Campaigns hit a peak in Pennsylvania valley
EASTON, Pa. - The morning specialty at Tracy's Cafe in Lehigh Valley is fresh fruit waffles, but regulars are stuffing themselves on politics lately.
"You can't go through a day without being engaged in a conversation about the presidential race," said state Rep. Bob Freeman, a frequent customer. "The valley is the place to watch. Whoever carries the valley will probably be the one who carries the state."
This old farming and manufacturing region, now a health care and high-tech corridor in eastern Pennsylvania, is a swing district and a good place to measure the mood leading up to Tuesday's long-awaited Democratic primary for the state's 103 elected delegates.
For Sen. Barack Obama, who already leads in delegates but cannot go over the top here, a victory would pierce Sen. Hillary Clinton's claim that he can't win the big states.
But a win for Clinton would buttress her never-say-die quest for the presidency.
And it feels like a close call in the valley.
Pennoslavia
Pennsylvania is big and diverse. "No one has a clear definition of what a Pennsylvanian is," said Harold Cox at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, which is in coal country.
Analysts joke that the state is America's Yugoslavia, a whole of rival parts, or two big industrial cities separated by Alabama in the middle.
In fact, Pennsylvania comprises the descendants of eastern European families who grew up working in Pittsburgh's steel mills to the west, small farmers in the south-central region, the tough sons and daughters of coal miners up north, and the multiracial, intellectual mix that is Philadelphia anchoring the state's southeast corner.
Clinton holds a lead - one that has shrunk - in statewide polls. But Obama is strongly favored in Philadelphia, and polls show him holding a slight lead in four increasingly Democratic counties around the city.
Out in the state, however, he has a problem.
"We're not prejudiced," said Pat Archacavage, 49, a restaurant worker in the old coal town of Nanticoke, where the last mine closed in 1973, "but if you have an unskilled black and an unskilled white, the black will get the job. If Obama gets in, will he say, 'We're black, now we're in charge - time for payback?' "
On the other hand, Michael O'Donnell, a 25-year-old warehouse supervisor, sat on a Nanticoke street curb reading the local newspaper. He pointed to a picture of Obama taken at Wednesday's debate.
"I'm going with him," he said firmly. "I've lived here 25 years, and nothing has changed. We have to have change."
That's why former Pittsburgh Mayor Tom Murphy figures the successful candidate is the one who best tackles the question of new jobs without losing family and neighborhood ties: "How do you talk about change and still give people comfort?"
Obama has consistently stayed ahead of Clinton in advertising, reportedly spending about $7 million statewide to her $2.7 million. But in the expensive Philadelphia market, Clinton may have caught up.
Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is a major backer of Clinton, while Sen. Robert Casey endorsed Obama and toured the state with him, including the campaign stop at which Obama bowled his infamous gutter balls.
Obama backers see hope in Rendell's gubernatorial primary victory in 2002. Then the Philadelphian carried the eight counties in that urban area by a 4-1 margin. He won only two of the remaining 59 counties in the state, but it was enough to beat Casey.
Lehigh on the list
The Lehigh Valley, nestled near coal country, the Philadelphia suburbs and the Delaware River, went for Rendell. Voters have picked the winner in every statewide election for governor - Republicans and Democrats - since the mid-1980s.
Interest in the race is high from the comfortable enclave of Victorian homes on Easton's College Hill to the working-class streets on Bethlehem's old industrial South Side to upscale developments off the interstates.
"It gives you access to almost any type of voter that you could imagine," said Christopher Borick at the Institute of Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.
More than 6,000 new voters have registered in Lehigh County since last April, and nearly six times that many since 2004.
In blue-collar Mountainville, Tony Rodriguez plans to vote for the first time in his life. The railroad conductor and father of five said his reasons were purely economic.
"For working-class people to be able to make a living, it's just getting harder and harder," Rodriguez said as he and his wife, Amelia, walked into the Sunrise Diner for lunch. "We should at least be comfortable, and it seems like we're living week by week."
He plans to vote for Obama, who campaigned in the valley last month and drew several thousand people for a speech at Muhlenberg College.
"I was very impressed," said Kim Kaufman, a 19-year-old Muhlenberg freshman from Media, Pa.
"I think he was more open-minded toward changing everything. I just want this war to end soon."
Clinton's supporters are like Tracy Meilinger, 37, who owns the cafe:
"I like her battling. I like the way she speaks. She takes the brunt of the media. I don't think they give her a fair shake."
Carl Rohrbach, a 59-year-old accountant from Bethlehem, thinks Obama is too liberal. He prefers Clinton's "moderate stance, similar to her husband's."
But it's closer than he ever imagined: "I thought Clinton would have hooked it by now."
"My sense is now it's probably a toss-up," said Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. "She really needs to get here. I've told them that many times."
Clinton's camp sent former President Bill Clinton, who also got a big crowd at Muhlenberg, and daughter Chelsea. Her schedule shows her in Bethlehem today.
The valley has seen the namesake Bethlehem Steel plant, its industrial heart for more than a century, close in 1995 and development gobble up the farmland. An entertainment and arts complex anchored by a Sands casino is planned near the old grounds.
It's the kind of place where Obama's remarks about how people in small Pennsylvania towns were "bitter" over their shuttered shops and factories had some resonance.
The guns and religion reference didn't help him. In Nazareth, once dominated by the cement and textile industries, Mayor Earl Keller said people were more "concerned" than bitter.
"We have empty storefronts here," said Keller, an Obama backer. "People are now going to the mall. We've had our time. We have to do something different."
Yet overall, the valley is a success story. Health care and technology are the new economic engines, and job growth has been nearly three times the state average.
Its blue-collar work force, large number of seniors and growing Hispanic population should help Clinton. Students from the six private colleges, a Penn State branch campus and two community colleges should benefit Obama.
So, too, should a wave of younger, more educated and affluent residents who've moved in over the last two decades. Many are commuters, drawn by the easy access to New York and New Jersey.
"I've been weighing which candidate might be better rather than which one might be the least bad," said Ed Erwell, 63, an engineer in Allentown. "I think this is the best thing that's happened to the Democratic Party in a long time."
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