DES MOINES -- Hillary Clinton will close out nearly a year of campaigning in Iowa with a New Year's Eve rally in downtown Des Moines late Monday night. It will be glitzy and splashy and will feature her most significant surrogate, her husband the former president.

But what is striking about the final days of one of the most fascinating campaigns any of us have witnessed here in Iowa is how Clinton has avoided becoming the focus of attention. The national front-runner has become, if not invisible, virtually ignored -- and that seems just the way she wants it.

Barack Obama and John Edwards have zeroed in on one another. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd hunger for attention. Clinton is methodically moving around the state, saying the same thing at virtually every stop. She has given a few interviews, but made little news.

The style is classic Hillary Clinton, the girl with the responsibility gene, the always-prepared student who never skips her homework. Her final days in Iowa are as disciplined as they are unexceptional -- except perhaps where it counts, in reaching out to Iowa voters. (But that we will not know until Thursday night.)

The campaigns are drowning in data but no one is certain about where the Democratic race is heading. Everyone here awaits the release of the Des Moines Register's final poll, which historically has been accurate in the order of finish, if not always the margins between the candidates.

But polling here is more treacherous than ever. Christmas interrupted opportunities to poll early last week. The weekend is never a good time to poll and particularly difficult between Christmas and New Year's. And the last days of the caucus campaign will be overtaken by celebrations ringing in the election year.

Beyond that, Iowans have stopped answering their phones. One Democrat estimated that proven caucusgoers are getting as many as 15 telephone calls a night from campaigns and pollsters. A young man I spoke to on Sunday night, who said he has attended more than 50 candidate events over the past year, said he gets about half a dozen each evening. Conditions for polling, as a result, couldn't be worse.

The campaigns are making their own phone calls to supporters and to undecided voters. They are working off elaborate and sophisticated targeting projections. The campaigns have their vote goals and all claim to be on track to meeting them. But all are based on assumptions of how large the turnout will be on Thursday -- and there the range of estimates is so large as to be laughable.

Eight years ago, just 59,000 Iowans participated in the Democratic caucuses. Four years ago that doubled to 124,181. This year estimates run to 140,000 or 160,000 -- or in the guesstimate of former Iowa Democratic chair (and Obama senior adviser) Gordon Fischer, up to 200,000 -- an astounding figure, but one which Fischer believes is plausible given the intensity that has been evident here for a year.

So campaign vote goals could be rendered virtually useless if there is an enormous surge in turnout on Thursday night. Everyone could hit their targets and find the numbers meaningless. In the face of that uncertainty, having a game plan and executing it is crucial, which is what all the campaigns believe they are doing.

But who would have guessed that Clinton would have avoided becoming the target in the final days in Iowa?

It has been long assumed that a victory here by the former first lady could start her on an unstoppable march to the nomination. In truth, the Democratic campaign has been surprisingly lacking in attack ads and negative campaigning. The Republican contest between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney has become far more negative in tone than the three-way battle among Clinton, Obama and Edwards.

One reason is that the risks of launching attacks in a three-way contest are far greater than in a two-way battle. Another is that Iowans genuinely like all the Democratic candidates and aren't anxious to see someone begin tearing down the others.

Bill Clinton made that point again Sunday night when he spoke in Carlisle, Iowa, just outside Des Moines. He likes all the candidates, he said, but Iowans have to decide which of them they think would make the best president.

There is a workaday quality to the Clinton message -- to the messages of both Clintons actually. Call it bread-and-butter or kitchen-table economics, but the Clintons have never forgotten what got Bill Clinton to the White House.

What got them there was a relentless focus on the middle class and a list of programmatic solutions aimed at easing the economic anxiety that many Americans felt then and feel today -- and the Clintons are still focused on such concerns.

Bill Clinton spoke for an hour on Sunday night, weaving together his wife's accomplishments (with some embellishment) over 35 years and his own record as president. He talked for 45 minutes before he managed to get to his wife's years in the Senate.

His speech was laced with policy past and future (he described how he and his wife solved so many problems that it begged the question of why there is still so much left for a Clinton presidency to do).

Hillary Clinton is doing the same in her own way at stop after stop in Iowa, head down, avoiding the chattering class. "We're locked and loaded on our message," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director. "Other candidates are making news by attacking other candidates. They're going to run their race. The race we're going to run is focusing people on who's ready to be president."

Clinton took hits earlier in the race and suffered from her own missteps. She and Obama have sparred over the past week on the questions of experience and change. Obama has tried to engage her further but has been distracted by the rise of Edwards -- leaving Clinton largely free to move through the state without distractions.

Who would have guessed that the person everyone wants to beat in Iowa would be finishing 2007 this way?

By Dan Balz, The Washington Post, December 31, 2007

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign. Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers.

The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register's poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners. It is also the only recent poll of Iowa caucusgoers showing Obama with a lead larger than the survey's margin of sampling error, which is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The telephone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Dec. 27-30.

In an indication of the Obama's appeal in Iowa, Democratic caucusgoers say they prefer change and unity over other leadership characteristics. Selecting a candidate who represents a sharp departure from the status quo is 56-year-old Lansing Democrat John Rethwisch's priority, and his main reason for backing Obama. "I have been seeing more and more something Kennedy-esque coming from Obama," said Rethwisch, Lansing's water and sewer administrator. "But it's always a gamble when you get somebody in there who hasn't got a proven track record."

Thirty percent of the poll's respondents said a candidate's ability to bring about change is the most important, followed by 27 percent who said their priority is choosing a candidate who will be the most successful in unifying the country.

Asked which candidate would do the best on these themes, caucusgoers most commonly name Obama. The first-term U.S. senator has argued in the closing weeks of the campaign that his newness to Washington, D.C., would help him bridge a politically divided nation and improve its standing overseas.

Having the experience and competence to lead, which has been the crux of Clinton's closing argument, was seen as the most important to 18 percent of caucusgoers, with Clinton as the candidate most commonly rated best on this trait.

The candidates routinely argue they are the best able to win in November, although only 6 percent of the poll's respondents identified being best able to win the general election as the top priority.

Rethwisch is also part of the majority of caucusgoers who plan to attend their first caucus Thursday. Sixty percent would be attending for the first time, reflecting the emphasis the campaigns have put on expanding the pool of participants.

All of the three leaders in Iowa draw a majority of support from new caucusgoers, although Obama benefits the most with 72 percent of his support coming from first-timers compared to 58 percent of Clinton's and 55 percent of Edwards'supporters.

Longtime Democrat Darlene Inman, 72, is a first-time caucusgoer who supports Clinton. The Mason City retired homemaker represents the heart of Clinton's support base, older women who are registered Democrats.

"She talks straight about helping everybody. She tells it like it is," Inman said.

Inman said she first motivated to participate in the caucuses because of dissatisfaction with President Bush. But she said she hesitated to back Clinton until she settled on her as the most qualified, in part because of her association former President Clinton.

"I was kind of doubtful, but then I stopped and thought that when Bill Clinton was president, jobs were plentiful and the country was running well," Inman said. "With Bush in there, it's been very worrisome and I think she can get in there and turn it around."

Clinton has made an aggressive effort to court female, first-time caucusgoers, especially younger women and those who are retired. Women account for 58 percent of caucusgoers, according to the survey.

Clinton has rebounded among female caucusgoers in general, pulling even with Obama at 32 percent after losing her edge among this key group to him in the previous Register poll.

Clinton receives more support from women 55 years old and older than her rivals, and she and Obama draw evenly from the pool of female caucusgoers between 35 and 54 years old.

However, she trails Obama badly among women under 35, with just 15 percent to his 57 percent.

Obama's advantage among younger women reflects his decided advantage among younger voters in general. A majority of caucusgoers under 35 support Obama, more than three times the support Edwards receives from them and five times Clinton's.

Caucusgoers under the age of 35 represent 17 percent of likely attendees, higher than any Register poll this year but lower than any other age group.

Clinton led narrowly in the Register's October poll, but slipped in the survey taken in late November. During that period Obama and Edwards sharpened their criticism of Clinton, who has led in national polls of Democratic preference. Likewise, Clinton went on the attack in November, questioning Obama's experience and characterizing his health care proposal as less than comprehensive.

Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey.

The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses.

Edwards' support has changed little since the last poll, when he was the choice of 23 percent of likely caucusgoers. He led the Register's May poll with 29 percent.

