Observers say Ky. could matter in presidential race
They've got just that with the Kentucky Derby on Saturday followed shortly later by a race of a different sort - the neck-and-neck scramble for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
"They're always enthusiastic about the Kentucky Derby, but this is the first time in a long time that Kentucky could play a significant role in the presidential race," said Kendra Stewart, a political scientist at Eastern Kentucky University.Traditionally, because its primary falls late in the cycle, Kentucky has fallen to the back of the pack when it comes to the national presidential scene. But this year, as one of the last states holding a primary, Kentucky is finding itself increasingly in the spotlight.
What in the past has rendered Kentucky voters essentially voiceless in picking the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees could this year become a blessing in the campaign's final stretch. At least for Democrats.
Not since 1988 has Kentucky had much of a voice in choosing a presidential nominee. That's the year the state joined with others in the South for a Super Tuesday vote.
While other states rushed to hold early primaries this year, Kentucky election officials chose to keep the traditional May balloting, saying that doing so could strengthen the state's political muscle in a tight race. Maybe it has.
Kentucky's primary is May 20.
With the Democratic nomination still up for grabs, Clinton has already campaigned in the state, making stops in Louisville and Madisonville, and dispatching her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and daughter, Chelsea Clinton, to campaign in other Kentucky towns. Obama has opened campaign offices in Kentucky, and presumed Republican nominee John McCain visited Kentucky last week.
Jennifer Moore, chairwoman of the Kentucky Democratic party and a superdelegate, predicted there would be a higher turnout than usual in this year's primary. And, more people Kentucky seem to be getting enthusiastic about the presidential race, Moore said.
"We're one of the last primaries and that is going to have a significant factor in who becomes the Democratic nominee," Moore said. "And Kentuckians have the opportunity to make their voices heard loud and clear on May 20."
Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the state's chief election official, predicted early last year that keeping the traditional date could make Kentucky a player in the presidential race, though he acknowledged at the time that such a scenario was a longshot.
"Ironically, it probably did benefit us, although we will know for sure after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries happen," Grayson said.
A sweep by Obama in those two states on May 6 could cement his nomination. If not, Grayson said, Kentucky remains relevant.
In Kentucky, political campaigns typically go into high gear only after the derby winner is decided. Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan, a former Inez banker, calls the Derby "the demarcation" that signals the start of primary campaigns in the state.
"In any election, the focus comes toward the end," Duncan said. "You start running your ads on a more intense basis during that time, and it's more on people's minds."
Joe Gershtenson, director of the Center for Kentucky History and Politics at Eastern Kentucky University, said he is concerned that the excitement could wane before voters go to the polls.
"It's clear that neither of these candidates can wrap this thing up," he said. "There's a feeling that, gosh, no matter what happens in Kentucky and some of these other states, that it's not going to be decided until the convention anyway."
But Jonathan Hurst, state director for Clinton's campaign in Kentucky, said the race here is being taken "very seriously." The campaign was opening headquarters throughout the state, and the senator is expected to make more visits to the state in the coming weeks, Hurst said.
"Kentuckians by and large are very excited that they are going to be major players in the presidential race," Hurst said. "They're one of the few states remaining in a very closely fought primary. That, I think, is a real positive."


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