Remarks That Led to Hand-Wringing in Clinton Camp May Have Paid Off
Ignoring all the thou-shalt-nots of expectations management, former President Bill Clinton declared in Beaumont, Tex., several weeks ago that his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, needed to win the primaries in Ohio and Texas to stay alive in her battle with Senator Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democratic presidential nomination.
"If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she will be the nominee," Mr. Clinton said. "If you don't deliver for her, then I don't think she can be."
On Tuesday, Mrs. Clinton pulled off triumphs in both states, and in Rhode Island. So instead of his remarks becoming Exhibit No. 1 for Democratic power brokers, pundits and others marshaling arguments for her to bow out of the race, Mr. Clinton's pronouncement now looks like a dead-on critical call-to-arms, the latest example of his legendary political instincts.
After Mr. Clinton made the remarks, Mrs. Clinton was constantly asked about them on the campaign trail, and her advisers struggled to carve out room for her to wriggle away from the assessment as polls showed her losing her earlier edge. If she had lost either state, the remarks would have boxed her in and could have been labeled another gaffe from Mr. Clinton in a campaign that has already been pockmarked by them.
Recognizing that the pressure on her to exit the race would be enormous if she lost either state, Mrs. Clinton's advisers had been doing their best to retreat from the pronouncement, suggesting that an Ohio victory alone would be enough for her to continue on to the delegate-rich Pennsylvania primary on April 22.
Some outside political strategists said Mr. Clinton's comments were a shrewd effort to re-energize a flagging campaign.
Joe Trippi, who was a senior strategist for John Edward's presidential campaign, said he believed that Mr. Clinton's remarks were politically astute, whether they were scripted or improvised in the heat of the moment.
"People, deep down, like both her and Obama," Mr. Trippi said. "When either one of them is on the ropes, they don't want to see either one of them die."
He added that he believed that Mr. Clinton recognized that pattern when he made his comments.
"She needs your help is not a bad strategy," Mr. Trippi said.
Paul Begala, a former adviser to Mr. Clinton, said he believed that the comment was a moment of candor, which voters tend to appreciate, comparing it to when Mr. Obama's wife, Michelle, declared at a rally in Iowa before the caucuses that her husband needed to win the state in order to continue.
"Authenticity is the thing voters want most," Mr. Begala said. "Here's Bill Clinton standing up, having gone to Georgetown and to Oxford and to Yale. He now has a Ph.D. of the obvious. After 11 losses, you need a win."
Mr. Begala said he had no idea if the moment was poll-tested and planned but said he tended to doubt it, adding that he believed Mr. Clinton saw the political benefits and the potential fallout.
"He is the most transparent of politicians," Mr. Begala said. "If he thinks something, he says it."
There is, after all, the matter of simple mathematical reality with the delegate count.
Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said Mr. Clinton just articulated a reality that was obvious. Mrs. Clinton still faces steep odds, Mr. Mellman said, but she can at least make a case now to the all-important superdelegates who could decide the contest.
"Her only chance was to win both big ones," he said, "and she did."


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