WASHINGTON (AFP) - Struggling to unpick Barack Obama's lock on the White House nomination, Hillary Clinton is brooking no compromise ahead of a Democratic Party meeting about the outlaw states of Florida and Michigan.

Protestors are set to descend en masse on Saturday's meeting here of the party's rules committee, which has taken on added urgency for the former first lady as the nominating race reaches a climax.

Invoking Robert Mugabe's bloodied Zimbabwe, Clinton argues that democracy itself is at stake in the argument about whether Florida and Michigan should be fully represented at the Democratic convention in August.

"There's one number that we're going to be satisfied with, and that's 2.3 million people having their votes counted," said Tina Flournoy, a pro-Clinton member of the national party's rules and bylaws committee.

What began as an intra-party spat over the timing of the two states' primaries has taken on outsized importance, now that Clinton must squeeze out every last vote and delegate to wrest the Democratic nomination from Obama.

In the process, the New York senator has reversed her own support of the party's punishment of state leaders in Florida and Michigan for holding their contests in January in violation of the primary calendar.

Now, her campaign argues, the party risks electoral suicide in November if it ignores the will of the 1.7 million voters who took part in Florida's primary and the 600,000 who turned out in Michigan.

"Our expectation and our belief is the DNC (Democratic National Committee) will vote on Saturday to seat Florida and Michigan at 100 percent," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said.

Clinton aides were coy about whether they might fight all the way to the convention in Denver if she does not win a favorable outcome this weekend.

However, DNC staff lawyers say it is not an option to restore full voting rights to all 210 delegates originally apportioned to Florida, and the 156 given to Michigan.

In a memo to the committee's 30 members recapping the party's rules, the lawyers said that at most, the DNC could reinstate half the delegates, or give half a vote each to all of them.

Either way, there is no chance of Saturday producing a dramatic boost to Clinton's delegate count as Obama homes in on the right to take on Republican John McCain in the presidential election.

But the Clinton campaign does need Florida and Michigan to count to lend credence to her argument that she leads the national popular vote, and is more electable against McCain in pivotal swing states.

Clinton took 50 percent of the vote in Florida, where all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign. In Michigan, where Obama took his name off the ballot, she took 55 percent to 40 percent for "uncommitted."

According to the Obama campaign, heading into Sunday's primary in Puerto Rico and the two final battles on Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota, he needs just 45 more delegates to reach the current winning line of 2,026.

While that number could go up depending on a DNC fix this weekend, both candidates would still need the support of enough Democratic grandees called "superdelegates" to go over the top. But Obama would need far fewer.

The Illinois senator, anxious to take on McCain, is offering a compromise deal that would give Clinton a slight net gain in delegates from Florida and Michigan, without much changing the overall tally.

"Any compromise beyond a 50-50 split will cost Senator Obama delegates," former DNC chairman David Wilhelm said.

"But the bottom line is that he is acting this weekend in the interest of party unity. And we're going to need that to win in November."

The Obama campaign urged his supporters to stay away from Saturday's meeting. "We're not going to turn this thing into a circus," Wilhelm said.

But one group called Florida Demands Representation said it was expecting more than 2,000 demonstrators at the meeting.

The group, highlighting the state's recount debacle in the 2000 election, has been sending Florida oranges to DNC members inscribed with the message "Count our Vote."

AFP, May 29, 2008

Protests planned at party meeting

WASHINGTON - The epic battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination shifted yesterday to the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan, whose fate is rapidly becoming the flash point for Clinton supporters' anger.

Hundreds of her backers, including a contingent from Massachusetts, plan to protest outside the Washington hotel hosting the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, whose ruling on Saturday could determine whether the nomination fight ends next week - or perhaps continues all the way to the party's convention in late August.

"We want people to know why we're there and that we are supporting the Clinton campaign and we feel she's the better candidate," said Christine Samuelson, a 57-year-old realtor and former Newton alderwoman who volunteered for Clinton in five states during the primaries. "And we want to make sure that she gets a fair shake."

Clinton's loyalists are encouraging the protests - and ratcheting up arguments for why Clinton deserves the lion's share of the un seated delegates because she handily won the two states' unsanctioned primaries. By contrast, Obama's campaign told its supporters in an e-mail to stay away. Currently within 45 delegates of clinching the nomination, Obama wants to avoid a spectacle that could harden the divide within the party.

"With a click of a mouse in the mid-Atlantic, we could get thousands of people there," Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters yesterday. "But in the interest of party unity, we are not encouraging a protest. We don't think a scene is helpful as we try to bring the party together."

Though Plouffe said the fairest resolution "would be a 50-50 split" with Clinton, her campaign has flatly rejected that proposal, saying she should be awarded more delegates, in proportion to her victory margin in both states.

Steven Grossman, a top Clinton fund-raiser and Massachusetts supporter, said Obama would be wise to recognize that Saturday will be a "singular moment" to mollify Clinton and her supporters. "To the extent that Senator Obama and his campaign and his supporters demonstrate the kind of collegiality and collaboration on Saturday that shows both the kind of nominee he will be, should he be the nominee, and the kind of president he will be, should he win on Nov. 4, that will go a long way toward rebuilding relationships that are going to be essential over the next several months to beat John McCain," said Grossman, a former national party chairman.

The Democratic National Committee voided the Florida and Michigan delegations to punish them for holding primaries in January, ahead of schedule. The candidates pledged not to campaign in the two states, and Obama pulled his name off the Michigan ballot.

But as she fell behind Obama, Clinton began arguing more emphatically that her wins should count, and she now needs the biggest possible gain from the two states to have any hope of catching Obama. Campaigning last week in Florida, she compared her fight to the struggles of blacks and women for the right to vote and warned that Democrats were in danger of repeating the 2000 Florida presidential vote debacle.

