If Sen. Barack Obama popped the question, Sen. Evan Bayh would say yes.

But pundits and politicians agree that whether a political marriage will happen between Bayh and Obama on the Democratic presidential ticket is anybody's guess.

For Bayh, the speculation that he is on a vice presidential short list is nothing new. He has been mentioned as a potential running mate in almost every election since 1992, when he was a first-term governor who received national attention for winning Indiana's top office in a predominantly Republican state.

In 2000, Bayh was among six finalists to be Vice President Al Gore's running mate, losing out to Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman.

Last week, Bayh echoed what he said in 1992, 2000 and 2004 when such speculation surfaced: He's flattered.

Ask him whether he's interested in being vice president, and Bayh demurs.

"You ask it that way, the answer would be no," he said. "I like serving the people of Indiana."

But, he added: "If someone who might be president asked me to help, of course I'd be willing to say yes. I don't think you refuse someone who may be leading the country if they ask for your help in meeting the challenges we face."

That might sound like political double-speak, but Bayh has learned from experience that it's a question requiring a carefully considered answer.

"My biggest problem in answering these kinds of questions is that if I say yes, people say, 'Oh, well, he's being presumptuous and campaigning for it.' If you say no, then people say you're being disingenuous and not telling the truth," he said with a laugh. "You either look like you're an egotist or less than straightforward. It's a no-win thing."

Still, Bayh's supporters say being mentioned as a potential vice president is a no-lose matter that only bolsters the senator's reputation.

And, many say, Bayh has some assets that Obama may need, including executive experience as governor; foreign policy experience in the Senate; and the ability to win the votes of working-class Democrats, independents and some Republicans. It also doesn't hurt that Bayh was a big supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's and could help Obama win over Clinton supporters still feeling the sting of her primary defeat, they say.

Jason Wright, founder and editor of the political Web site politicalderby.com, feels so strongly about Bayh's credentials that he named him as both his No. 1 and No. 2 pick as Obama's running mate.

"He's unbelievably popular," Wright said of Bayh, who won election to the Senate in 1998 with 64 percent of the vote and in 2004 with 62 percent. "There aren't many senators who have been there more than seven minutes that are as popular as Evan Bayh."

The Los Angeles Times also recently included Bayh among five leading picks for Obama's running mate.

Still, not everyone in the blogosphere agrees. A list of potential running mates on The Huffingon Post, for instance, doesn't mention Bayh at all. Not in the five names in the Web site's top tier, including Clinton. Not in the six names labeled "worth watching." Not even alongside the one name -- New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg -- tabbed as "honorable mention."

But Wright, based in Virginia, said: "If I were picking, I think he'd be the absolutely no-brainer choice for the Democrats right now."

Bayh is viewed as an "aisle-crossing, smart, gentle kind of a Democrat who's not afraid of getting his hands dirty when he needs to, as demonstrated by his early endorsement of Hillary Clinton," Wright said.

"He wants it and he admits he wants it, and not everyone is willing to do that," he said. "There's no question in my mind that he views this as his best opportunity not only to become vice president, but to have an open path to the nomination in four or eight years."

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor and pundit, had Bayh among his favorites for the job in 2004 and hasn't changed his mind.

He's not put off by the fact that Indiana borders Obama's home state of Illinois, noting that Bill Clinton, from Arkansas, picked Gore from neighboring Tennessee as his running mate.

Geography, though, is not irrelevant.

"The Midwest is highly competitive territory" in this year's election, Sabato said, saying Bayh could help Obama in such key states as Ohio.

"And, look, at least the early polls suggest that even Indiana isn't completely out of reach for Obama. I don't think Obama's going to carry it without Bayh, and that could be the election right there. If you take a base Republican state like Indiana away from (Republican presidential candidate Sen. John) McCain, he's done for."

Ron Klain, a longtime friend of Bayh's and a former chief of staff to Gore, was involved in selecting running mates for Gore in 2000 and, to a lesser extent, former President Bill Clinton in 1992. He said Bayh brings not only the right resume, but "great regional appeal."

"The election is going to be won or lost within 200 miles of Indianapolis," he said. "Evan would be a great person on the ticket to help carry states like Ohio and Kentucky and Michigan and Wisconsin and a lot of the states that are battleground states."

Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark said he's confident McCain will continue the GOP string of carrying this state in every presidential election since 1968, though he said Bayh's presence on the ticket would be "a challenge," spurring Democratic turnout that could affect other races.

Clark said Bayh has built his popularity in Indiana by being "a moderate, or even sounding like a Republican at times."

That is a partnership Obama could use, he said.

"In order for him to have a chance of winning Midwestern states, he's got to redefine himself," Clark said. "Evan Bayh or somebody akin to him philosophically probably would add to that effort."

Kip Tew, a former Indiana Democratic Party chairman helping to lead Obama's campaign here, thinks Obama will carry Indiana on his own. But, he said, among the assets Bayh has is this: "Evan Bayh will not make any mistakes."

The first two qualities a vice president must have are credibility to be in the job that is a heartbeat away from the presidency and the ability to "do no harm" to the presidential candidate, Tew said. Sabato said the need for a running mate who isn't a loose cannon was shown this week by retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who may have talked himself off a spot on Obama's ticket with his comments about McCain's military record, including that "riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down" does not qualify McCain to be president.

"If Obama learned anything from the Wesley Clark incident, it's that he should pick a seasoned politician," Sabato said. "People like Clark who have never served in public office make gaffe after gaffe."

Bayh has a reputation for being cautious -- his critics would say to a fault -- but Sabato and others said Obama has enough sizzle on his own.

"One of Evan's strengths is there is a wholesomeness, all-American (quality). There's nothing exotic about Evan Bayh, and there's everything that's exotic about Barack Obama," said Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report. "Obama having a running mate with just a dash of beige is probably a good thing."

By Mary Beth Schneider, The Indianapolis Star, July 5, 2008