To pass the time between tit-for-tats between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and waiting for one to implode, let's look at the long road ahead.

Karl Rove, love him or loathe him, is an astute political observer. He notes today that just eight weeks have elapsed since Iowa, and now we're facing seven weeks to Pennsylvania. This race looks like it's going at least to Puerto Rico.

Anything can happen between now and then to upend the dynamics, as the past two months have shown. That includes outside events. As for the wisdom of counting a Clinton out of anything, ask Newt Gingrich.

That said, the demographics of the upcoming races offer hints of what's ahead: a dozen contests, with Clinton favored in Pennsylvania, perhaps Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe South Dakota and Puerto Rico. Obama has an advantage in Wyoming, Mississippi, possibly Guam, North Carolina, Oregon and Montana.

The big question is Michigan and Florida, with 376 delegates in all. Expect revotes. The demographics of both states favor Clinton. Both are too important to ignore. They have too many delegates in a situation where neither candidate can reach 2025 without superdelegates. Disenfrancising 1.7 million Florida voters is not a good way for Democrats to follow the 2000 recount. Nor is seating the votes the way they were cast by changing the rules after the fact. That would look, smell and taste like stealing the election. Bad idea. Camp Clinton should drop it. All of this argues for a revote, whatever the cost.

Emotions among partisans are verging on out of control, and it's never a bad idea to take a deep breath and attempt objectivity. Both campaigns claim the other went negative first; Obama's under-the-radar attacks in Ohio preceded the 3 a.m. ad in Texas. Whatever the merits or demerits of each, both pale next to what the RNC has in mind. The attacks also probe each candidate's weaknesses. Grueling presidential campaigns ALWAYS reveal a future president's flaws. Watch carefully, and be warned.

Obama's rally speech, after you've heard it 10 times, is growing stale. He needs to start filling it out with more substance. Clinton's tedious policy prescriptions are uninspiring. She needs to find a voice that can give voters a reason to believe she can lead the country.

When you really get indignant, think about what Joe Trippi, former campaign manager for John Edwards, said today: "People, deep down, like both her and Obama. When either one of them is on the ropes, they dont' want to see either one of them die."

May the best politician win.

By Carolyn Lochhead, San Francisco Chronicle, March 06 2008