The rules committee is scheduled Saturday to hear from both campaigns and come up with a settlement, but its ruling could be appealed to the credentials committee at the national convention.

In a memo sent to the rules committee late Tuesday, the party's lawyers declared that at most the panel can restore only half of the two states' 368 total delegates. The DNC said yesterday, however, that the lawyers were not recommending that solution, and their memo did not outline how to divide any delegates between Clinton and Obama.

Senior Clinton aides also disputed that the lawyers' memo called for taking away at least half of the two states' delegates.

If Clinton were awarded half the delegates she won in the two states, and if Obama received none from Michigan, she would cut his lead from about 200 delegates to 150, and Obama would be about 50 delegates farther away from the finish line.

Of the 30-member rules panel, 13 have endorsed Clinton, eight have endorsed Obama, and the rest - including the two cochairpersons - are undeclared. Clinton advisers could not say whether all of her backers would vote for full seating of the delegates.

"We are hopeful and expectant that people will do the right thing - and the right thing will be seating delegates at 100 percent of strength," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director.

Clinton also wants the popular votes in Florida and Michigan to count to give her the overall lead - a key part of her closing argument to the dwindling number of undeclared superdelegates, the party and elected officials who in all likelihood will decide the nomination.

She sent them a letter and accompanying 11-page memo yesterday, insisting that she, not Obama, would be the strongest Democrat to go up against McCain in November. She contends that she has won more primaries than Obama, leads McCain in the polls in the swing states a Democrat must win, and has the support of most core Democratic voters: women, seniors, Latinos, and working-class and rural voters.

"And most important," she wrote to superdelegates, "I hope you will think about who is ready to stand on that stage with Senator McCain, fight for the deepest principles of our party, and lead our country forward into this new century."

As the fiercely-contested, sometimes bitter contest between Clinton and Obama heads toward resolution, the strong undercurrent of anger among many Clinton supporters could hamstring Obama's attempt to unify the party behind him if, as expected, he secures the nomination.

Her supporters, including older women - her central constituency and an important one for Obama to win over - resent the repeated calls over the last several weeks by prominent Democrats for Clinton to drop out. And they believe party officials have been dismissive of Clinton's claims about winning Michigan and Florida outright, and too willing to embrace Obama as the presumptive nominee.

Samuelson and a small group of supporters have purchased air time on local television for a 30-second ad contending that the Florida and Michigan delegations should be seated for Clinton. Samuelson said that if the election were held today, she would write in Clinton's name on the ballot rather than vote for Obama.

Therese Murray, the Massachusetts Senate president and an ardent Clinton backer, said if the rules panel does not fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegations, it would regret it come November. "The voters shouldn't be disenfranchised. They went out and they voted in force," she said.

But others say the divisions within the party will fall away once the general election race begins in earnest.

"In the heat of a contest, people say all kinds of things," said state Representative Ruth B. Balser, a Clinton supporter who said she will support the Democratic nominee, whoever it is. "What's important is that both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have said that at the end of the day, whoever is the nominee, they will work their heart out to elect a Democrat. They have set the tone."

By Joseph Williams and Scott Helman, The Boston Globe, May 29, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) - The long, drawn-out Democratic presidential primary season finally draws to a close next Tuesday. Hillary Clinton takes her campaign today to one of the last two states voting, South Dakota. Rival Barack Obama is taking a breather back home in Chicago. And Republican John McCain will be talking to voters in Wisconsin.

South Dakota is predominantly Republican. And even though many of its voters have a lot in common with those who've backed Clinton in other primaries, most of the South Dakota Democrats who've ever won statewide election are backing Obama. That includes former Senator George McGovern, who was the presidential nominee in 1972.

South Dakota and Montana on Tuesday are a final chance for the candidates to display vote-getting power that could sway superdelegates elsewhere.

Kevin Rodriquez is a superdelegate from the U.S. Virgin Islands. And he's become the first to switch away from Obama and back to Clinton. It's the second time he's switched. Rodriquez won't say why but says it's his right and is about doing "what's best for America."

Meanwhile, Republican presidential candidate John McCain dared Obama to make a joint visit with him to Iraq to see "the facts on the ground" and accused the Democratic front-runner of lacking the wisdom or experience to back his view that the war was a mistake.

Obama snapped back that "I don't think John McCain or the Bush administration have a very strong argument to make about their foreign policy, so they're going to try to come up with diversions or distractions and not argue the substance."

Obama's campaign has been considering an overseas trip since last year to beef up his foreign policy credentials, but the extended fight for the Democratic nomination with Hillary Rodham Clinton has delayed those plans.

"A trip is under consideration but no final plans have been made," Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said.

The Illinois senator made his only trip to Iraq in January 2006 as part of a congressional delegation. McCain, a senator from Arizona, has been to Iraq eight times, most recently in March.

Obama picked up some fresh support Wednesday heading into a primary that could finally put him over the edge for the Democratic nomination.

Obama, who has increasingly turned his attention to the general election, got endorsements Wednesday from four more superdelegates but lost one. Their backing is essential because they are free to vote as they chose in the party's nominating convention in August.

Heading into Sunday's primary in Puerto Rico, the first-term senator has a nearly insurmountable lead in delegates to the party's national nominating convention, and is now 45 short of the 2,026 needed to capture the party's White House nod.

Puerto Rico's presidential primary, the island's first in nearly three decades, has brought the focus of American politics to a U.S. territory where residents cannot vote in the general election and largely do not identify with any mainland party.

But, with 55 delegates to be apportioned between him and Clinton, eyes are on the territory because Obama could theoretically clinch the nomination if he beats his rival. Clinton is counting on a victory to bolster her claim to have won the majority of popular votes based on a selective count of Democratic contests.

On Wednesday, McCain was continuing fundraising, with events in Los Angeles and Reno, Nevada. Obama was also in the west, offering a prelude to a likely general election matchup and the inevitable fight for three booming battleground states.

