democrats hope to squelch other states' efforts to move their voting earlier, which have created chaos in the primary structure that the national party has established. But the decision to sanction such a pivotal, vote-rich state has risks. The party punished Delaware in 1996 for similar rules violations. But Florida, a mega-state that has played a pivotal role in the past two presidential elections, is different. The clash leaves the presidential candidates in limbo about how to campaign there.

Asked what Hillary Rodham Clinton's plans are for the state, Harold Ickes, a DNC member and adviser to the New York senator, said, "I don't think anyone's going to answer that question, or cross that bridge, until we see what happens in the next 30 days." Bill Burton, a spokesman for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), said, "Hopefully, in the next 30 days, Florida and the DNC can reach agreement so Florida's delegates can contribute to the nomination contest."

Florida's state party chair, Karen L. Thurman, showed no signs of backing down yesterday. The former congresswoman said she will consult with state Democrats but added that she expects all the presidential candidates to ignore the national party's edict and campaign vigorously in advance of the Sunshine State's primary. "Whether you get a delegate or don't get a delegate, a vote is a vote," a defiant Thurman said. "That is what Floridians are going to say is important."

The DNC rules stipulate that states that have not been granted a special waiver must schedule presidential nominating contests after Feb. 5. "Rules are rules," said DNC member Garry S. Shays, of California, at the meeting. "California abided by them, and Florida should, as well. To ignore them would open the door to chaos." Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states' desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

I understand how states crave to be first. I understand that they're envious of the role that Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally played," said Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "The truth is, we had a process. . . . We're going to back these rules."

Though the DNC's action was well-telegraphed, it came after emotional pleas from state party leaders, who blamed the initial selection of the date on Republicans who control the legislature. Thurman said she and her staff spent "countless hours" trying to persuade the legislature to pick another date. Jon Ausman, a DNC member from Florida, begged his colleagues to make an exception for Florida because of those efforts. "We're asking you for mercy, not judgment," Ausman said. The rules committee was largely unmoved; only one member -- Florida's Allan Katz -- voted against imposing the sanctions.

Under the caucus alternative proposed yesterday, voters could still go to the polls on Jan. 29 to express their preferences for a presidential nominee, but the results would be ceremonial, much like the results of the Republican straw poll held in Ames, Iowa, this month. "It's essentially a beauty contest. . . . There are no delegates now," said Alexis Herman, co-chair of the rules committee.

Thurman and other state leaders said there are several problems with the caucus suggestion. She said a caucus could cost the state party as much as $8 million -- money she said the party and its benefactors do not have. She said a caucus in a state the size of Florida would be impractical and would have the effect of allowing far fewer people to participate. State party officials also said they prefer to keep the official voting on Jan. 29 because a property tax initiative they hope to defeat will be on the ballot that day. Turning the Democratic presidential primary into a meaningless event would probably mean lower turnout among the party's faithful and make it harder to defeat the initiative, they said. "Defeating a horrible referendum on Jan. 29 . . . is a top priority for every constituent group I am aware of," said Terrie Brady, a DNC member and former chair of the Florida state party.

Thurman declined to say whether she or state officials are likely to file a lawsuit against the national party, as was suggested by Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) during a conference call Friday. "Yeah, this is emotional for me, and it should be," she said. Asked whether she thought Florida had been treated fairly, she said, "We'll see in 30 days."

Both political parties have struggled over the years to determine how best to nominate their presidential candidates.

Iowa and New Hampshire have dominated that process since the late 1960s, in part by arguing that their relatively small size allows candidates to have more personal contact with voters. But in recent years, larger states and those with more ethnic diversity have argued that they should be at the front of the process, too. This year, those pressures have pushed presidential voting earlier than ever. "I think this whole system is goofy. It's all out of kilter," Ickes said. "I think we start way too early." Alice Germond, a West Virginia member of the DNC, said that "the process is still a mess."