He remained the choice of older men and drew evenly with Clinton from caucusgoers 55 and older.

One such Democrat, 84-year-old Ruth Paulsen of Milford, said Edwards' charisma and message of economic fairness appeals to her. "I like the way he speaks, with energy and enthusiasm," said Paulsen. "The others are all right, but I like Edwards because he talks the most about change."

Despite aggressive campaigns in Iowa by Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, none has been able to break into the pack at the top. In fact, support for Biden and Richardson slipped somewhat in the new poll.

An analysis of likely caucusgoers' second choices showed that the results would change little if the votes for the lower-rated candidates were redistributed among the front-runners.

By Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register, December 31, 2007

3 front-runners hit the Sunday news shows, then pitch their messages across the state, as caucuses loom

DES MOINES -- Think of the Iowa Democratic presidential caucus as a contest of Olympians when it comes to the three front-runners, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

They are all running their personal best. But Thursday night, only one will come in first, and every poll shows it is too close to call.

These political Olympians have field and marketing organizations that have crunched data to death to pinpoint and turn out their likely supporters at these very peculiar public exercises of democracy called Democratic caucuses.

The battle is on the ground and in the air -- Iowa television is saturated with Democratic and GOP ads.

That allies of the cash-strapped Edwards are paying for spots helping him has increasingly become an issue for Obama, as the two battle for the same change-oriented, anti-Clinton, undecided voter. Edwards is on the uptick, some surveys suggest, with the race essentially a tie.

Edwards was on the defensive over those ads when pressed Sunday why he couldn't -- as a candidate running against corporate and special-interest money in politics -- do more to tell his friends to stop. His friends bankrolling the pro-Edwards ads include labor unions and a woman in her mid-90s, an heir to the Mellon fortune who donated $495,000 to one of those independent groups bolstering Edwards' candidacy, with the help of her lawyer, a long-time Edwards booster.

"I don't have control over them," Edwards told Bob Schieffer, host of CBS' "Face the Nation." Schieffer disagreed.

Meanwhile, on NBC's "Meet the Press," host Tim Russert was grilling Obama over a debatable claim in one of his television spots that his health insurance plan will "cover everyone."

Clinton and Edwards have health insurance plans with mandates. Obama's does not -- his relies more on market forces and government bullying to lower the costs of insurance. It has been a big issue.

Obama sidestepped whether his spot was a stretch. He said that under his plan, if people waited to buy insurance until they got sick, they should pay a penalty.

On ABC's "This Week with George Stephanopoulos," Clinton was lowering expectations in case she stumbles in Iowa. She's in the race for the "long term," she said.

After the shows, Edwards, Clinton and Obama barnstormed through Iowa.

The Obama and Clinton campaigns worked to crank up black voter turnout in Des Moines. Clinton visited an African-American church with daughter Chelsea. Both teams dispatched African-American surrogates to black churches.

At Union Baptist Church, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) delivered a stem-winder for Obama.

"It is real easy for me to come to Iowa and say we can win this little ol' state. And we can win New Hampshire and we can win South Carolina. We can elect us a president. All we got to do is believe. All we got to do is show up on time and caucus with someone," said Jackson.

I'm writing this at an Obama rally, in the gym at the Nathan Weeks Middle School here, in a delegate-rich part of Polk County. The precincts around here are supposedly Clinton turf. The place is packed as Obama is doing his stump speech for the fourth time today.

Earlier, I went to a rally for Edwards at another school here, and the hall was full.

Today, the front-runners will campaign up to and including New Year's Eve. This morning, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe will hold a conference call to assess the campaign, no matter the Iowa outcome.

"Seven days from now, we'll be at a rally in New Hampshire," Plouffe said as we talked in the gym. New Hampshire votes Jan. 8.

By Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times, December 31, 2007

DES MOINES - Just before the stroke of midnight on Monday, Senator Barack Obama will gather his Iowa staff members and volunteers from across the state, so they can all celebrate the new year together.

On a conference call.

So goes this New Year's Eve in Iowa, at least among the thousands of campaign staff members, volunteers, contributors, journalists and other hangers-on hunkering down in anticipation of the caucus here on Thursday. With many polls showing both the Democratic and Republican races as true tossups, 2008 arrives amid grueling last-minute campaign sprints. And instead of new beginnings, the turn of the calendar could mean, for some campaigns, the beginning of their ends.

The result is likely to be the most bizarre New Year's Eve many here can remember. There is a veneer of festivity - not every campaign's approach is as ascetic as Mr. Obama's - but it is a thin and transparent one. For many, the holiday feels cruelly ill-timed: How can they gaily celebrate the start of 2008 when in fact they are consumed with anxiety about what happens two days later?

"No one knows what 2008 will bring in terms of the political process," said Carolyn Weyforth, deputy communications director for former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, whose once-comfortable lead in the Iowa polls has been erased by former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. "The rest of the country is worried about whether they are going to lose weight this year, and our immediate thought is what's going to happen Jan. 3 and Jan. 8," she said, referring to the dates of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

While the campaigns took a mutually agreed-upon timeout for Christmas, New Year's Eve could play host to crucial developments in the race. Candidates will be campaigning up to and even throughout the evening, meaning that a major gaffe or verbal fusillades among contenders are possibilities. And The Des Moines Register is planning to release its final precaucus poll in its Jan. 1 issue, which will hit the paper's Web site in the final hours of Dec. 31.

There will be parties, of course: the campaigns of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney are holding events in downtown Des Moines; the campaign of former Senator John Edwards is having one at its office in Mason City; and Senator Christopher J. Dodd is holding one in Dubuque. It is a chance for the campaigns to thank their troops and rally them for the complex get-out-the-vote operation to come, but also to maintain some control of their mostly young staffs and volunteers on a night known for too much revelry. Campaigning will begin again early the next morning, and everyone must be ready for cheerful knocks on doors and articulate phone calls.

"No campaign wants to wake up on Jan. 2 with a D.U.I. story," said Jenny Backus, a longtime Democratic strategist with no ties to any of the contenders.

For the candidates with the lowest standing in the polls, the parties will probably have an elegiac air. Mr. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, has pinned his primary hopes on this state - he even moved here - and polls suggest he has virtually no chance of winning on Thursday. So his party sounds much like a goodbye-and-thank-you affair. "We're going to be celebrating all the work the senator and the volunteers have put in over the last year," said Colleen Flanagan, his press secretary.

Usually there is an elaborate social pecking order to those who descend on Des Moines right before a caucus, from the top strategists and donors mingling at downtown restaurants to the humble college students who bunk on sleeping bags in church basements. But this year, the former have become a lot more like the latter, with some of the powerful, influential types doing the lowliest of volunteer tasks.

Bettylu Saltzman, a Chicago philanthropist, spent her last New Year's vacationing in the Dominican Republic, and the one before that at her ski house in Colorado. This year, she has come to Iowa to canvass for Mr. Obama and has little idea of how she will spend the evening. "We're taking a Scrabble set," she said, to use at her hotel room.

Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic consultant who served as deputy campaign manager for Senator John Kerry in 2004, is volunteering for Mrs. Clinton in Waterloo - not commanding others, but doing the knocking and calling himself. Asked how he would spend the evening, he couldn't quite say. "Maybe back in my hotel room at the Ramada?"

While the top Des Moines restaurants have been booked for weeks, many of the political and news media celebrities who usually occupy those tables before the caucus are not arriving until Tuesday. The reporters and consultants who will fill those establishments, meanwhile, face the prospect of spending the most social night of the year with colleagues instead of loved ones. It's not quite spending Valentine's Day with co-workers, but it's close.

"Even the best work party is still work," said Jay Carson, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, who said he would try to slip away with his girlfriend but would probably spend most of the evening at campaign events instead.

The transformation of New Year's Eve into a work night seems like the logical, inevitable conclusion of a race that has swallowed the personal lives of everyone involved in it.

Take Jamie Smith, a member of Mrs. Clinton's traveling staff. Before she was hired or the caucus date was set, she planned her wedding for Monday night in Chicago. The wedding will last until 2 or 3 in the morning, she said, and a few hours later, she and her new husband will drive west so she can rejoin the campaign.

What about connubial bliss? Her new husband?

"I want Hillary Rodham Clinton to win so much," explained the bride, "and I love her tons."