McCain sounded stung that Obama characterized the idea of a joint visit to Iraq as a "stunt," saying it showed Obama's "lack of appreciation of the importance of this issue."

"I just don't want to be involved in a political stunt," Obama said told the Web site of The New York Times on Wednesday.

"I think that if I'm going to Iraq, then I'm there to talk to troops and talk to commanders," Obama said in the interview. "I'm not there to try to score political points or perform. The work they're doing there is too important."

McCain supports continued U.S. military involvement in Iraq; Obama opposes the war and wants to bring home the troops.

McCain said Obama "was driven to his position by ideology and not by the facts on the ground. And he does not have the knowledge or the experience to make the judgments. Presidents have to listen and learn. Presidents have to make judgments no matter how popular or unpopular they may be."

Obama, who spoke to reporters on his airplane Wednesday night as he flew home to Chicago, said it's "not relevant" that he hasn't been to Iraq since 2006 and that McCain was using the argument as a diversion.

Clinton campaigned Wednesday in South Dakota which along with Montana hold the last two primaries on June 3. Her campaign aides were in Washington peppering uncommitted superdelegates with data indicating why she should be the Democratic presidential nominee.

Obama has 1,981 delegates, to Clinton's 1,780. A total of 2,026 delegates are needed to secure the nomination at present.

Clinton also is counting on a Democratic Party rules committee Saturday to seat the delegations from Michigan and Florida, whose primaries were voided when they were moved into January in violation of party rules.

Obama is willing to give her the lion's share of those delegates but is stopping short of her demand to fully recognize the two renegade states.

The DNC staff wrote in an analysis sent to members this week that the rules call for the two states to lose at least half their delegates at a minimum for voting too early.

The Associated Press, May 29, 2008

An analysis by lawyers for the Democratic Party says party rules call for Florida and Michigan to lose at least half their delegate strength at the party's convention in August, an outcome that could close off Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's last opportunity to cut significantly into Senator Barack Obama's lead in delegates.

The legal analysis, sent late Tuesday to the party's rules committee, is expected to guide a meeting this weekend where the committee will try to settle one of the most contentious issues remaining in the Democratic presidential race: what to do with delegates from Florida and Michigan, which violated party rules by moving up their primaries ahead of Feb. 5.

Mrs. Clinton had hoped for the full Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated, and for their votes to be apportioned according to the results in their primaries, which she won. But the lawyers' analysis said that as punishment for the primaries' being held early, party rules allowed the states nothing more than that their delegations be cut in half, or that the full delegations be seated with each delegate getting only half a vote.

As a result, Mrs. Clinton would appear to need all the more superdelegates to swing her way if she has any remaining hope for the nomination.

To that end, she stepped up her appeal Wednesday to superdelegates, the Democratic officeholders and party officials who could ultimately decide the nomination. In a letter, she argued that she would be a stronger nominee than Mr. Obama against Senator John McCain in the fall.

She leads in polls in swing states, the letter said, has support from regions and demographics that the Democrats need, is ahead of Mr. McCain in Gallup national tracking polls while Mr. Obama is behind him, and is better positioned to win in the Electoral College, mainly because she leads Mr. McCain in polls in Ohio and Florida.

The Democratic nominating battle has only three primaries left, and all take place over the next week, in Puerto Rico on Sunday and in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Mr. Obama may be poised to claim the nomination after those contests, though he will need additional superdelegates to do so.

Mr. Obama is now a mere 51 delegates short of the 2,026 needed for the nomination. Those numbers do not count Florida and Michigan, and so they could be altered somewhat by the results of the rules committee's meeting.

The committee is to convene Saturday at a Washington hotel. Demonstrations are expected there on Mrs. Clinton's behalf; the Clinton campaign has said it is not organizing them but has not discouraged them.

David Plouffe, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, said the Obama camp had advised against rallies, despite calls on the Internet for counterprotests. Mr. Plouffe said the campaign did not want to contribute to a chaotic scene, which, he said, would not serve the interests of party unity.

Mrs. Clinton's organization is still hoping that the rules committee seats at least some of the Florida and Michigan delegates. Such a decision could legitimize her claims to hundreds of thousands of popular votes in the two states and bolster her assertion that she leads Mr. Obama in popular votes nationally, though he did not even appear on the ballot in Michigan.

Whatever the committee decides, Mrs. Clinton could appeal its decision by undertaking a credentials fight at the convention.

For now, though, both campaigns are negotiating with the committee's co-chairmen. Mr. Obama has said he wants Florida and Michigan delegates seated. He has not specified how many, or how they should be apportioned, but on Wednesday, Mr. Plouffe told reporters that Mrs. Clinton was "going to end up netting delegates if there's a compromise here, and we think that's a pretty major concession."

It is not a concession the Obama camp would make, of course, if it in any way threatened Mr. Obama's delegate lead.

The committee has several sticky issues to address. That Mr. Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, for example, raises the question of what proportion of delegates he might be awarded, if any, from that state. One compromise calls for him to be awarded the 40 percent received by "uncommitted."

In addition, the committee, while trying not to alienate voters in these two battleground states, does want to send a signal to all states that it will punish them if they try to jump ahead in the presidential primaries four years from now.

Mrs. Clinton pressed her case Wednesday on multiple fronts: on the campaign trail, in a written fund-raising appeal and in the letter to superdelegates.

Accompanying that letter was a fact sheet citing a quotation from Mr. Obama that suggested there might be some injustice if the nomination was not given to the candidate with the most popular votes.

"On February 8th," it said, "Senator Obama said that if someone had the most pledged delegates and the most votes in the country, that 'it would be problematic for political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters.' It appears that when all the votes are counted June 3rd, Hillary Clinton will be the candidate with the most votes."