The national parties face the prospect of further confrontations: South Carolina Republicans have moved their primary to Jan. 19, a decision that may force New Hampshire and Iowa to vote earlier in January. And Michigan's legislature is on the verge of approving a Jan. 15 date -- a move that would violate the same Democratic rule that Florida faces punishment for breaking.
The Michigan Republican State Committee voted yesterday to endorse the new date. "Moving up the primary will make Michigan the first major industrial state to hold a presidential primary and will give our voters a chance to educate the next president of the United States about Michigan and its specific issues," state GOP Chairman Saulius "Saul" Anuzis said in a statement.

By Michael D. Shear, The Washington Post, August 26, 2007

OAKS BLUFF, Mass. - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton returned to her favorite family vacation spot Saturday to raise money for her presidential campaign at a celebrity-studded event where she took some pointed swipes at President Bush.

Clinton - accompanied by her husband and their daughter Chelsea - smiled broadly and swayed to the music as singer Carly Simon and her two children, Ben and Sally Taylor, sang "Devoted to You" for a Martha's Vineyard crowd of more than 2,000. Simon, along with actors Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen, showered the Clintons with praise and predicted the senator from New York will be elected as the nation's first woman president.

"Is it Mrs. President or Madam President?" Simon asked a smiling Clinton.

The Clintons frequently vacationed on Martha's Vineyard during their years in the White House. The senator told the crowd that the family has been vacationing in the island for 14 years.

Bill Clinton told the crowd his wife would make the strongest president among those seeking to succeed Bush in January 2009 because she has the best plans to deal with national security, climate change, health care and education. "If we were not married and Hillary asked me to do this, to be here tonight, I would be here," the former president said.

In her speech, the New York senator blasted the Bush administration on everything from failure to address problems with global warming to education and the economy.

She aimed her sharpest remarks at what she described as the Bush administration's "indifference and incompetence" in dealing with Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. "It is a national disgrace," said Clinton who is traveling to New Orleans this week to mark the second anniversary of the disaster. "What happened because of Katrina was a turning point in our country."

Clinton also sharply criticized Bush for his handling of the Iraq war, repeating her call for the U.S. to begin withdrawing its troops from the country. "I believe that if he does not extricate us from Iraq by the time he leaves office, that when I am president I will," she said. "I want to be a president who gets back to setting big goals for our country."

The $50-per-ticket event was expected to raise more than $100,000 for the campaign.

By Denisa Lavoie, Associated Press, August 25, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) - Florida Democrats could lose their votes for the presidential nominee next year unless they change plans to hold their primary earlier than national party rules allow.
The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee was poised Saturday to vote against Florida's plans for a Jan. 29 primary and to strip the state of delegate votes at the national convention in Denver next year, several party officials said.

With other states rushing to set early nominating contests, Florida offers the first test of the DNC's resolve to restore order to the schedule it set last year. Michigan and New Hampshire also are considering moving up their voting, in violation of the party rules. Several party officials said they want to take a tough stand against Florida and send a message to other states. The shifting dates have added some uncertainty to the presidential candidates' campaign plans with the first votes to be cast in less than five months.

Advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who has a wide lead in Florida polls, said she will go wherever elections are held. But the DNC has threatened to penalize candidates who campaign in states that violate the rules.

Other candidates are waiting to see how the dispute shakes out. Sen. Barack Obama's schedule had him raising money in Florida on Saturday, but his campaign said the Illinois senator might not return often during the primary season.

Party rules say states cannot hold their 2008 primary contests before Feb. 5, except for Iowa on Jan. 14, Nevada on Jan. 19, New Hampshire on Jan. 22 and South Carolina on Jan. 29. Florida ignored that calendar and passed a law setting its date for Jan. 29. According to the rules, a violation means penalties: The Democratic congressional delegation and DNC members from Florida would lose their votes for the nominee at the Denver convention. Also, the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee would decide whether to strip Florida of anywhere from half to all of its 185 other delegates to the convention.

The state party would have 30 days to change its plan before the sanctions would go into effect. Florida's Democratic lawmakers are pledging to fight back. "We are quite concerned that Florida Democrats are going to lose their right to vote,'' Sen. Bill Nelson told reporters Friday. Recalling the 2000 presidential election controversy in Florida, he added, "And of all states, we have the sensitivity of this because of what we have gone through.''

In 2000, the election between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore was held up for a recount in Florida. The Supreme Court stopped the recount, and Bush won the state by 537 votes.