By Jodi Kantor, The New York Times, December 31, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton is the top 2008 United States presidential contender for Democratic Party supporters in Iowa, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 30 per cent of decided voters in the Hawkeye State would vote for the New York senator in January's caucus.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 27 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 26.8 per cent, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 7.7 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden with 5.6 per cent, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd with 1.9 per cent, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with 0.8 per cent.

Since 1976, the Iowa caucus has kicked off the process of finding presidential nominees for the two major political parties in the United States. The caucus differs from a presidential primary because the casting of ballots in favour of a particular candidate is preceded by a "gathering of neighbours" where specific platform issues are discussed.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic Iowa caucus with 38 per cent, followed by Edwards with 32 per cent, former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 18 per cent, Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt with 11 per cent, and Kucinich with one per cent.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, December 31, 2007

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton is leading the United States presidential race among Democratic Party supporters in the Granite State, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 34.2 per cent of decided voters would support the New York senator in January's primary.

Illinois senator Barack Obama is second with 32.4 per cent, followed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards with 21.6 per cent, followed by New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 5.3 per cent, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with 3.5 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden with 2.3 per cent, and Connecticut senator Chris Dodd with 0.6 per cent.

New Hampshire traditionally hosts the first presidential primary in the United States. Since 1952, 11 Republicans and eight Democrats have won the Granite State contest and later earned their party's presidential nomination. New Hampshire allows independent voters to take part in primaries.

In 2004, Massachusetts senator John Kerry won the Democratic New Hampshire primary with 38.4 per cent, followed by former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 26.3 per cent, retired general Wesley Clark with 12.4 per cent, and Edwards with 12.1 per cent.

The Democratic New Hampshire primary will take place on Jan. 8, 2008.

Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research, December 31, 2007

DES MOINES - Iowa is packed with presidential candidates and hundreds of campaign aides, advisers and contributors. Twenty-five hundred representatives of news organizations have been granted credentials to cover the caucuses on Thursday night, twice as many as in 2004. Rarely has a political event been so intensely anticipated as a decisive moment, at least on the Democratic side. (It is different for Republicans since many of their major candidates are not competing fully here).

But what if it is not decisive?

What if at the end of Thursday, the three leading Democrats - John Edwards, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama - are separated by a percentage point, or even less, leaving no one with the clear right of delivering a victory speech, or the burden of conceding? A number of polls going into the finals days that of have suggested that after all of this, the Democratic caucus on Thursday night will end up more or less as a tie.

In truth, amid all the endless permutations of possible outcomes that are being discussed - can Mrs. Clinton survive a third -place finish, or Mr. Edwards a second-place one? - aides are beginning to grapple with the frustrating possibility that all the time, money, and political skill invested here might prove to be for naught when it comes to identifying the candidate to beat in the primaries and winnowing down the top tier.

Rather than clarify the state of play and consolidate this crowded field a bit, an outcome like that would almost certainly muddle it further and potentially extend the time before Democrats know their nominee.

Since none of them would be judged a decisive loser, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama would all be able to go on to New Hampshire, no questions asked. It would be hard for any candidate to play the "I beat expectations game" and claim some sort of chimerical victory, much the way Bill Clinton proclaimed himself the winner after coming in second in New Hampshire in 1992. And you can bet this: the other Democrats in the race - Christopher J. Dodd, Joseph R. Biden Jr., Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich - would feel less of the morning-after-Iowa pressure to pull out.

New Hampshire, which for Democrats has seemed something like a stepchild in this year's nominating process given all the attention being paid to Iowa, would get a chance to have some real influence over the nomination. For 25 years, there has been debate and study about how the outcome in Iowa affects New Hampshire voters. This time around, because of the decision by the state's secretary of state, Bill Gardner, to set the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8, voters would just have five days to examine the candidates and make their decision.

One of the bedrock political assumptions of the year - and certainly one that has informed Mrs. Clinton's campaign - is that winning Iowa and New Hampshire would set the table for sweeping the 20 or so states that vote or hold caucuses on Feb. 5, the day when many Democrats believe that their contest would effectively be decided. But if Iowans ended up being equally divided among what many party leaders view as an unusually strong cast of candidates, who is to say that voters in the Feb. 5 states will not be as well?

None of this is meant to suggest that an outcome like this would mean that what has taken place here over the past year was insignificant. Quite the contrary. Watching these candidates, both Democrats and Republicans, deliver their final speeches, take the last round of questions from Iowans and shake hands of supporters, it seemed hard to dispute that most of these candidates are much better at this than they were a year ago.

Mr. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, an old Iowa caucus hand who has moved here to help out in the final days, said as much in explaining why he would be comfortable with even an inconclusive outcome. "The experience here in Iowa has been tremendous for the entire campaign," he said.

By Adam Nagourney, The New York Times, December 31, 2007

Iowa Falls, Ia. - Iowans have noticied that Democrat Hillary Clinton is not taking public questions from audiences during her final-push campaign rallies. After her 40-minute monologue ended shortly before 10 p.m. Sunday, Clinton immediately began to sign autographs, pose for photographs and listen to caucusgoers' concerns one on one.

Iowa Falls resident Alene Rickels, 51, when asked her thoughts about the event, said: "Her speech was really good, but it would've been interesting to see how she reacted to questions. "I really thought she would take questions," said Rickels, a middle school teacher. "It's late in the day, so I'm assuming that that's the reason. I don't know what she did the rest of the day."

Clinton took no questions from audiences at any of her stops earlier Sunday, in Vinton, Traer and Cedar Falls.

That message control raised eyebrows for other caucusgoers.

Lee Weber, 53, of Mason City caught Democrat Joe Biden at lunchtime Sunday, Democrat Christopher Dodd after supper then hopped in the car to see Clinton in Iowa Falls.

"Biden wins today," said Weber, who teaches at a community college. "Excellent presentation. He took questions. And I've been impressed with his message for a long time."

Biden opens himself up to questions from the audience every single event. Lately, he's been shortening his stump speeches considerably to allow time for more questions from the audience.

As for the press, Biden makes himself available at any event where several cameras are present and reporters are interested. Because he typically attracts few reporters, anyone who wants a few minutes with him afterward can generally arrange it with his staff.

Since returning to Iowa after a short Christmas holiday, Clinton has opened herself up to public questions just one time - at an event Friday in Story City. She has made herself available to questions from the pool of reporters covering her once, after a rally in Eldridge Saturday.

Democrat Barack Obama takes questions from the audience at almost every event. He rarely does press availabilities and will generally decline to answer reporters' questions if they approach him while he is shaking hands. His staff, also, guards him quite closely to prevent media from asking him questions.

In contrast, Democrat John Edwards takes several questions at every event, and tells people that if he didn't get to them, they should either e-mail their questions to his web site or write them down and hand them to one of his aides, and he or someone from the campaign will answer the question before the caucuses.

"It's my responsibility to answer your questions," he tells audiences. He makes himself available to reporters two or three per day and routinely has reporters take turns interviewing him on his bus between stops.

This has been Edwards' habit since the beginning of the campaign, when Edwards was ahead.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney did "Ask Mitt Anything" events before Christmas in which he took questions. Lately though, he shakes hands but takes no audience questions. In the past he's done one press availability a day, but recently it's become spotty.





By Jennifer Jacobs, Des Moines Register, December 31, 2007

Republicans and Democrats Have Three Days Until the Nation's First Caucus

Though presidential hopefuls have been campaigning for months, the race to the 2008 presidential election officially begins with the Iowa caucuses, which are only three days away.

While many potential ballot casters are preparing to usher in the new year, the candidates are putting up their last-ditch efforts to woo Hawkeye State residents.

"I think every candidate who wants to be president is desperately doing what ever they can to get that final margin in a race that can be decided by 200 votes," said ABC News political contributor Matthew Dowd on "Good Morning America" today.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has former first lady Hillary Clinton leading her Democratic rivals with 29 percent. But she can hardly be considered a sure thing, as Sen. Barack Obama and John Edwards have 26 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

The tight race has Obama and Edwards fighting to retain and gain some of the undecided voters in Iowa, and Obama argues this is the time to hope.

"I think Barack Obama needs to win Iowa. He has to show Hillary is vulnerable," Dowd said.

Clinton, who visited nine towns across the state during the weekend, repeated the same message at each stop: It takes experience to make a change, and she's the candidate who can win.

"A lot of people are deciding what is the most important issue of all; who can be the president; who is ready on day one. I have taken the incoming fire for about 26 years, and much to their dismay I'm still standing," Clinton told supporters.