Mrs. Clinton was accompanied by a skeleton crew of aides and a diminished press corps Wednesday as she continued to tour some of the remotest parts of America. After a tourist stop at Mount Rushmore, she drove nearly three hours across the desolate Badlands to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and made her electability argument to a somewhat bewildered crowd of about 250 people outside the Little Wound School.

"I believe the electoral votes that I will win make a very strong argument," she said. "Look at the states I won and will win. These are the states that form the base of a Democratic victory."

But there was also an elegiac tone to some of her remarks.

"I view my run for president as a solemn obligation," she said. "I don't run for president because I need any more publicity. I don't run for president because I need the adulation or the celebrity. I don't run for president to live in the White House. That was a wonderful experience, but that's not why I run. I run because I believe we can do so much better for our country. The unkept promises are corrosive."

WASHINGTON - The three senators who would be president have agreed to a rare joint statement accusing the Sudanese government of atrocities against civilians in Darfur and warning it not to try to run out the clock on the Bush administration, which has called the killings in Darfur genocide.

"Today, we wish to make clear to the Sudanese government that on this moral issue of tremendous importance, there is no divide between us," declared a joint statement to be released on Wednesday by the Save Darfur Coalition on behalf of Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton, John McCain and Barack Obama. "If peace and security for the people of Sudan are not in place when one of us is inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, 2009, we pledge that the next administration will pursue these goals with unstinting resolve."

The statement is largely symbolic because the three are not proposing any specific Congressional action against Sudan. Nor are they calling for tangible steps by the United States to put pressure on the Sudanese government. For instance, the statement is silent about whether the Bush administration should use its turn as president of the United Nations Security Council in June to seek further ways to press Sudan.

But the statement is meant to send a message to the government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan that the next American president will continue to sound an alarm on Darfur. Under the Bush administration, the United States has sought to harness international pressure, particularly at the United Nations, to get Sudan to accept a contingent of international peacekeeping forces in Darfur.

The administration has also entered into talks with Sudan and is holding out the prospect of normalizing its diplomatic ties with the United States and removing it from a list of state supporters of terrorism if Sudan agrees to allow Thai and Nepalese peacekeepers into Darfur.

At least 200,000 people have been killed there since the Arab-dominated government of Sudan unleashed tribal militias known as the janjaweed on non-Arab rebel groups and civilians. The Sudanese government says that the death toll in Darfur has been exaggerated and denies that the killing there amounts to genocide, as President Bush has said.

The president of the Save Darfur Coalition, Jerry Fowler, said the joint statement from the presidential candidates should serve as a warning to Mr. Bashir's government. "The tangible piece will be on Jan. 20, 2009," Mr. Fowler said, "when whichever one of these candidates wins the presidency and makes Darfur a Day 1 issue."

MOUNT RUSHMORE, S.D. (AP) - Hillary Rodham Clinton, her future far from carved in stone, paid a visit to the famed Mount Rushmore monument Wednesday.

Campaigning in South Dakota before the state's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, Clinton bundled up against chilly temperatures to walk through the monument and listen as a national park ranger described the history of the mountainside chiseled with the visages of Presidents George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.

Trailing rival Barack Obama among delegates with just three primaries left in the calendar, Clinton has little chance of securing the nomination. Perhaps mindful of the odds, the former first lady carefully avoided questions about whether she or former President Clinton might be added to the monument one day.

"Why don't you go learn something about the monument?" she told reporters, laughing.

By Beth Fouhy, The Associated Press, May 28, 2008

The Democratic National Committee acted with "proper authority and jurisdiction" earlier this year when it stripped Michigan and Florida of all of their presidential convention delegates as punishment for scheduling their primaries before party rules allowed, a DNC staff analysis has concluded.

A 17-page memo outlining the findings was sent last night to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, who on Saturday will consider the two states' appeals of the sanctions. The finding repudiates at least one of the states' claims - that the committee overstepped its authority. And the report contains possible compromises that would seat only half the states' delegations. Hillary Clinton, in her last-ditch effort to remain a viable contender, has been fighting to have all of the states' delegates recognized.

In the analysis, staffers examined two compromise scenarios: One would allow the states to seat half of their delegates at the convention; the other would allow all delegates to be seated, but each would get a half vote. A statement released this afternoon by the DNC says the "staff analysis is intentionally neutral; it does not make specific recommendations. The analysis lays out a rules framework for each challenge, and the issues raised with each challenge."

But it is how those delegates could be divvied up between Clinton and Barack Obama that will have all eyes on the committee on Saturday.

Clinton and Obama pledged to boycott Michigan and Florida after the states were sanctioned for jumping the primary-season gun. Clinton won in Michigan, where her name appeared on the ballot but Obama's did not; and she also took Florida, where both candidates were on the ballot but neither campaigned. With no delegates at stake, those primaries were considered beauty contests.

But Clinton, though she endorsed the DNC sanctions at the time, now is agitating to have those delegates seated. Clinton has gone so far in recent days to liken the standoff to historic voting rights battles. Obama and his supporters don't want his primary success undermined by a committee decision that punishes him for accepting the DNC rules that existed at the time of the primaries.

In the memo to committee members, staffers, anticipating various efforts at compromise, delved into usually arcane delegate seating rules. In Michigan, for example, 40 percent of Democratic primary voters marked their ballots for "Uncommitted." What to do with those delegates? One consideration included in the staff analysis: Grant all of the Democrats who withdrew their names from the Michigan ballot, and that includes Obama, the right to pick delegates for the uncommitted slots.

"It is possible that these candidates," the analysis says, "could work out among themselves the mechanics of approving the persons to be considered for the 'Uncommitted' pledged delegate positions."

Florida is asking the committee to reinstate all of its superdelegates and has claimed that the committee did not have the authority to go beyond party rules that say states should automatically be stripped of half their delegates if they defy the party's primary schedule. The state wants 50 percent of its pledged delegation restored and allocated according to the state's January 29 primary results.

