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Thursday, May 15, 2008

A Clinton landslide in West Virginia that she hopes echoes elsewhere

Her win was big. The 41-point victory she racked up was not only decisive, it was enormous. And even though there wasn't a big swing in delegates for her, she did pick up at least a few.

Overall, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had much to feel good about Tuesday night. And no, she's not giving up. While she just gently poked her opponent Sen. Barack Obama in her victory speech, she again outlined her argument about how she was the better general-election candidate.

Senator Obama's campaign, however, was trying to put a different spin on the night.
Obama was not only in a different state, not only in a different time zone, he was campaigning in a different election. He was in Missouri, which held its primary long ago, talking about November and presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain.

The goal was to make Senator Clinton's victory look less like a win against an actual opponent than a pickup game followed by a pep rally on her home court without significance. It was meant to blunt any momentum Clinton might claim from her landslide win.

It was also a calculated gamble, because it meant he spent barely any time in the state. And while West Virginia was never going to be Obama country, as Patchwork Nation noted Monday, a little campaigning may have helped the Illinois senator's margin of defeat. After all, no state likes to be ignored.

For sure, in terms of demographics, West Virginia was tailor-made for Clinton. But that doesn't take away from the scale of her victory. Every single county and every Patchwork Nation community type in the state went for her.

Clinton routed Obama in the community types that have been her strongholds during the primary season: the state's 14 "Emptying Nest," nine "Tractor COuntry" counties, and seven "Evangelical Epicenters." She took it to him in the state's eight "Service Worker Centers," which have been good to her in this region of the country.

Clinton also defeated him in the state's five "Boom Towns" counties, a community type that the two candidates tend to split.

In the end, even the college students couldn't help Obama in West Virginia. He lost all eight of the state's "Campus and Careers" counties including Monongalia, the home of West Virginia University where he lost by double-digits. In most states, big college towns have been Obama turf.

Clinton may cite that as evidence that the tide is turning. She talked Tuesday night about how West Virginia is a swing state that the Democrats must win.

Obama will probably write it off as what happens when he doesn't campaign in a state that favors her. He may note, too, that in 2004 President Bush won West Virginia by 13 percent, a margin that doesn't scream swing state.

Now it's on to the primaries in Kentucky and Oregon next Tuesday. According to the latest polls, Obama appears likely to win in the Pacific Northwest, while Clinton is poised to pick up another victory in the Appalachians.

Meanwhile, Clinton hopes her win in West Virginia was so massive that it moves some of those numbers - in Oregon as well as in Montana and South Dakota - where experts say Obama will do well on Jun. 3.

Time will tell.



By Dante Chinni, The Christian Science Monitor, May 14, 2008


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