Dowd said former President Clinton has given the New York senator a boost on the campaign trail.

"I think her husband being president has provided her a great asset to a degree," he said. "In the end, people are going to vote on whether Hillary Clinton can be president or not."

Other Democratic candidates, like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, have received much less press during the lead-up to the caucuses. "You know, if you listen to national media, the pundits in New York, there are only two or three candidates, but we are going to show them. We are going to shock the world," Richardson said.

Richardson had his biggest rally ever during the weekend at a Des Moines restaurant, while Sen. Joe Biden discussed murmurs that he would be a good secretary of state, asking Iowans if they were ready to vote for someone who wanted more than that.

In Edwards' final appeal to voters, he pressed the issue of fighting special interests, saying the Democratic nominee should have guts and determination.

The Republicans

While the top three Democrats remain within striking distance of one another, the Republicans find two former governors as the front-runners in Iowa. Polls show Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney running neck-in-neck in Iowa, as Romney's last-minute attack ads have seemed to chip away at Huckabee's lead.

"I think at this point, Mike Huckabee has to win," Dowd said. Dowd added the attacks have hurt Huckabee in part because until a few weeks ago, voters knew very little about him.

The former Arkansas governor hasn't been content to merely sit back in response to the negative advertisements. Huckabee has released a new ad.

"If you love negative campaigning you've got to be loving the last few days of this election," Huckabee says in the ad. "But if you love our country, you've got to be thinking enough is enough."

Huckabee has pushed honesty as part of his closing arguments and suggested Romney lacks the quality.

"He will likely not start being honest on the job, if he had to be dishonest to get there," Huckabee said.

Despite his attack ads, Romney's closing message to potential caucus goers was one of optimism.

"I'm convinced that what makes us the strongest nation on Earth is the heart and values of the American people," he said.

And while the men duke it out, Fred Thompson has set his expectations high, saying he needs to come in second to stay in the race. The former Tennessee actor has offered consistent common sense conservatism as his final pitch.

Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain are expected to make no closing arguments at all. The men have set their sights on other states, whose primaries come later in the year. They'll be happy with whatever they can get in Iowa.

ABC News, December 31, 2007

Candidates Hit Different Notes on the Same Theme in Iowa

The Democratic presidential campaign in Iowa has been transformed into a freewheeling contest over the meaning of a single word: change.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards wants to usher in change in drastic fashion, with a populist wave he wants to use to swamp special interests. To New York Sen. Hillary Clinton - and to several second-tier Democrats who are fighting to make their voices heard - change is a more gradual process, requiring deep experience and expertise to massage a complicated process.

And to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, change is a deeply rooted campaign theme: It starts with his biography, and extends through his broad promise to remake the nation's politics.

Obama Touts 'American People' as Change Agents

"Ultimately it is the American people who are the real change agents in this country," Obama said Sunday in Newton, with a banner behind him reading "Change We Believe In," and a huge sign off to his right stating "Jasper County Stands for Change."

"We can't afford a politics that spends all its time tearing opponents down instead of lifting the country up," Obama said. "The real gamble in this election is having the same old folks doing the same old thing over and over and over again and somehow expecting a different result."

The Democrats' intense focus on change taps into deep-seated anger among party activists at the Bush administration. All of the Democrats regularly rail against President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, even though Bush and Cheney have appeared on their last ballot.

Candidates Showcase Personal Histories

In appealing to the desire for change, the candidates are using different elements of their personal histories to present themselves as the person who is best prepared to deliver.

Edwards cites his working-class background and refusal to accept money from political action committees to craft a populist appeal that angrily denounces special interests. His central claim: that it's impossible to negotiate with "the big corporations and powerful interests who control Washington."

"I want to be absolutely clear that the corporate greed that is destroying the middle class of this country and stealing your children's future, it is stealing the future of Democrats' children, Independents' children, Republicans' children," Edwards said at a campaign stop Sunday in Boone, Iowa. "This is a message and a cause we can unite America around."

Clinton talks about her experience in the Senate and as first lady in arguing that she could handle the job as president immediately upon taking office. Her closing argument is more subdued than the fiery appeals being offered by Obama and Edwards.

"It is time to pick a president; the stakes are high, the job is hard," she said Sunday in Vinton, Iowa. "We know there are challenges we can't foresee. We know we have to pick a president who is ready to lead on day one."

Selling an Alternative to Partisan Politics

Meanwhile, the other Democrats who are struggling to register in Iowa - Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd, and Gov. Bill Richardson - are portraying themselves as alternatives to the partisanship that has long defined presidential politics.

"John Edwards and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama - all really good people, but everyone knows that that's going to spark a really spirited, spirited fight that's not likely to change in tone from the last election," Biden said Sunday on CNN. "Whereas if I were nominated as the Democrat, or Chris Dodd for that matter dominated as the Democrat, you would see the boiling point lower a great deal. And we both have long records of cooperating extensively with Republicans, without yielding one bit on our principles."

Negative Campaigning and the Caucuses

Candidates in Iowa are often careful not to engage in overtly negative attacks on their opponents. Caucus-goers are known to bristle at negative campaigning, and the Byzantine rules of the Iowa caucuses make second choices important, meaning no candidate wants to alienate another candidate's supporters.

"What you enter that night [with] in that caucus room is not going to be your final tally," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. "There's a remarkable amount of fluidity in the race right now."

Questioning Opponents in a Fluid Race

But the Democrats are finding ways to question their opponents' ability to bring about change. Obama, who has made change central to his argument from the start, is calling into question the other candidates' backgrounds in building himself up as the candidate of change.

"I think it's good that Democrats and Republicans and independents recognize that it's time for change. I think the question you ought to ask yourself is, who can best deliver such change? Who is best equipped to make change happen?" Obama said in Newton on Sunday.

"We don't need somebody to play the game better in Washington, we need to put a new game plan in Washington," he said.

By Rick Klein, ABC News, December 31, 2007

US presidential hopefuls are campaigning hard ahead of a tight Iowa caucus, the first big test in the battle for their party's nomination.

Most of the top Republican and Democrat candidates have been crisscrossing Iowa for days, pushing their message home.

The caucuses - simultaneous meetings held at 1,784 locations across the state - will be held on 3 January.

Thousands of political activists have been dispatched by both parties to attend political meetings in the state.

On the Democratic front, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll released at the weekend gives Hillary Clinton a slight lead in Iowa, with Barak Obama and John Edwards fighting for second place.

Mrs Clinton was scheduled to spend New Year's Eve at a late-night rally with her husband Bill in Iowa's capital Des Moines.

Mr Obama was to cross the state attending a total of five rallies on Monday.

Momentum

Mr Edwards, who polls show has gained momentum in Iowa, was sending out hundreds of volunteers on a state-wide canvass.

The same Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll also suggested a tight Republican contest between former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

"It's about as close as you can get at the top in both races," pollster John Zogby said. "But it's still very uncertain."

Republican John McCain solidified his hold on third place, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has maintained a low-key presence in Iowa, some way behind.

A McClatchy-MSNBC poll, also released over the weekend, gave Mr Edwards a single percentage point lead in Iowa over Mrs Clinton, while Mr Romney was just ahead of Mr Huckabee.

On Sunday, Mrs Clinton said that even third place in Iowa would not spell disaster heading into the New Hampshire primary on 8 January.

"I believe that this campaign will be bunched up, I think the history out of Iowa shows that a lot of people live to fight another day," Mrs Clinton told ABC News.

Other leading candidates took to the airwaves on Sunday, with Mr Huckabee using the opportunity to lash out at his nearest rival.

He accused Mr Romney of trying to mislead voters with adverts targeting his record on taxes, illegal immigration and foreign policy views.

Experience

"Mitt Romney is running a very desperate and, frankly, a dishonest campaign," Mr Huckabee said on NBC. He also questioned whether Mr Romney could be trusted with the presidency.

For their part, Mr Romney's team accused Mr Huckabee of "testiness and irritability".

In his closing message on the NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday morning Mr Obama acknowledged that the criticism about his lack of experience in Washington might be taking a toll.

"That may have some effect, but ultimately I'm putting my faith in the people of Iowa and the people of America that they want something better," he said.

Mrs Clinton, on the other hand, played on her experience, telling This Week that she had once been "intimately involved in so much that went on in the White House, here at home and around the world".

Candidates who do well in Iowa and New Hampshire can gain momentum and media attention, establishing themselves as front-runners.