Committee members have said they expect to reach a compromise. But nobody is expecting everybody to be happy with the result.

By Liz Halloran, U.S. News & World Report, May 28, 2008

On Saturday, when the Rules Committee of the Democratic National Committee meets to determine the fate of Florida and Michigan's delegations to this summer's convention, it will have some company. A group of Hillary Clinton supporters has announced it will demonstrate outside.

As has been frequently noted, Sen. Ted Kennedy's much-publicized endorsement of Barack Obama paid little or no direct dividend a few days later in the Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary; Hillary Clinton easily carried the state on Super Tuesday back in February. One advantage she enjoyed -- mostly overlooked in the hoopla over Kennedy's nod -- was backing from longtime Boston Mayor Thomas Menino.

What Menino lacked as a national political figure he more than made up for by galvanizing a well-oiled political machine on Clinton's behalf, much as Govs. Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania did on her behalf in primaries that followed.

An analysis by Lydia Saad at Gallup of Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks seems to re-affirm Sen. Hillary Clinton's argument that she is likelier to beat Sen. John McCain than is Sen. Barack Obama.

"Clinton is currently running ahead of McCain in the 20 states where she has prevailed in the popular vote," Saad writes, "while Obama is tied with McCain in those same states. Thus, at this stage in the race (before the general-election campaigns have fully engaged), there is some support for her argument that her primary states indicate she would be stronger than Obama in the general election.

"The same cannot be said for Obama in the 28 states and D.C. where he prevailed in the popular vote. As of now, in those states, he is performing no better than Clinton is in general-election trial heats versus McCain. Thus, the principle of greater primary strength translating into greater general-election strength -- while apparently operative for the states Clinton has won -- does not seem to apply at the moment to states Obama has won."

Are the Democrats about to nominate their weaker candidate? What say you?

By Jake Tapper, ABC News, May 28, 2008

Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign is edging closer to overtly making the argument that she -- and she alone -- can beat John McCain in the fall election.

"There is a difference between someone who could win and someone who will win," said Clinton senior strategist Howard Wolfson on a conference call with reporters earlier today. "That is an argument superdelegates can understand."

Clinton made a similar argument in a letter to superdelegates and reporters today. She writes:

"We simply cannot afford another four -- or eight -- years in the wilderness. That is why, everywhere I go, people come up to me, grip my hand or arm, and urge me to keep on running. That is why I continue in this race: because I believe I am best prepared to lead this country as President - and best prepared to put together a broad coalition of voters to break the lock Republicans have had on the electoral map and beat Senator McCain in November."

Wolfson pointed out that current Electoral College vote predictions -- based on an aggregate of public polling -- show Clinton beating McCain and Barack Obama losing to the Arizona senator.

Wolfson repeatedly noted that he was not saying that Obama could not win a general election, simply that polls show that he is currently trailing McCain.

That distinction is crucial to Clinton as she spends the final weeks of the campaign seemingly preparing for what comes next in her political life. (For the record, the Clinton team continues to insist she can still win; "We clearly believe there remains a path to the nomination and Senator Clinton is pursuing that path," said Wolfson.)

Any suggestion that Obama is unelectable by Clinton is likely to rebound negatively on her, as many party activists already suspect -- with little actual evidence, to be fair to the New York senator -- that she will seek to undercut the Democratic ticket in the fall if she is not on it.

But even if you take Clinton's argument at face value, there appears to be little evidence in the recent primaries that voters are primarily focused on electability as they choose between Obama and Clinton.

In Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, just nine percent of voters said that a candidate's ability to win in November was the most important factor in deciding their vote; among that small group, Clinton won 57 percent of the vote to 43 percent for Obama.

Subsequent primaries showed similar results. In West Virginia, nine percent cited electability as the most important attribute, and Clinton won the group by a wide 75 percent to 19 percent margin. In Kentucky, eight percent named electability; in Oregon it was 13 percent.

It is possible, of course, that superdelegates' mindset is radically different than that of voters. Remember, however, that many of the undecided superdelegates are elected officials and are not generally in the business of going against public opinion.

Clinton's case is a tough one to make -- and has been since mid-February. But she seems committed to making it.

By Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post, May 28, 2008

While Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama went back and forth about Iraq, Sen. Hillary Clinton largely avoided both of her opponents and traveled to Pablo, Mont., to "reaffirm her support for tribal sovereignty and her respect for the government to government relationship between the tribes of Montana and the federal government," according to a release provided by the campaign. Clinton's first campaign event of the day began at 6:30 p.m. ET in a picturesque setting admid trees and mountains

"We need a president next January, the obligation the United States government has to the tribes that represent the first peoples of the United States," Clinton said. "This is an issue that has been very important for me for years now."

After outlining what she wants to do for tribal leaders Clinton delivered her traditional stump speech with mild attacks against Obama about universal health care and the energy bill she didn't vote for, one she likes to call "Dick Cheney's" energy bill.

Clinton included a line she said in Rhode Island that inspired much attention.

"I am not one of those who comes to you and says elect me and the world will be better -- you'll hear celestial choirs life will improve -- I've lived long enough to know that's not what brings about change," she said. "What brings about change is hard work. Taking on the tough fights. Standing up for what you believe. And enlisting as many people as possible to do that for themselves."

Clinton also said that she thinks acupuncture should be included in the health care plan she will provide.

"I believe there are many treatments and remedies should be included in the universal health care plan and you mentioned one of them -- acupuncture," she said.

Clinton also revealed her Secret Service name, something she has never done before. Inspired by a sculpture before her in the very picturesque setting, Clinton said, "When you're president the Secret Service gives you and your family members code names and it's already been made public so I'm not spilling some big secret here, but my husband's code name was Eagle and my code name was Evergreen so I'm surrounded by my totems here."