Michigan's Legislature has taken up a bill that would move its contest to Jan. 15, but the state party submitted a proposal that for now describes a caucus on Feb. 9. New Hampshire's secretary of state says he may move up the state's primary, but for now the party has submitted a plan for Jan. 22, with the notation that the date is subject to change.

By Nedra Pickler, Associated Press, August 25, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - More Democratic Party supporters in the United States would like Hillary Rodham Clinton to become their presidential nominee next year, according to a poll by Harris Interactive. 43 per cent of respondents would back the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 27 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 12 per cent, and former U.S. vice-president Al Gore with 11 per cent. Support is lower for New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Delaware senator Joe Biden, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, retired general Wesley Clark, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.

Yesterday, Dodd introduced his plan to protect U.S. home owners affected by a recent mortgage crisis, saying, "Home ownership is the cornerstone of the American dream and essential to the strength of a healthy and vibrant middle class. It will take proven leadership that knows the issue and how to get things done, if we are going to get immediate action to help families threatened with foreclosure in the wake of the sub-prime mess and forge long term solutions to keep home loans affordable."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 25, 2007

TAMA, Iowa -- Sorry, all you political junkies in Florida, New York, California, Michigan and any other state maneuvering to have more say in picking the presidential nominees. Your opinion on the presidential contenders simply matters less than the view of Judy Huff, a retired pharmacy worker from Grinnell, Iowa. Your state leaders may not admit that, but most of the candidates and their political pros know it, and so does the earnest Huff, who makes a point of meeting as many presidential candidates as possible. "Yes, we get sick of all the phone calls from the campaigns, but we take this responsibility very seriously," said Huff, waiting recently to see Republican Mitt Romney in a rural coffee shop. "It's very fun to be able to see so many candidates in person and learn all we can learn first-hand, instead of relying on newspapers and TV to educate us."

For all the mad scrambling by states, including Florida, to snatch early presidential attention from Iowa and New Hampshire, there's no sign yet that Hawkeye or Granite staters are losing influence. Far from it.

"All this front-loading does is magnify the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire -- as long as they're first," said Mark Mellman, the pollster in 2004 for John Kerry, who won the Iowa caucuses and rode that momentum to the nomination. "A win in Iowa creates massive visibility. Historically, half the news coverage of the whole primary comes out of Iowa and New Hampshire."

But this time, the primary calendar is on the verge of imploding as state after state maneuvers to schedule its primary earlier than the next.

On Saturday in Washington, Florida Democrats are bracing for the possibility that the Democratic National Committee will strip the state of all its delegates to the national convention as punishment for scheduling a primary earlier than Feb. 5. Last spring, lawmakers in Tallahassee moved the state's primary date from March to Jan. 29.

Meanwhile, about 20 states have moved their primaries to Feb. 5, which has been dubbed "tsunami Tuesday." South Carolina Republicans moved their primary to Jan. 19. And to complicate matters, Michigan state senators voted on Wednesday to schedule their primary for Jan. 15. Michigan's state House has yet to consider the measure, but if it passes it probably would push Iowa and New Hampshire leaders to set still earlier elections.

"What happens in Iowa and New Hampshire really affects what happens in South Carolina and then Florida," said David Johnson, former executive director of the Florida GOP. "As long as Iowa and New Hampshire are in the front, they're always going to matter because the national media will be there." Virginia-based Republican pollster Jon McHenry said the prospect of Iowa moving its caucuses into December, which it might if more states move earlier into January, could cost Iowa influence. If the caucuses are lost amid the holidays, or if voters and candidates had a long period between the Iowa caucuses and the next contest, momentum from Iowa would diminish. "If they got pushed into going into December it would make it a slightly glorified straw poll," McHenry said.

A longtime pact

Since the mid 1980s, Iowa and New Hampshire have held to a strained bargain where Iowa holds the first caucuses -- basically neighborhood meetings of party activists across the state -- and New Hampshire holds the first primary in the presidential nominating season. Those states don't always pick the ultimate nominee, but they help prove viability and drive momentum. They also typically sink a candidate who performs poorly in both. The value and the weakness of the early state balloting is that Iowa and New Hampshire have small populations. That means Judy Huff can expect to meet the candidates herself, but it also means a relatively small group of voters has a very big say.