BBC News, December 31, 2007

WASHINGTON -- Two multimillionaires in the presidential race - two ways to spend their money. Republican Mitt Romney has pumped more than $17 million of his own into his race; Democrat John Edwards, by law, can tap his fortune for no more than $50,000.

What a difference public financing makes.

Romney has chosen to bypass the taxpayer-financed presidential campaign fund, a move that lets him use his wealth without limitation. If he has put more of his money in during the past three months, his campaign isn't saying. The public won't find out until Jan. 31, when Romney must submit campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission.

Edwards has been certified to get $8.8 million in public funds, and he plans to collect. The step not only restricts his spending, it also prohibits him from dipping into his personal wealth. Meanwhile, his campaign is getting more than $2 million in help from labor-backed independent groups.

Presidential candidates and their allies are spending money like never before, and some candidates head into the New Year with big decisions ahead - to lend, to borrow, to accept millions in public matching funds.

Romney and Edwards are two bookends in the presidential election financing system. Their distinct approaches are both convenient and risky and they exemplify the evolution of a public financing system that is now seen as a resource of last resort.

Republican John McCain illustrates the dilemma. He has been certified to receive $5.8 million in matching funds but is keeping his options open. He has a $3 million line of credit, secured with future fundraising and the value of his mailing list. McCain can wait to see how he performs in the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8 before deciding whether he wants to collect the public funds or capture a surge of new donor money.

"Candidates are adopting whatever approach can get them the greatest amount of money," said Anthony Corrado, an expert on political money at Colby College in Maine. "Romney is willing to tap into his personal fortune to remain competitive. Candidates like Edwards or McCain who don't have resources to match the leading candidates can tap public money."

Romney, a former venture capitalist, and his wife Ann have assets worth between $190 million and $250 million. Aides have said money will not be a problem for the Romney campaign. As of the end of September, he had lent his campaign $17.4 million and raised $44.8 million from donors. Romney has been spending heavily on advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire, lately averaging $1.5 million a week or more. Like other candidates, Romney has been focused on winning votes in the early contest states and has cut back from the frenetic fundraising pace all the candidates kept during the first nine months of the year. But aides would not reveal whether he had tapped his fortune for more money during the last quarter of the year. By the time the campaign is required to make that information public, several key contests will have already occurred. "We will have the resources to keep building our organization through these early contests and beyond," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said.

Edwards had raised $30 million by the end of September, significantly trailing rivals Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. At that point, the campaign decided to seek public funds.

Under the presidential financing system, candidates get matching funds for every donor's contribution of up $250. If they accept the money, they must abide by spending limits in each primary and caucus state as well as an overall cap on primary spending. Those restrictions have prompted most of the leading candidates to decide to forgo the public money.

Edwards has so far spent more than $5 million on advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's also getting help from independent, mostly labor-financed groups that have drawn criticism from watchdog groups and from Obama. The groups, called "527" organizations for the section of the IRS code that authorizes them, have been running ads supporting Edwards' policies in Iowa during the closing days of the campaign there.

Edwards, who made his fortune as a trial lawyer with his wealth somewhere between $12.8 million and $60 million, has refused donations from political action committees and lobbyists and has cast himself as the candidate less connected to Washington special interests. But Obama and other critics say the 527 groups are simply special interests helping him in another guise. Though labor groups have supplied much of the financing, one of the donors is a 97-year-old heiress to the Mellon family fortune.

Edwards has offered a finely honed response, saying he opposes the 527 organizations, but is proud of having the support of unions. "They're not running any negative, no attack ads. This is just positive advertising," he said of the groups Sunday on CBS. "But that aside, I think these 527s need to be banned. I didn't want them running advertising, and I've continued to say that every time I've been asked. But I can't stop these people. I don't have control over them."

McCain, though certified to receive his share of matching public money, doesn't have to accept it and can technically wait until March, when the money would officially become available, to decide. To do that, however, he has to abide by the spending limits now.

That opens some options and closes others. McCain can use his existing funds, including the line of credit he obtained, to cover campaign costs through the New Hampshire primary. If he wins there, he would likely see a significant influx of new campaign money, forcing a reconsideration of whether he needs the public matching funds.

"We've stayed under the caps, so that if necessary, that we can" collect the public money, he said Sunday on ABC. "We bought all the media that's necessary and all we can in New Hampshire."

McCain can't use the matching funds as collateral for his loans unless he decides to take it. His campaign lawyer, Trevor Potter, said the line of credit is not secured by the matching funds, but by the campaign's fundraising mail list and the promise of future fundraising. Potter, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, said banks typically look at a candidate's fundraising history and require pledges from candidates that they will tap donors on that list to repay the loan, if necessary.

If McCain gets knocked out of the presidential contest, he would be allowed to shift his debt to his Senate election account. That would permit him to tap donors anew while occupying senior positions on influential Senate committees. His only restriction would be that he could not tell donors that the money was meant to retire his debt.

"It's easier to take the higher risk financial strategies when you're a sitting member of the Senate," Corrado said. "You still have fundraising wherewithal."

As they candidates fight for votes and against each other, financial decisions will ultimately determine how far they can go without some victories.

"For Romney the real trick at this point is if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, then he has to decide, 'OK, I will write a big check and see this through,'" Corrado said. "If McCain doesn't win New Hampshire, do they take the public money to try to see it through. Two big decisions."




CBS News, December 31, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - For presidential candidates in Iowa, it's not just about winning or losing. It's how you play the expectations game.

The big winner of Iowa's kick-off presidential nominating contest on Thursday may not come in first, and the big loser could be a candidate who finishes ahead of most of the field.

The goal is beating expectations -- and every four years the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire elevate or doom candidates who confound predictions and pull a surprise.

"It's not like a football game where you look at the scoreboard and see who won," said Dennis Goldford, a political analyst at Drake University in Des Moines. "Politics is like judging ice skating -- it's interpretive."

Iowa has produced some memorable examples of the expectations game at work. In 1976, Democrat Jimmy Carter was a largely unknown governor who finished second to "undecided," but it earned him enough good publicity to launch a run that put him in the White House.

In 1984, former Vice President Walter Mondale trounced Democrat Gary Hart in Iowa, but Hart's second-place finish drew enough attention to propel him to a New Hampshire win and put a scare into Mondale, the ultimate nominee.

Aware of the risks, politicians work hard to keep expectations low. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Iowa polls for months, frequently emphasizes what a difficult challenge she faces in the state.

"When I started here, I was in single digits. I mean, nobody expected me to be doing as well as I'm doing in Iowa," Clinton, one of the best-known politicians in the United States, said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.

Clinton is in a three-way fight with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. One of them has to finish third -- a spot that will be hard to spin in a positive light.

TWO TICKETS OUT OF IOWA?

"The old saying is there are three tickets out of Iowa, but this time there might be only two," said Gordon Fischer, a former Democratic state party chairman and an Obama supporter. "Barring a really, really close finish, third place is going to be very damaging."

Edwards could have the toughest expectations in Iowa, considered a make-or-break state for him after he finished a strong second during his failed 2004 campaign and essentially kept on campaigning after the November 2004 election.

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, entered Iowa with perhaps the most to lose. He led polls in the state almost all year until former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee recently shot past him.

Romney's recent struggles have reduced expectations of an easy victory, making an eventual win now seem more impressive.

"Huckabee has done Romney a favor by giving him a serious challenge," Goldford said.

Even the battle for lower spots could offer solace for some lucky loser. A strong fourth-place finish by a second-tier Democrat like Biden, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson or Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd could keep them going.

Among Republicans, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani have largely bypassed Iowa to focus on later states, and third place could give them a boost there.

But McCain faces a must-win in New Hampshire, where he has put all his focus and which votes just five days after Iowa. He won the state during his failed 2000 presidential bid.

"Sometimes you can come in not first and still, quote, 'win,' because of the expectations game," McCain said on Sunday on NBC. "But we have to do very well here in New Hampshire."

By John Whitesides, Reuters, December 31, 2007

VINTON, Iowa - Meet John Edwards, Hillary Clinton's baby-faced tormenter - and the guy who just might be her last, best hope to stop Barack Obama in the early primary states.

Edwards, who is enjoying a late surge in the New Hampshire and Iowa polls, has staked his candidacy on a strong showing in the Hawkeye State, where his grassroots support is the envy of the Democratic field. But he's also gaining ground in the Granite State - New Hampshire - where he's moved from the low teens in early December polling into the low 20s this week.