By Eloise Harper, ABC News, May 27, 2008

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Hillary Clinton launched a new bid to wrest the Democratic nomination from front-runner Barack Obama Wednesday, arguing as their duel raced to a climax that she was the rightful victor and best potential president.

Clinton wrote to nearly 800 top party officials, or superdelegates, to try to persuade them that she was more likely to beat Republican candidate John McCain in November's election.

Her offensive came ahead of three closing primaries within the next six days, and despite Obama's lead in key metrics of the race -- proportionally allocated delegates, superdelegates, and nominating contests won.

"I believe I am best prepared to lead this country as president, and best prepared to put together a broad coalition of voters to break the lock Republicans have had on the electoral map and beat Senator McCain in November," Clinton wrote.

An accompanying 11-page memo laid out the case for Clinton, supported by maps of electoral scenarios and analyses of voter groups she has captured including women, working-class voters and Latinos.

"Hillary Clinton will finish the primary season with more votes, the lead in public opinion polls as to who is best able to turn the economy around, and be an effective commander in chief," the memo said.

Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe however said a simple tally of votes was immaterial.

"We do not think the popular vote is a true metric of the race -- it is about delegates," Plouffe said.

The new Clinton push came days ahead of Saturday's key meeting of a high-level Democratic Party committee to discuss a row over primaries in Michigan and Florida, which had their delegates stripped over a scheduling dispute.

The former first lady wants the full slate of delegates in the two states to be restored, so that she can argue that she has won most votes countrywide.

Other reported scenarios would see the two states losing at least half their delegations to punish them from moving their primary contests forward into January.

The Obama campaign said it was prepared to compromise, in a move that would likely net Clinton some delegates, but would allow Obama to claim the nomination and focus on McCain.

"We are willing to compromise, and I think that is where the party is," Plouffe told reporters.

"In both of these states, there is both a need and a hunger to focus on November."

Clinton won the primary in Michigan, where Obama took his name off the ballot, and also came first in Florida, where neither candidate campaigned.

According to a count by independent website RealClearPolitics, Obama is now just 48 delegates short of the winning post of 2,026 delegates needed to capture the nomination.

But the Clinton campaign says the true winning post is 2,210 delegates, including all those from Florida and Michigan.

Obama has recently been picking up superdelegate endorsements much quicker than Clinton, and now leads in that category by 319 to 282.

Fresh intrigue in the Democratic endgame came as explosive new revelations about President George W. Bush and Iraq exposed McCain to fresh scrutiny on the war.

Excerpts from a score-settling memoir by former White House press secretary Scott McClellan offered an opening to Obama, who opposed the war from the start.

McClellan wrote that the president was not "open and forthright" on Iraq and relied on propaganda to sell an unnecessary war.

The flap broke at an inopportune moment for McCain, just as he was enlisting the president's help in a series of fundraisers Tuesday and Wednesday.

McCain backs Bush's troop "surge" strategy in Iraq, and accuses Democrats of wanting to surrender there.

McCain policy advisor Nancy Pfotenhauer pointed out that the Arizona senator had challenged Bush and top military brass over early war strategy, and attacked the pace-setting Democrat.

"Obama's judgment has been shockingly ill-informed and he looks to be absolutely set on keeping it ill-informed," she told MSNBC.

But Obama strategist David Axelrod said McCain was unwilling to face the "reality" of the situation in Iraq.

"It's not the troops who are responsible for this disaster," Axelrod told MSNBC.

"It's the policymakers, and we have to change the policy."

AFP, May 28, 2008

The nearly 800 Democratic superdelegates are free to support any candidate and are free to change their mind at any time, as many times as they want.

In the ABC News delegate estimate, about a dozen unpledged "superdelegates" have switched their support from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama, but until tonight none had switched from Obama to Clinton.

Kevin Rodriquez, a superdelegate from the Virgin Islands, was supporting Clinton earlier this year, then switched to Obama and, according to the Clinton campaign tonight, is now back in the New York senator's corner.

The Clinton campaign announced in a press release that Rodriquez was backing Hillary Clinton but did not provide a statement from Rodriquez.

On May 10, Rodriquez, an African-American Democratic committeeman and the director of personnel for the Virgin Islands government, announced that he was switching his support from Clinton to Obama, citing the Illinois senator's judgment, courage and energy.

"While I have great respect for Senator Clinton, today I am announcing my support for Barack Obama," Rodriquez said in a statement released by the Obama campaign on May 10. "Senator Obama has brought a new generation and energy into the democratic process and the Democratic Party. He has shown he can connect with Democrats, Republicans and Independents across this country, whether we live on the mainland or an island.

"Senator Obama's judgment to lead, courage to tell the truth and commitment to working men and women make him the best candidate to lead this country forward."

Just three months earlier, Rodriquez was in Clinton's corner.

Obama went on a 10-contest winning streak in February, including the Virgin Islands caucuses on Feb. 9. On Feb. 18, Rodriquez told The St. Croix Source that he was supporting Clinton because "she's a better candidate."

"I'm very proud of Barack Obama. I think he's doing a great job," Rodriquez said. "I'm honored as an African-American to have him in the position he is in, but I feel Hillary is still the better candidate to lead the party to victory in November."

By Karen Travers, ABC News, May 27, 2008

Sen. Hillary Clinton's Memorial Day service came at the end of the day today. Clinton stood at an official ceremony outside the capitol building in San Juan, Puerto Rico. By her side stood her daughter Chelsea and her husband the former president. Clinton's entire message was focused on the need to give Puerto Ricans the right to vote, especially in light of the service they provide and have provided to our country.

"It is a day to cherish freedoms and opportunities that so many have sacrificed fought for and died to defend," she said. "As we are gathered here in front of this magnificent capitol building, we look at this memorial monument, every single name reminds us of the sacrifices that have been made by the brave men and women of Puerto Rico."

Clinton defended the people of this island and their justification of having a right to vote.