Consider: In 2004, about 125,000 Democrats turned out for the hotly contested Iowa caucus that vaulted Kerry into the nomination. Jim Davis got more Democratic votes in his failed bid for governor last year in Hillsborough County alone.

That's why states like Florida and Michigan, with big, diverse populations, have argued that they have a rightful place on the early presidential calendar.

And that's also why allies of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton see the front-loading of the 2008 primary calendar as particularly beneficial to them - especially in the case of Florida, where each leads the early polls.

Florida's vote falls just before Feb. 5, which is going to be a virtual national primary day with big states like New Jersey, New York, and California scheduled. Well-financed front-runners benefit most from a system like this.

But even with a loaded up schedule of big states, that doesn't mean Giuliani or anyone can afford poor showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire. "The history of primaries shows that it's very hard to hold onto your base of support if you're losing," Mellman said. "A strategy that counts on holding your base after losing Iowa and New Hampshire is a fatally flawed strategy."

Candidates in the past have bypassed Iowa - John McCain in 2000 and Wesley Clark in 2004 -- and come to regret it. Nobody is risking an overt snub of the state this year. The most important voters of this primary tend to notice those things. "If we're not good enough for them to come to Iowa," said Republican farmer Tom Heinz, 57, "I'm not interested in their candidacy."

By Adam C. Smith, St Petersburg Times, August 24, 2007

PRIMGHAR, Iowa - If Hillary Rodham Clinton wins Iowa's presidential caucuses, it won't be because of endorsements or poll numbers. It will be because of people like Carol McCarty, who lives in the state's heavily Republican northwest corner but plans to attend her local caucus and stand up for Clinton.

"Hillary's been through the mill," McCarty, who calls herself a retired homemaker, said at a recent Clinton campaign meeting at a Pizza Ranch restaurant here. "She took a lot of abuse as first lady, and hopefully she knows how to handle it. She's very strong, she's very smart and I'm glad she's a woman."

In Iowa, it's all about getting people to the caucuses on a cold night this winter.

Identifying supporters like McCarty - and persuading them to show up at the caucuses to choose delegates for each candidate - is the central challenge facing Clinton and her rivals in this important early voting state. Democratic candidates have mounted vast organizational efforts across Iowa, deploying hundreds of staff and volunteers to feed, court and cajole finicky caucus-goers months before a vote is cast. "Our organizers sit down with supporters, go to their homes, go to coffee with them and give them several ways to become involved," said Angelique Pirozzi, who runs Clinton's Iowa field program. "It's fundamentally a program of relationships."

Democratic rivals John Edwards and Barack Obama have also mounted strong operations in Iowa, and polls show a tight race here even as Clinton maintains a lead in national polls.

Much has changed here for Clinton since May, when a memo surfaced from her deputy campaign manager urging her to skip Iowa - "our consistently weakest state," in the memo's words. Since then, the campaign has redoubled its efforts in the state, opening 19 field offices and hiring more than 100 staffers. Supporters are being recruited to chair each of the state's 99 counties and 1,784 precincts. Clinton has stepped up her visits, and the campaign recently began running its first television commercials.

Identifying supporters and persuading them to caucus for a candidate remains a slow and meticulous process for all the campaigns. Democratic campaigns also focus much of their efforts in rural Republican-leaning counties, where even a handful of supporters showing up on caucus night can yield delegates for a candidate. In Primghar, just nine voters showed up for what was billed as the Clinton campaign's O'Brien County kickoff meeting. The group was treated to pizza and presentations by local field organizer Rebecca Slutzky and by Rep. Jay Inslee, who flew to Iowa from his home state of Washington. "I'm here because Iowa's the most important place to be. The rest of the world watches and waits to see who Iowa picks," Slutzky, a Virginia native, told the group. "If you're undecided and you want to hear more, we'll set up a meeting. I'll sit in your living room as long as it takes." To make their pitch, Slutzky and Inslee carefully went through talking points. Attendees listened and asked questions, but by the end most remained uncommitted. Only McCarty promised to attend the caucuses for Clinton.

