Can Democrat Becky Greenwald knock off 4th District Republican Rep. Tom Latham to become the first woman Iowa has ever sent to the U.S. House?

Many Democrats think so. Republicans are doubtful, though they acknowledge that 2008 is going to be another uphill year for their party.

And after Democrat Dave Loebsack came out of nowhere to upset veteran Republican Jim Leach in 2006 in the 2nd District, both sides are paying attention to this contest.

Republicans have nominated Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Ottumwa to take on Loebsack this year but given the district's huge Democratic registration edge and the year's Democratic atmospherics, she is given little chance.

The key for Democrat Greenwald, a 55-year-old former Garst and Pioneer marketing executive from Perry, is money. Will national Democratic money sources - especially Emily's List - pour dollars into her contest with Latham?

To get them to make that investment, Greenwald must first convince them she's viable and has got a credible financial base of her own.

So far, it's been an uphill task. According to the latest campaign-finance disclosure reports, Greenwald had only $81,800 in the bank on June 30. Latham had 10 times that amount: $832,388. Greenwald had to get through a four-way primary in June, then had to suspend fundraising in Iowa during the floods. Donors in the Democratic money centers of Des Moines, Iowa City and Cedar Rapids were preoccupied.

Greenwald still has several things going for her. First, the district now has a slight Democratic voter registration edge of around 8,000. When it was created in 2001, Republicans held an edge of about 12,000. The new registrations are largely the result of the highly competitive Democratic caucus campaign that turned out thousands of new voters. Barack Obama's campaign will be turning out many of those same voters in places like Ames.

Second, it's shaping up to be a Democratic year. National polling indicates voters would like to see Democrats in control of Congress, and that Congress is even less popular than President Bush, whose approval numbers are among the worst in the history of polling.

Third is the energy of activist Democratic women and some independents. They've long been unhappy with Iowa's status as one of only four states that have never elected a woman to Congress.

With Hillary Clinton out of the presidential race, Greenwald could become the beneficiary of the energy Clinton generated among women voters. Greenwald tapped that vote to win a decisive victory in a four-way primary. While she says she's not running as a woman, she's clearly playing that card when she tells audiences, "Let's make history."

Finally, the Democrats have a superior ground organization to locate and turn out Democratic voters, a fact that will help offset Latham's fundraising edge.

Latham's incumbency, however, is another big advantage for him. Despite a few upsets, Iowa voters have tended to re-elect members of Congress. After six terms in Congress, the 60-year-old lawmaker is far better known than Greenwald.

He has won praise for his ability to bring federal money back to the district, particularly for Iowa State University, thanks to his increasingly influential position on the appropriations committee. Having some seniority in Washington will be important as Iowa fights for money for flood-recovery work in coming years.

While the early edge in the race has to go to Latham, it's probably wise for the congressman and his staff to put Jim Leach's picture on their desks.

Just to remind them how quickly an early edge can evaporate.

By DAVID YEPSEN, Des Moines Register, July 24, 2008