A failure to commit to either Obama or Clinton by June could be disastrous for the Democratic party, some say

Careening toward presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is the last date on the primary calendar in early June, and with it, mounting pressure for the undecided superdelegates to choose sides in the increasingly bitter fight.

The some 300 party elders still uncommitted -- six in Pennsylvania -- represent the biggest bulk of delegates still undeclared, a group that will effectively decide the nominee. The question is when.

''It is a timing thing,'' said U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, an uncommitted superdelegate from Pittsburgh's 14th District. ''And I think it is going to be brought to a head sooner than later.''

Nearly four months after Iowa kicked off the primary season, Obama and Clinton are locked in as heated a battle for the nomination as during any point in the race, trading blows on the stump and over the airwaves while exposing each others' general election vulnerabilities. The pitched battle has many in the party, including Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, pushing to end the contest soon after voting ends June 3.

''The worst thing that could happen is to continue this campaign for three months,'' said U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire, who has said he will decide who he'll support after the last primaries in South Dakota and Montana. ''That would really damage the eventual nominee.''

Said U.S. Rep. Tim Holden, D-17th District: ''It would be disastrous to go all the way to the convention [without a nominee].''

Altmire and Holden are among the nation's nearly 800 superdelegates. They share the stage with other members of Congress, governors, Democratic National Committee Members and distinguished party leaders. Twenty of the superdelegates in Pennsylvania have made their choice, 15 for Clinton and five for Obama. Six are undecided.

Three others will be chosen at the state party committee meeting in June.

Voters in the Lehigh Valley appear mixed on what superdelegates should do.

Exit polls conducted Tuesday in Lehigh County by Muhlenberg College showed that 47 percent of voters think superdelegates should back the delegate leader, while 40 percent said they should pick who they think is the best candidate. Obama supporters -- by a two-to-one margin -- said superdelegates should pick the delegate leader, while most Clinton backers said they should vote for the best candidate.

Similarly, a mid-April poll by the college's Institute of Public Opinion found that 49 percent of voters in Lehigh and Northampton counties would rather see superdelegates base their votes on the results of primaries and caucuses, compared with 35 percent who said they should vote based on who they think would be the best candidate.

Clinton's win in Pennsylvania cut Obama's delegate lead to 130 and reduced his popular vote margin to less than 500,000, giving added pause to superdelegates as they mull over their decision. It also gave a much-needed fundraising boost to a Clinton campaign that has been running on fumes. Her campaign began April with $10 million in debt and just $9 million cash on hand for the primaries. Her campaign said she raised $10 million in the first day after her Pennsylvania win.

Obama's campaign began the month with $42 million in the bank.

The New York senator's campaign argues that superdelegates should consider the votes of Florida and Michigan when choosing sides in the contest.

Results in those two states have been discounted by the DNC because the states scheduled their primaries too early. Including those two states - Obama didn't get any votes in Michigan because he took himself off the ballot - would give Clinton a slight edge in the overall popular vote.

Supporters also argue that superdelegates should pay attention to Clinton's proven ability to win the much-needed big states that figure to be hugely significant to Democrats in the fall campaign.

''It is clear that Sen. Clinton is the best standard-bearer for us in the fall,'' Clinton supporter Gov. Ed Rendell said the day after Clinton's 9-point win in Pennsylvania, a key general election battleground. ''And superdelegates have to take a deep breath and think about that.''

The Obama campaign says that argument is flawed and points to polls showing the Illinois senator running strong against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain -- both nationwide and in Pennsylvania -- in a hypothetical general election matchup.

''The big-state argument in a primary is kind of ridiculous,'' said U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, an Obama backer. ''Anyone who knows anything about the basic fundamentals of politics [knows] that you can't make predictions about what will happen in a general election based upon a primary.''

He added: ''It is my sense that there will be a confluence between popular will and delegates and elected officials making up their minds.''

Clinton's campaign is hoping that if it closes the gap in delegates and wins the popular vote in coming weeks, it will have a stronger argument on its hands.

''She has to keep winning, there is no question,'' said U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, D-13th District, a Clinton backer. ''But there is no magic number to me.''

But Schwartz, a Clinton backer, has already made her decision. It's folks like Doyle and Altmire who will be the judges of any magic number.

Doyle, whose congressional district was one of only three to back Obama on Tuesday, said Clinton must pull in front in the delegate contest or the popular vote if she is to make an argument for superdelegates' support. Altmire said the same.

''To me, Hillary Clinton has no case to make to the superdelegates if she isn't leading in one of those categories,'' Doyle said.

He said he won't make a decision before Indiana and North Carolina vote May 6, but pledged to decide by July.

''I don't see a case where we go past the end of June,'' he said. ''We need to be able to crown a nominee and go into Denver united.''




By Josh Drobnyk, The Morning Call, April 27, 2008