"This has made my whole trip worthwhile!" Inslee said, asking McCarty if she'd be willing to call her friends and talk up Clinton's candidacy. "I'll speak personally to people. I'm not a great phone person," McCarty replied.

It's equally slow going for Clinton's rivals in Iowa.

Edwards, who placed a close second to John Kerry in the 2004 caucuses, has staked his candidacy on winning Iowa this time. He and his wife, Elizabeth, completed a five-day bus tour of the state last week, making stops in 31 communities. The campaign has opened 15 field offices and is running an extensive outreach program to the state's many rural areas. Edwards' Iowa spokesman, Dan Leistikow, spoke of the importance of "old-fashioned Iowa campaigning" - including canvassing, phone banks and organizational meetings - to identify supporters. The campaign has mailed out thousands of DVDs to Iowa Democrats outlining Edwards' proposed health care plan and has run commercials touting his opposition to the Iraq war. Leistikow said the campaign relies on visits from Edwards himself to make the strongest case. "We're giving people the chance to see him in small communities, town halls and house parties to let them see he's the candidate who's got the most substantive answers and the strongest ideas for change," Leistikow said. "We always sign up a lot of people after they see him."

Obama has perhaps the largest field operation in Iowa, with 29 offices across the state and more scheduled to open soon. But Steve Hildebrand, Obama's top field organizer, acknowledged that the Illinois senator remains "the new kid on the block." "A lot of Iowa voters still don't know much about Barack, and we are going up against the woman who has tried to portray herself as the eventual nominee. We have a big job ahead of us," Hildebrand said. To that end, the campaign has run television commercials outlining Obama's biography and has mailed a biographical DVD to thousands of past caucus-goers. It is also relying on extensive phone banking and one-on-one meetings. Volunteers and staff are all on hand to make the pitch to voters, and surrogates like campaign manager David Plouffe and media adviser David Axelrod have flown in to help out. Obama finished a five-day bus tour of the state last week during which he met with voters in a variety of small and medium-size settings. He's stepped up those appearances in part to address grumbles from Iowa activists early in the campaign that he was favoring large rallies over more intimate gatherings Iowa caucus-goers have come to expect. As for Obama's much-touted effort to bring new and younger people into the political process, Hildebrand said the effort was full speed ahead in Iowa - a tall order, since just 10 percent of Democratic caucus-goers in 2004 were under 35. "We have a very motivated base of supporters - young people, others - and we're not going to have any difficulty getting to them to show up on the most important day in the election," Hildebrand said. He said the campaign expected to see a number of Republicans and independents show up on caucus night, in order to re-register as Democrats to support Obama.

Among the other candidates, Bill Richardson has mounted an aggressive push in Iowa in recent weeks and has 13 offices in the state. Chris Dodd has eight offices, and Joe Biden has six. Both have spent considerable time in the state in the past month, even as they struggle in polls.

By Beth Fouhy, Associated Press, August 24, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for Mitt Romney among Republican Party supporters in Iowa increased this month, according to a poll by Zogby International for NewsMax. 33 per cent of likely GOP voters in the Hawkeye State would back the former Massachusetts governor in the 2008 United States presidential caucus.

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 14 per cent, followed by actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson with 12 per cent, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with eight per cent, and Arizona senator John McCain with six per cent. Support is lower for Kansas senator Sam Brownback, Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo, Texas congressman Ron Paul, and California congressman Duncan Hunter.

On Aug. 11, Romney won the Iowa straw poll with 31 per cent of the vote. Giuliani and McCain did not take part in the process.

In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 30 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 23 per cent, Illinois senator Barack Obama with 19 per cent, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 10 per cent. Support is lower for Delaware senator Joe Biden, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd, and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican caucus unopposed.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 24, 2007

NEW YORK - Could the 2008 presidential election come down to a choice between two New Yorkers? It sure looks that way today, as New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remain the clear front-runners for their respective party's nominations in the latest FOX News poll. While the leaders remain the same, there has been some re-arranging among the top tier candidates on the Republican side, as Mitt Romney bests John McCain for the first time.