"To anyone who would suggest that the people of Puerto Rico do not deserve equal treatment, equal benefits, equal opportunities because of their position as United States citizens, I say come see this monument, read the names on this monument," she said.. "These are the names of fathers and mothers, sons and daughters, husbands and wives, brothers and sisters who have given, as President Lincoln described, the last full measure of devotion.

"Puerto Rico deserves to have its sacrifice noted," she said. "You deserve to have leadership in Washington that respects and honors this sacrifice and all who serve. The real test is not what we say but what we do. The real challenge is how we can not just make speeches that contain promise, but deliver on those promises. It is for me a sacred obligation.

"I believe it is long past time that we give the people of Puerto Rico, United States citizens all, an equal voice in the vote for the commander in chief who sends young Puerto Ricans to war," the New York senator said.

The tone and demeanor of this event was much more serious and somber than that of events Clinton held earlier in the day in Ponce, P.R., where she was greeted by a loud band that shouted "Hillary! Hillary!" over and over. At that same event, Clinton uttered a little Spanish, saying, "si podemos!" a thing she rarely does. The senator also met with two families who she listened to and laughed with as they shared stories.

By Eloise Harper, ABC News, May 26, 2008

WASHINGTON - When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton told The Argus Leader of Sioux Falls, S.D., last week that efforts to "push" her out of the race before all the nominating contests were over was "unprecedented," she offered a few historical references to support her argument.

The news media's attention focused on Mrs. Clinton's invocation of the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy after the California primary in June 1968. But she also cited the 1992 contest that ended with Bill Clinton's nomination.

"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary," Mrs. Clinton told the paper's editorial board, "somewhere in the middle of June."

But for weeks before that June 2 contest, few doubted that Mr. Clinton would be the party's nominee, including those involved with the campaign of his remaining challenger, former Gov. Jerry Brown of California.

"Even if it wasn't technically finished, it was clear to everybody involved that it was over well before June," Steve McMahon, a media strategist for Mr. Brown in the 1992 race, said Monday in an interview.

The contest between Mrs. Clinton, of New York, and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is hardly as clear cut. While he appears to have an unsurpassable lead in pledged delegates, she is hoping to draw the support of elected Democratic officials and party leaders - superdelegates - who will also help choose the party's nominee.

She continues to win primaries in populous states like Indiana and Pennsylvania and hopes to add up enough of the overall popular vote to make a case to superdelegates that she is better positioned to be the nominee.

Howard Wolfson, a strategist for Mrs. Clinton, also pointed out on Monday that some had called for her to leave the race early in the process.

"Senator Obama's supporters in the media began calling on Senator Clinton to drop out as early as February," Mr. Wolfson said. "This is one of the closest nominating contests in American history, and the constant calls for Senator Clinton to quit are unwarranted and inappropriate."

Yet the Clinton campaign in 1992 used some of the same tactics that Mrs. Clinton and her supporters now decry, like declaring the nomination secure early and encouraging party leaders and the news media to climb on board.

In the weeks before the California primary that year, much of the attention was already focused on the general election, with Mr. Clinton treated as the presumed Democratic nominee challenging President George Bush. Sights were set on November, with speculation about how Ross Perot, a well-financed independent candidate, would affect the prospects of the two men.

Recalling the race on The Huffington Post over the weekend, William Bradley, a California political strategist-turned-writer, said he had personally delivered a message to the Clinton campaign before the California primary that Mr. Brown "would run no TV ads in the California primary and would pull back from the sharp attacks," in recognition of Mr. Clinton's strength.

In fact, the race had for all intents and purposes ended weeks earlier, on April 7 in New York, when Mr. Brown made something of a last stand. It was ultimately a bust: He came in third, behind Mr. Clinton and the second-place finisher, Senator Paul E. Tsongas of Massachusetts, who had suspended his campaign weeks earlier.

That night, George Stephanopoulos, who was then a top aide to Mr. Clinton, declared that it was "mathematically impossible for Brown to get the nomination" - the start of a campaign to declare Mr. Clinton the presumed nominee, even as several other major primaries loomed.

"So, lightning would have to strike," Mr. Stephanopoulos, now with ABC News, said at the time, a phrase he repeated last week to describe Mrs. Clinton's chances against Mr. Obama.

Mr. Clinton soon made a victorious visit to Capitol Hill, where he began trying to rally to his side the party leaders with automatic convention seats known as superdelegates.

And party members reported an effort by Clinton allies and ranking party officials to pressure uncommitted superdelegates to line up behind Mr. Clinton, a strategy he decried this past weekend when he accused "them" of bullying superdelegates early to choose sides between Mr. Obama and his wife.

"There's this frantic effort to push her out," he said, adding, "I've never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running."

In 1992 Mr. Clinton's strategy drew some support for his candidacy, including former Representative Don Edwards of California, who said on the day of Mr. Clinton's Capitol Hill visit, "He's going to be the nominee, so good Democrats are getting on board."

The message was also shared with the news media, with Ronald H. Brown, the party chairman and Mr. Clinton's close friend, telling The New York Times that April, "I cannot imagine a set of circumstances that would keep Bill Clinton from having a majority of the delegates by the end of the primary season."

Mr. Clinton was also discussing his vice-presidential considerations, telling a student that April that "a lot of presidents have got in trouble in past years because they picked too many people who were just like them."

In one way, though, Mr. Clinton's clinching of his party's nomination was later in the primary calendar than will probably occur in 2008. The Democratic convention that year was in July, a month after the contests ended; this year it is not until the last week of August, almost three months after the last states vote.

Clinton In Puerto Rico, Where She Is Favored To Win; Obama Tells Vets In N.M. "I Will Not Let You Down"

Sen. Hillary Clinton ended a three-day campaign swing across Puerto Rico the same way many Americans mark Memorial Day - with family, friends and a salute to the sacrifices of military men and women.