Edwards has hammered Clinton on campaign finance and for her refusal to recant her Iraq war vote, but his rise, perversely, helps Clinton by dividing the anti-Clinton vote among two candidates.

"Clinton needs a viable John Edwards - her worst-case scenario is that Obama takes first place and Edwards comes in third here," said University of Iowa pollster David Redlawski. "If Edwards falls into irrelevance, that really hurts her because he's splitting the vote against her."

Clinton's advisers worry what will happen if Edwards were to falter in Iowa, according to sources in the campaign. His collapse could deliver his supporters, overwhelmingly anti-Clinton, to Obama in numbers great enough to push deadlocked New Hampshire and South Carolina into the Illinois senator's column.

The former North Carolina senator is locked in a three-way tie with his two rivals and a Mason-Dixon poll here released yesterday has Edwards leading with 24 percent, with Clinton and Obama at 23 and 22 percent, respectively.

"We're surging at exactly the time we need to be surging," says Edwards' top adviser, Joe Trippi, who said his candidate's gains have largely been drawn from Obama.

Redlawski says recent polls show Edwards gaining an edge over Obama among Iowa's crucial "second-choice" voters - Democrats who switch candidates after the first round of balloting in the caucuses.

Not surprisingly, Edwards and Obama are rediscovering their mutual animosity after a year of ganging up on Clinton. Obama has even begun attacking Edwards as unelectable, comparing him to his 2004 running mate, John Kerry.

"Part of the problem that John would have in the general election is that the issues that he's talking about now are not the issues or the things that he said four years ago, which always causes us problems in general elections," Obama told supporters in Keokuk on Saturday.

For weeks, the Clinton campaign has been quietly downplaying its own chances of winning, while pushing the idea that Edwards would win the caucuses.

But her pump-up-Edwards strategy goes only so far.

"If she finishes third, how can she recover?" asks Redlawski.

And that strategy can't compensate for her high negative ratings or her inability to encourage defections from Edwards and Obama.

"The people who love her aren't going to leave her, but she's also not able to move beyond her base of support," said Rachel Caufield, a politics professor at Drake University in Des Moines. "Hillary's frozen in concrete."

Edwards’ surge may pull votes from Obama

Third-place finish would hurt Clinton

Three front-runners in virtual three-way tie here and here and here.

By Glenn Thrush, Newsday, December 31, 2007

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a slim lead in Iowa over Barack Obama and a rising John Edwards, who are tied for second place three days before the state opens the presidential nominating race, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

In the tight Republican contest in Iowa, Mike Huckabee narrowly leads Mitt Romney, who slipped by one point to trail 29 percent to 27 percent. John McCain gained two points but remained a distant third at 13 percent.

About 6 percent of likely caucus-goers in each party remain undecided of their choice in Thursday's contest, the first big test in the state-by-state battle to choose Republican and Democratic candidates in November's presidential election.

"It's about as close as you can get at the top in both races," pollster John Zogby said. "But it's still very uncertain."

The poll of 899 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 902 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for each party.

Most of the top candidates in both parties have been crisscrossing Iowa for days in a late hunt for support that could give them an edge and momentum for later contests.

The poll showed Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, leading Edwards and Illinois Sen. Obama by four points, 30 percent to 26 percent. Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, gained two points overnight to pull even with Obama.

Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson were at 5 percent. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich were at 1 percent.

GOOD DAY FOR EDWARDS

"Edwards had a good day by virtue especially of increasing support among independent voters," Zogby said. Edwards led narrowly among independents over Clinton and Obama.

The poll found Clinton's supporters remained the most dedicated with 73 percent saying their support was "very" strong, compared to 66 percent for Edwards and 63 percent for Obama.

Under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, candidates must receive support from 15 percent of the participants in each precinct to be viable. If not, their supporters can switch to other candidates.

Edwards was the most popular second choice with 28 percent, while Obama had 25 percent and Clinton 14 percent.

In the Republican race, Huckabee held on to his slim two-point lead despite an Iowa ad campaign from Romney attacking Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas.

McCain solidified his hold on third with his two-point gain to 13 percent. Three Republicans battled for fourth, with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 8 percent and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 7 percent.

A third-place finish for McCain, an Arizona senator who has largely bypassed Iowa to concentrate on the next contest in New Hampshire, would give him a small measure of momentum going into that state's January 8 primary.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, has been running hard in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His top rivals in each state have concentrated on just one -- Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire.

"The only real movement for Republicans was with McCain," Zogby said. "If he continues to climb it could hurt Romney because he is pulling support from independents, moderates and others who are essential to Romney's support."

The rolling tracking poll will continue each day through the Iowa caucus on Thursday. In a rolling poll, the most recent day's results are added while the oldest day's results are dropped in order to track changing momentum.

By John Whitesides, Reuters, December 31, 2007

Americans will cast their first votes this week in the 2008 battle for the White House.

The results in the state of Iowa could have a significant effect on the neck-and-neck contests for both Republican and Democratic nominations.

In the Democratic fight, Senator Hillary Clinton has a four-point lead - described as "statistically insignificant" by pollsters - over Barack Obama, with Senator John Edwards just three points further behind.

On the Republican side, there is a "battle of the Bible-bashers" between Mike Huckabee, the guitarplaying Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, who is a single point ahead of Mitt Romney, the Mormon former governor of Massachusetts.

Thursday's Iowa caucuses - votes among the party faithful that are similar to the primaries held by most other states - have been the first major test on the path to presidential nomination since 1972.

A win there can give candidates vital momentum for later state votes.

The Democrat contest centres on the candidate who would be America's first woman president and the man who would be the first black in the White House.

Mrs Clinton leads Mr Obama among women and older voters, who are the most likely to turn out.

Mr Obama has a big lead among younger voters, but they are considered less reliable.

The wild card for Mrs Clinton is her ever-popular husband, former President Bill Clinton, who has been campaigning for her.

She said this week: "He will not have a formal, official role, but just as presidents rely on wives, husbands, fathers, friends of long years, he will be my close confidant and adviser as I was with him."

The Republican race has already taken a sour turn, with Mr Huckabee slamming TV "attack ads" from the Romney camp criticising him for being weak on immigration and crime, foreign policy and taxation.

Mr Huckabee accused Romney of running "a very desperate and, frankly, distorted" campaign against himself and another candidate, John McCain.

He told a TV chat show: "If I believed half the stuff Mitt's saying about me, I wouldn't vote for myself."

McCain, asked if Romney was a "phoney," declined to use the exact word but said: "I think he's a person who changed his positions on many issues."

Romney is fighting hard in both Iowa and New Hampshire, where there is a primary next week.

He believes victories in both would vault him to the nomination, but his campaign team are worried that he is widely seen as too calculating.

By Barry Wigmore, Daily Mail, December 30, 2007

CLINTON, Iowa - On the final weekend before Iowa's presidential caucuses, the Democratic contenders tangled over electability Saturday as the leading Republican candidates delivered fresh attacks on their rivals, hoping to nudge undecided voters to reach a decision in an extraordinarily volatile campaign.

"Who is tested and ready to be the winning candidate for the Democratic Party?" said Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, arguing her ability to fend off Republicans. "They've been after me for 16 years. And much to their dismay, I'm still here."

Senator Barack Obama of Illinois took the rare step of mentioning his leading rivals by name. He pointedly told voters he believed that Mrs. Clinton would "start off with half the country not wanting to vote for her."

Asked about Mr. Obama's comments, Mrs. Clinton named Democrats supporting her, including Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio, who traveled with her Saturday. "They are not on a political suicide mission," she said.

But it was the new rhetoric on the Republican side of the ticket that drew the fiercest spark, as former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas hurled a barrage of attacks at the credibility of his chief rival here, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts.

"If a person is dishonest in his approach to get the job, do you believe he will be honest in telling you the truth when he does get the job?" Mr. Huckabee asked voters in Osceola, Iowa.

Mr. Huckabee said he was escalating his criticism in part because of Mr. Romney's recent disparagements of a third Republican rival, Senator John McCain of Arizona, whom Mr. Huckabee called "an American hero."

"It is enough to attack me," Mr. Huckabee said. "But now to attack John McCain, it is like Mitt doesn't have anything to stand on except to stand against. And I am saying enough is enough."