The new poll shows that Clinton holds a double-digit lead over Barack Obama, topping him by 13 percentage points - 38 percent to 25 percent - among Democrats. That's down slightly from a 16-point edge in July. John Edwards is third and is now in single digits with 8 percent.

Some of the recent squabbling among the Democratic front-runners may be turning off some voters, because despite lots of campaigning and debates, the number of undecided Democratic voters is 15 percent today - double the number that said they were unsure two months ago (7 percent, June 26-27).

Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from August 21 to August 22. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

When Former Vice President Al Gore is included in the race, the results remain about the same. Gore takes a couple of points from each of the main contenders, but the overall outcome still shows Clinton (35 percent) outdistancing Obama (23 percent). Gore captures 10 percent and Edwards trails with 6 percent. "As time passes, even hardcore Gore fans are taking his statements about not getting in the race more seriously," said Opinion Dynamics CEO John Gorman. "By next month the window for dark horses to enter either race will pretty much close unless a top candidate takes a huge fall."

Among Republicans, Giuliani receives the backing of 29 percent, which puts him 15 percentage points ahead of his closest competitor - yet-to-announce Fred Thompson at 14 percent. Mitt Romney comes in third with 11 percent and now has the advantage over McCain at 7 percent. The Arizona Senator's support has dropped to about half what it was last month, and now he is just 2 percentage points ahead of Newt Gingrich (5 percent). While Gingrich has yet to make a formal announcement about his candidacy, he was recently spending time in Iowa during the straw poll process. And similar to the Democrats, many Republicans remain undecided. Nearly one in four Republicans (23 percent) say they don't know which candidate they would vote for if the primary were held today.

Job Ratings

Most Americans are unhappy with Washington: a 60 percent majority disapproves of the job Congress is doing and 56 percent disapprove of President Bush's job performance.

About one of five people (24 percent) say they approve of the job Congress is doing, including 26 percent of Democrats and 23 percent of Republicans. Approval of Congress was 29 percent in November 2006, right before the mid-term elections. Since the Democrats took control at the beginning of the year, approval has gone as high as 35 percent (April 2007). And though Republicans are more likely to disapprove of this Congress, they are not alone: 56 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents as well as 63 percent of Republicans say they are dissatisfied.

As for President Bush, his approval rating is 33 percent, up one point from 32 percent last month (July 17-18). A 63 percent majority of Republicans approves of Bush, as do 21 percent of independents and 11 percent of Democrats.

Support for New Legislation - A Passengers' Bill of Rights

Maybe Congress could improve its ratings by passing some legislation Americans think would be useful. By more than two-to-one (57 percent to 24 percent) the public supports passage of an Airline Passengers' Bill of Rights that would require airlines to provide passengers with things like fresh water and clean bathrooms, as well as possibly the right to exit the airplane when there are flight delays.

By Dana Blanton, FOX News, August 23, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Fred Thompson holds the top spot among the Republican Party's presidential hopefuls in South Carolina, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 23 per cent of GOP supporters in the Palmetto State would vote for the actor and former Tennessee senator in the 2008 primary.

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 21 per cent, followed by Arizona senator John McCain with 14 per cent, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 10 per cent, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee with six per cent.

In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is first with 38 per cent, followed by Illinois senator Barack Obama with 30 per cent, former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 13 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden with three per cent, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with two per cent.

The Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina is tentatively scheduled for Jan. 29, 2008, after the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. The Republican contest in the Palmetto State is expected to take place on Jan. 19.

In 2004, Edwards won the Democratic South Carolina primary with 45 per cent of the vote, followed by Massachusetts senator John Kerry with 30 per cent, reverend Al Sharpton with 10 per cent, retired general Wesley Clark with seven per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with five per cent, and Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman with two per cent. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the Republican convention unopposed.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 23, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a slight advantage against a prospective Republican presidential nominee in the United States, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator, while 44 per cent would vote for Arizona senator John McCain.

Support for both Rodham Clinton and McCain in this match-up increased by one point since early August. In a separate contest, Rodham Clinton holds an 11-point advantage over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney

Yesterday, Rodham Clinton discussed her views on the Iraq war, saying, "It is abundantly clear that there is no military solution to the sectarian fighting in Iraq. We need to stop refereeing the war, and start getting out now." The New York senator also expressed hope for Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to be replaced "with a less divisive and more unifying figure."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The next presidential election is scheduled for November 2008.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 23, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a high level of support in the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in the United States, according to a poll by Gallup released by USA Today. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the New York senator in a 2008 primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 21 per cent, followed by former U.S. vice-president Al Gore with 15 per cent, and former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 11 per cent. Support is lower for New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Delaware senator Joe Biden, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd.

On Aug. 21, Obama discussed his views on Cuba in an op-ed published in the Miami Herald, writing, "We must not lose sight of our fundamental goal: freedom in Cuba. At the same time, we should be pragmatic in our approach and clear-sighted about the effects of our policies. We all know the power of the freedom and opportunity that America at its best has both embodied and advanced."

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, August 23, 2007

LEBANON, N.H. - Hillary Rodham Clinton promised Thursday that as president she would improve health care quality by raising standards for providers, educating patients and requiring insurers to reward innovation.

While rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards have proposed detailed health care overhaul plans, Clinton is taking an incremental approach. She started with a speech in June on reducing costs, followed by Thursday's address on quality, and will outline her plan for universal health care coverage next month.

"My order here is deliberate," said Clinton, a New York senator. "In order to forge a consensus on universal health care, we need to assure people that they will get the quality they expect at a cost they can afford."

"Too often, and in too many places, our health care system hurts us instead of helps us," Clinton said at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center. "It hurts doctors, who aren't rewarded for providing the best care and are often punished for it financially. It hurts nurses who are asked to work longer hours, caring for more patients with fewer resources. And it hurts patients, who are forced to make complicated medical decisions without basic information about their conditions and options."

To improve quality, Clinton said she would promote physician certification programs that help doctors keep up with the latest advancements, increasing Medicare reimbursements for doctors who participate in them. Nursing care would get a boost in the form of $300 million to expand enrollment in nursing schools, create mentoring programs for recent graduates and recruit more minorities into the profession. "The nursing shortage has become a nursing crisis, and that means it is a crisis for everyone," Clinton said. "Our nurses are truly the eyes and ears, and in many ways the heart and soul of our health care system. When we've got fewer nurses, working longer hours and serving more patients, the result can be worse outcomes."

Patients, too, can play a role in improving the quality of health care they receive, she said, if they are given more information about their treatment options. She praised Dartmouth-Hitchcock's Center for Shared Decision Making, saying she would like to see similar programs nationwide.

Clinton also called for overhauling a reimbursement system that she said often punishes doctors for doing the right thing - spending time with patients or working with their colleagues to take a collaborative approach. She proposes higher payments to providers who use teams to provide coordinated care and ending payments for preventable infections and injuries sustained during hospital stays.

"We need a system that encourages instead of discourages quality," she said.

Speaking later in Manchester, Clinton said her universal health care plan would not involve a single-payer government system. Instead, she said, she would consider expanding Medicare and allow people to join the federal employees insurance program. "I think you don't want to take choices away from Americans. We're big on choice here. But you've got to have some framework so the choices work better," she said. Clinton said she also would consider allowing people to purchase health insurance from companies outside their states. "There is no really strong argument anymore why you couldn't buy insurance across state lines to get better deals," she said. "Why should you be limited to what companies want to come into New Hampshire?"

By Holly Ramer, Associated Press, August 23, 2007

During his swan-song media tour last week, departing White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove made a point of telling everyone who would listen that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is "fatally flawed" as a candidate because she has a historically high negative public impression. "She enters the general election campaign with the highest negatives of any candidate in the history of the Gallup Poll," he said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Not so fast, says Gallup. In a new analysis posted today, Gallup's Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones and Joseph Carroll write that "a review of historical Gallup data suggests that contrary to Rove's assertions, her current image ratings do not necessarily spell defeat." While it is true that Clinton has high unfavorable ratings, they write, her numbers are not that different from at least two other candidates who have gone on to win -- Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2004.