Three Republican candidates - Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain - are fighting for primacy here and in the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Jan. 8, five days after the Iowa caucuses on Thursday. (On Saturday, The Concord Monitor in New Hampshire announced that it was endorsing Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain.) For his part, Mr. Romney did not mention Mr. Huckabee on the second day of a bus tour across the state.

In their closing tours of rural eastern Iowa counties, Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina largely mimicked one another's travel patterns, each hoping to have the final word with undecided voters.

Locked in a competitive three-way fight, their messages also showed similarities. Mr. Edwards vowed Saturday to ban former lobbyists from being employed in the White House; Mr. Obama announced a similar proposal earlier.

Still, by contrast, the Democratic candidates on Saturday engaged in far more polite campaigning, hoping to end a bruising yearlong contest on a positive note.

While the Republican campaign here has often appeared sleepy, with several candidates focusing their efforts elsewhere, several candidates began broadcasting their final commercials, and new criticism emerged from Mr. Huckabee, who had pledged to maintain a positive tone in the campaign.

Mr. Huckabee accused Mr. Romney of fabricating elements of his personal history, alluding to an exaggeration that Mr. Romney made about his past as a hunter. "You are not going to hear me making up stuff about my biography," Mr. Huckabee said. "I don't go around saying I was a lifelong golfer because I once rode in a golf cart when I was 8 years old."

"You aren't going to hear me talk about how I once was a person who was on the other side of the issue when it came to the Reagan-Bush legacy and didn't believe in it, was an independent, but now I love Ronald Reagan," Mr. Huckabee continued, alluding to Mr. Romney's declaration during the 1994 Senate race in Massachusetts that he was not a Reagan Republican. "I voted for Ronald Reagan when Reagan first ran for office."

In response, Kevin Madden, a spokesman for Mr. Romney, said in a statement that his campaign had been calling attention to "substantive and relevant differences that Governor Romney has with Mike Huckabee on big issues," including taxes and spending policies.

After enduring weeks of criticism from Mr. Romney for granting clemency to a prisoner who committed new crimes after his release, Mr. Huckabee accused him of refusing worthy pardons for political expediency. Mr. Huckabee told the story of a decorated Iraq war veteran, Anthony Circosta, who could not get a job as a police officer because of a blot on his record for harmlessly shooting another boy with a BB gun at age 13.

"He was in Mitt Romney's state," Mr. Huckabee said, "and Mitt Romney twice said no because Mitt Romney wants to brag that he never ever gave a pardon. I wouldn't be bragging about not giving a decorated soldier a chance to become a police officer."

By Jeff Zeleny and David D. Kirkpatrick, The New York Times, December 30, 2007

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has picked up the backing of Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington, the 10th Senate endorsement Clinton has received in her presidential bid.

The campaign was set to announce Cantwell's endorsement Monday.

"Hillary is ready to address our energy challenges on day one with a bold, comprehensive plan to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and move America toward a renewable energy future," Cantwell said in a statement.

In the closing days before Iowa's caucuses Thursday, Clinton has been addressing questions about her electability in the general election - in part by touting endorsements from leading elected officials.

Campaigning with Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland on Saturday, Clinton said he and other high-profile backers aren't on a "political suicide mission" and are supporting her because they believe she can win Republican-leaning states.

The caucuses are anything but a Norman Rockwell exercise in small-town democracy.

The trouble with the Iowa caucuses isn't that there's anything wrong with Iowans. It's the bizarre rules of the process. Caucuses are touted as authentic neighborhood meetings where voters gather in their precincts and make democracy come alive. In truth, they are anything but.

Caucuses occur only at a fixed time at night, so that many people working odd hours can't participate. They can easily exceed two hours. There are no absentee ballots, which means the process disfranchises the sick, shut-ins and people who are out of town on the day of the caucus. The Democratic caucuses require participants to stand in a corner with other supporters of their candidate. That eliminates the secret ballot.

There are reasons for all this. The caucuses are run by the state parties, and unlike primary or general elections aren't regulated by the government. They were designed as an insiders' game to attract party activists, donors and political junkies and give them a disproportionate influence in the process. In other words, they are designed not to be overly democratic. Primaries aren't perfect. but at least they make it fairly easy for everyone to vote, since polls are open all day and it takes only a few minutes to cast a ballot.

Little wonder that voter turnout for the Iowa caucuses is extremely low--in recent years about 6% of registered voters. Many potential voters will proclaim their civic virtue to pollsters and others and say they will show up at the caucus--and then find something else to do Thursday night.

All of which means that the endless polls on the Iowa caucuses are highly suspect. Iowans have been bombarded by well over a million political phone calls in recent days. They range from "robo calls" from interest groups touting one candidate or another to breathless teenage volunteers inviting the voter to a local coffee with some obscure relative of a candidate.

Smart voters tune all this out and screen their calls, making it difficult for pollsters to reach them. Even when they do answer the phone, many people refuse to participate in surveys. Pollsters can't call people who only have cell phones. So you get implausible results like last Friday's Los Angeles Times survey that found Barack Obama in third place on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee running away with the GOP contest. The Times's pollsters surveyed just 174 likely Republican voters and 389 Democratic one, with a whopping margin of error of plus or minus seven percentage points among Republicans and five points among Democrats.

Iowa voters' allegiances are notoriously volatile. A new Associated Press poll of a large sample of voters estimates that 40% of GOP voters had changed candidate allegiances since November. In 2004, polls a few days before the caucuses suggested suggested Howard Dean would be a shoo-in. He finished a distant third, behind John Kerry and John Edwards.

Then there are the problems of reporting the results on election night. At least the Republican caucus is a one-man, one-vote affair where people write their preferred candidate's name on a slip of paper, and whoever gets the most votes wins.

Democrats have a mind-numbingly complex system in which participants divide up into "candidate preference groups" by standing up. No paper ballots are used. Those candidates who don't get support from 15% or more of those attending a local caucus are deemed not to be "viable," and their supporters have to realign with some other candidate.

"That's when it gets kind of crazy," says Mark Daley, a former spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party. "There will be people screaming back and forth . . . and senior citizens with calculators trying to do the math." Only after all this are county convention delegates allocated among the candidates and the results phoned in to the state Democratic Party. Delegates aren't actually allocated until the Democratic county conventions in March.

Not all local caucuses are equal. The "entrance" polls of voter preferences that you will see reported Thursday night are likely to be from urban areas, which may shortchange candidates like John Edwards, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson, who have campaigned more heavily in rural areas. "It's entirely possible that John Edwards could come in a stunning second when all the votes are in, but the country will have gone to bed thinking he only took third place," says Howard Fineman of Newsweek.

Rural Iowa matters for another reason in the Democratic contest. In order to encourage candidates to campaign in farming areas, state Democrats have tilted the delegate allocation so that rural areas are disproportionately represented in the final results. This sometimes can lead to bizarre results. As Roger Simon of Politico.com notes, "the turnout in some precincts is so small that a single family--let's say four people--can determine the winner. In other precincts, only one person will show up and win for his candidate by being the only person in the room." In small-turnout caucus meetings, ties are resolved by a coin toss or drawing lots. In 2004, four precincts saw literally no one show up to vote in the Democratic caucus.

There are other anomalies on the Democratic side. Some precincts use a different threshold level than 15% for the viability of a candidate. "Residency" rules are incredibly elastic. No one checks identification, and anyone who claims to live in the precinct is allowed to vote. In other words, very little prevents the unscrupulous (such as out-of-state campaign workers who have "lived" in Iowa for a few weeks) from having a role in the process. Each caucus also elects a "permanent chair," who can have an outsize role in the process. Ned Chiodo, who has been appointed temporary chair of his local caucus by the state Democratic Party, told Politico.com that a permanent chair "controls the flow of the meeting. You have influence. You may be able to pick up a vote or two here and there for your candidate."

All of these arcane rules, combined with the fixed time and place voters mush show up in order to influence the result, make the Iowa caucus a test of organization as much as actual voter support. "The candidate that provides the most babysitters or literally drives older people to the polls the most can have a real edge," Tom Tauke, a Republican former congressman, once told me.

Thus the Iowa caucuses are far from a Normal Rockwell exercise in small-town democracy. They may not be as bad as the "smoke-filled rooms" of yore, but give me a simple primary election any day. I can't wait for New Hampshire.





By John Fund, The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2007

VINTON, Iowa - It's one thing for Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign to turn down interview requests for the candidate's daughter, Chelsea. But can't a 9-year-old reporter catch a break?