Here's the data: In the latest Gallup poll, Hillary Clinton is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent. That's definitely not an enviable position for a candidate. But the Gallup crew points out that Bill Clinton's unfavorability rating hit 49 percent in April 1992 and Bush's hit 47 percent at the end of January and beginning of February 2004. Both, obviously, went on to win. In some of his interviews, Rove seemed to be stressing the fact that her negatives are so high so early in the campaign, the presumption being that they could only go up as the campaign progresses. The Gallup guys note that she's no ordinary candidate trying to introduce herself to the voting public and that her numbers have gone up and down over the years and could again.

"Clinton is already known to almost all Americans," they write, "and opinions of her are already divided along partisan lines, so the normal campaign dynamics likely do not apply to her. But just as it is possible for Clinton's image to improve during the campaign, it ... also could get worse. However, that would more than likely be the result of a specific negative incident, rather than the normal dynamics of a presidential campaign."

By Peter Baker, The Washington Post, August 22, 2007

Two pieces of good news for Hillary Clinton's campaign today:

1) A new Gallup poll shows her shows her wide lead holding steady - a 48 to 25 percent margin over Barack Obama, with John Edwards at 13 percent. Yes, it's easy to dismiss national polls like this, given the momentum that Obama and Edwards are banking on from success in the early states next January. But...

2) There's a new early state in the mix, and it's a good venue for Hillary. Michigan is now set to schedule a primary for January 15, potentially making it the third of the early nominating contests.

Michigan's pols are unanimous in wanting to move their date up, but the hidden story here is the debate over whether the January 15 contest should be a primary or a caucus. Traditionally, the labor-dominated state has held a Democratic caucus, which has skewed the results in favor of candidates on the left - like Jesse Jackson, whose finest hour as a presidential candidate came with his landslide win in Michigan's '88 caucuses, and Jerry Brown, who finished a surprising second in 1992 (helping to usher Paul Tsongas from the Democratic race).

Not surprisingly, John Edwards' supporters in the state - most notably U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak and former Rep. (and current Edwards campaign manager) David Bonior - argued for a caucus in '08. But Republicans and key Democrats - like Governor Jennifer Granholm - wanted a primary, in which labors influence is not as pronounced and non-interest group voters have more of a voice. With today's 21-17 state Senate vote, Granholm and the Republicans won out - and so did Hillary.

By Steve Kornacki, The New York Observer, August 22, 2007

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Leading Democratic Party presidential hopeful, Hillary Clinton, on Wednesday urged the Iraqi parliament to get rid of embattled Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki saying he was not up to the job.

She was speaking after Senator Carl Levin, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, hinted after a two-day visit to Iraq that Maliki should go. Levin had "confirmed that the Iraqi governments failures have reinforced the widely held view that the Maliki government is nonfunctional and cannot produce a political settlement, because it is too beholden to religious and sectarian leaders," Clinton said in a statement.

"I share Senator Levin's hope that the Iraqi parliament will replace Prime Minister Maliki with a less divisive and more unifying figure when it returns in a few weeks."

Earlier Wednesday, President George W. Bush reaffirmed his support for the Iraqi leader, saying he was "a good guy, good man, with a difficult job, and I support him."

Clinton, who voted for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, has made withdrawing the 160,000 troops in the country a plank of her campaign to win the Democratic Party nomination for the 2008 presidential elections. "It is abundantly clear that there is no military solution to the sectarian fighting in Iraq. We need to stop refereeing the war, and start getting out now," she reiterated in her statement Wednesday.

AFP, August 22, 2007

Sen. Hillary Clinton has climbed to the top of the Democratic lineup in Iowa in a NewsMax/Zogby poll for the first time.

Former Sen. John Edwards, the 2004 vice presidential nominee, has been on top in most Iowa polls of Democrats this year.

But the poll made public Tuesday shows Clinton is supported by 30 percent of Iowa Democrats likely to attend their precinct caucuses next January. Edwards receives 23 percent support, and Sen. Barack Obama received 19percent support in the telephone poll taken last weekend by NewsMax/Zogby, a national opinion research company. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who had just 1 percent support in January, is now firmly in fourth place with 10percent, the new poll shows. Sen. Joe Biden follows with 3 percent. Sen. Christopher Dodd, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Sen. Mike Gravel each get 1 percent. Thirteen perc