Sydney Rieckhoff, a Cedar Rapids fourth grader and "kid reporter" for Scholastic News, has posed questions to seven Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls as they've campaigned across Iowa this year. But when she approached the 27-year-old Chelsea after a campaign event Sunday, she got a different response.

"Do you think your dad would be a good 'first man' in the White House?" Sydney asked, but Chelsea brushed her question aside.

"I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately. Even though I think you're cute," Chelsea told the pint-sized journalist.

Such is the paradox of Chelsea as she campaigns across Iowa in the closing days before the state's caucuses Jan. 3.

Tall and attractive, Chelsea cuts an impressive figure on the campaign trail; she plunges enthusiastically into the crowd after her mother's speeches, shaking hands and posing for pictures while asking, "Are you going to caucus for my mom?"

But onstage, Chelsea never speaks; she stands next to her mother and applauds but utters not a single sentence and doesn't even say hello. And reporters covering the campaign have been put on notice that Chelsea is not available to speak to them. An aide follows the former first daughter as she works the crowd, shushing reporters who approach her and try to ask any questions.

Famously protective of their daughter's privacy, Bill and Hillary Clinton have taken pains to shield Chelsea from the harsh glare and rough edges of presidential politics. She stayed largely absent from her mother's campaign until December, when she made her first visit to Iowa.

For her part, Sydney looked a bit crestfallen after Chelsea turned her away. But luckily for Hillary Clinton, Sydney's mother has made up her mind to caucus for the former first lady.

"I like her position on family values and health care. And I think it's time we have a female president," Robyn Rieckhoff said.

By Beth Fouhy, Associated Press, December 30, 2007

DES MOINES - Senator Barack Obama is on the hunt for Iowans who have never participated in the state's presidential caucuses, including independent voters under 50 and students who will be 18 by the general election.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is searching for Iowans who have skipped the caucuses in the past and who, because of age, sex or other characteristics, seem likely to support her, starting with independent women over 65 or under 30.

John Edwards is taking a more traditional approach, working through the official list of Democrats who showed up to choose a candidate in 2004, as his campaign tries to ensure that it has the name of every likely voter who might be on his side when Iowans gather in 1,781 precinct caucuses across the state on Thursday night.

The ground war - the laborious, unglamorous process of identifying supporters and making sure they show up to make their preference known when it counts - has always been a critical part of the contest in Iowa. But the turnout effort among Democrats this time around has exploded into the most ambitious and costly in the history of this state's presidential caucus system, and it puts on display the sharply diverging strategies the candidates are pursuing as they hurtle toward the first real test of the 2008 campaign.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are trying to expand the tiny universe of caucusgoers, a fundamental shift in the way candidates have approached the Iowa caucuses. Mr. Edwards is focusing mainly on voters who have reliably voted in the past.

The developments reflect the tightness of the race - another poll Friday found Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama effectively tied - and the dynamics of an unusual contest where so few people vote: about 125,000 in the Democratic caucus of 2004. Aides to the candidates said this contest could be determined by a swing of as few as 1,000 voters.

"I've never seen anything like it," Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat who has not endorsed anyone in the race, said in an interview in his office on Friday. "The get-out-the-vote efforts are going to be the best ever."

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is also making an intense effort to turn out his supporters to stave off Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who polls suggest has made a late surge that gives him a chance of victory. Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has spent more than a year building a turnout organization that proved its effectiveness at the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames this summer and that he is now counting on to turn back a stiff challenge from Mr. Huckabee, who is relying largely on word-of-mouth and a network of volunteers, his aides said.

Many of the other Republican candidates are making only token efforts here. So most of the on-the-ground organizing is being done by the leading Democrats, and that was becoming increasingly visible as the candidates and their supporters fanned out across the state this weekend.

Mrs. Clinton's office here is filled with hundreds of new green snow shovels that were being strategically distributed on Saturday to precinct captains to clear the walks of older women who might be particularly wary of going out to the caucuses in bad weather. The campaign has printed doorknob hangers with caucus locations printed in extra-large type, also to accommodate these older first-time caucusers.

"We have had a significant challenge here in that our people are older and mostly new," said Karen Hicks, a senior campaign adviser for Mrs. Clinton. "But we've understood what our challenges were for a long time. This is not a problem you could have dealt with at the last moment."

Mrs. Clinton's campaign has contracted with a local supermarket chain to deliver platters of sandwiches for pre-caucus parties at caucus sites late Thursday afternoon. The idea is to entice people to arrive early and thus give Clinton aides time to see who has not shown up and get them to the caucus before the doors close at 7 p.m.

This city is teeming with Democratic strategists who are renowned in their party for knowing how to organize the caucuses or use sophisticated computer models and consumer data to find people who might not otherwise vote but could be open to backing particular candidates.

Mrs. Clinton is banking on Teresa Vilmain, who has worked in Iowa presidential caucuses for over 20 years, and Ms. Hicks, a former national field director for the Democratic National Committee. Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards have similarly respected operatives running their caucus operation, including David Plouffe and Steve Hildebrand for Mr. Obama. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon is running Mr. Edwards's Iowa campaign for a second time.

Mrs. Clinton, of New York, and Mr. Obama, of Illinois, are betting that they can use computer-driven research to expand the relatively small pool of caucusgoers. But all the Democrats have built large staffs, with members knocking on doors, making phone calls and keeping detailed records of which Iowans have pledged their support and which might be open to persuasion.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, in particular, are spending lavishly on door-to-door canvassers, repeated and often elaborate mailings and novelty items to help hook potential supporters. The Clinton campaign has mailed refrigerator magnets marked with the caucus date to the women they have identified as first-time caucusgoers who might determine her fate. Mr. Obama has promised baby-sitting to any parent who needs it caucus night.

"It is definitely the most highly organized caucus of all time," said Michael Whouley, a veteran Iowa caucus organizer, who is supporting Mrs. Clinton but is one of the few major Democratic strategists who have not come to Iowa for this fight.

As part of their effort to find first-time caucusgoers, the Clinton and the Obama campaigns have brought to Iowa the type of sophisticated voter identification models, using detailed demographic and consumer data, employed by the Republican National Committee beginning in 2002. Starting in the summer, the campaigns used that data to find Iowans who had not caucused before and who might be inclined to support their candidate.

It was that kind of research that led Mrs. Clinton to determine, for example, that women over 65 were inclined to support her, in particular widows or married women, but only those married to a Democrat or independent. Using that model and state election records, they searched for Iowans who had voted in regular elections but had not caucused. Mr. Obama did much the same thing with, for example, independent voters under 50.

They dispatched canvassers to make multiple personal visits to the homes of those people, a decision reflecting the determination by both campaigns that Iowa voters have been so deluged with telephone calls that they could not rely on telephone banks typically used. Because research conducted by her campaign found that many Iowans who supported Mrs. Clinton but had never caucused before found the process intimidating or baffling, her aides showed up at the homes of those voters with DVD's that explained how the caucuses work.

"It's always hard to expand the base," Mr. Culver said. "But if there was ever a year when we could have another 20,000 people turn up, this is it."

At the Edwards headquarters, Ms. Dillon said she doubted there would be a significant increase in voters. She expressed skepticism that her rivals' expenditures on mailings, gifts and personal contacts would bear fruit. "Iowa voters are not going to say, 'Oh my God! I got a bumper sticker. I should caucus!' " she said.

The intensity of the effort is fueled by the decisions of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama to decline public campaign financing. They are thus not constrained by the spending ceilings of the campaign finance system that restrict Mr. Edwards, of North Carolina, who is using public money.

Mrs. Clinton's campaign, in the first mailing to first-time caucusgoers who pledge to support her, includes porcelain lapel pins identifying them as Clinton supporters. Mrs. Clinton looks for women wearing those pins at her events and praises them for caucusing for the first time.

Mr. Obama is focusing on younger voters, who have brought considerable energy to his campaign but who as a group have not tended to turn out to vote in large numbers in past presidential elections. As supporters walk into a campaign stop for Mr. Obama, separate lines are designated for high school and college students to receive specific instructions for caucus night. After his speech, he holds a brief meeting and photograph session with his young supporters who belong to a program called Barack Stars.

Obama supporters of all ages receive a yellow slip of paper - a "Ticket to Change" - with directions to their caucus site and a telephone hot line (one for each of Iowa's five area codes) to answer questions.

To expand the universe of caucus