Clinton, who is trying despite the odds against her to catch up to Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, visited with Laura Santiago Suarez and Carlos Rivera Figueroa. Residents of a public housing project in Bayamon, the couple talked about their 21-year-old son, Jonathan, a soldier awaiting redeployment for another tour in Iraq.

Sitting in the living room of their apartment, Clinton said that once she is president she will end the war so "you will not have to worry about him going back to Iraq." She also talked about the high cost of electricity and gas in Puerto Rico, and said she wanted to see the island use solar and wind energy.

Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Clinton, also reunited with a family that received federal aid after Hurricane Georges in 1998. As first lady, Hillary Clinton had visited them to see how the storm affected Puerto Ricans.

It is the Clintons' long history with Puerto Rico - and Hispanic voters in general - that gives Clinton a decided edge in the island's presidential primary on June 1, not to mention that her home state of New York has approximately 1 million Puerto Ricans.

But Clinton needs something approaching a mathematical miracle to catch Obama in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. Puerto Rico has 55 delegates at stake in its primary, but Obama had a total of 1,969 to Clinton's 1,774, according to the latest CBS News tally. He was just 57 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination.

"Hillary Clinton has a slight, a very slight chance to win, but almost negligible at this point," said David Mark, senior editor of Politico.com.

It's practically zip because under no circumstances do the numbers add up in her favor, reports CBS News correspondent Thalia Assuras. So the Clinton campaign is appealing to superdelegates who don't vote until the convention.

As Clinton wrapped up her Puerto Rican swing, Obama marked Memorial Day in New Mexico, a battleground state in the general election.

Obama told a group of veterans that he cannot know what it's like to walk into battle or lose a child in combat, since he has experienced neither, but he said he is committed to strengthening the military and improving veterans' services.

"As president of the United States, I will not let you down," he promised.

Obama said President Bush is asking the troops to do too much with too little, such as interacting with civilians without the necessary translators and handling nation-building tasks that could be done by the State Department and other agencies.

"We're asking them to be teachers, social workers, engineers, diplomats. That's not what they're trained to do," the Illinois senator said during a town hall-style meeting at the Farm & Ranch Heritage Museum in Las Cruces.

Heavy use of private contractors, such as Blackwater, also hurts troops, Obama said. Contractors are paid many times what U.S. personnel make, but they aren't subject to the same rules and their misconduct inflames anti-American sentiment, he said. And when troops return home, the Bush administration doesn't do enough to help those suffering from combat stress or to help them get civilian jobs, Obama said.

After his town hall event, Obama and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson laid wreaths at a memorial to the state's fallen soldiers. The wind knocked over the wreaths, scattering the flowers, and Obama and Richardson propped the wreaths against the monument and gathered the stray flowers.

They shook hands with onlookers, including a color guard of veterans, and Obama thanked them for their service.

In Puerto Rico, Clinton also spoke at a rally of union members from AFSCME, the American Federation of Teachers and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.

"Puerto Rico should support Hillary because she understands you better," Bill Clinton told the crowd. The former president and the couple's daughter, Chelsea, will remain in Puerto Rico while Hillary Clinton heads to South Dakota and Montana, which hold the final primaries a week from Tuesday.

She ended her trip in San Juan at a ceremony to add names to a dark marble monument for Puerto Ricans who died fighting in the U.S. military.

The memorial, she told the crowd, shows why Puerto Ricans should be allowed a greater voice in the U.S. government. Puerto Ricans cannot vote in the general election for president.

"That is an injustice and an insult to the thousands and thousands of Puerto Ricans who have served America with heroism and honor," Clinton said.

Not all Puerto Ricans were happy with Clinton's visit.

Jorge Pedroza, president of the Council of Vietnam Veterans of Puerto Rico, said he was upset that she waited until the third day of her campaign swing to meet with veterans. He noted that Obama's first stop during his appearance Saturday was to visit with veterans.

"If she's here honoring the dead, what about the living?" Pedroza said.




The Associated Press, May 26, 2008

The end of both Clintonism and its opposite -- Kennedy-style liberalism -- draws closer.

The sun-dappled image from August 1997 shimmers in memory. The two great Democratic political dynasties had set sail on carefree waters. Aboard the Mya as the schooner maneuvered its way out of Menemsha Harbor on Martha's Vineyard were the reigning Clintons and the radiant Kennedys. The news photographs, which mesh with my memory, show the president and the ruddy white-haired Massachusetts senator, along with a waving Hillary Clinton and the extended Kennedy clan, including Rep. Patrick Kennedy and daughter-of-Camelot Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg.

Last week, 11 years after that in-happier-times snapshot, the curtain began to descend on the Kennedys and Clintons alike. Before the wrenching news of a brain tumor, there had always seemed something eternal about Ted Kennedy: the survivor, the eternal-flame keeper of the dream that never died, the last active link to the heady days of can-do 1960s liberalism.

Each day brings Hillary Clinton closer to publicly acknowledging that her own presidential ambitions are over or, at least, redeposited in a safe-deposit box with a long lease. Certainly, her maladroit comment last week about Bobby Kennedy's assassination -- even if it was wrenched out of context in a take-no-prisoners media environment -- may well have been her presidential swan song. At the same time, her husband, the baffled 42nd president, is struggling with his new role as "Over-the-Hill Bill." In an interview with People magazine, Bill Clinton admitted that he can no longer be trusted to speak "late at night" when he is "tired or angry" without issuing himself "Miranda warnings."

The Clintons and the Kennedys were on separate trajectories long before Teddy and most of his family blessed the presidential ambitions of Barack Obama. Like comets with elongated orbits, the two families would periodically intersect (a teenage Boys State president from Arkansas shaking JFK's hand at the White House) and forge fruitful political alliances as they did during the 1990s. But even though they could dominate rooms and domesticate political enemies, the 76-year-old patriarch of the Senate and the 61-year-old former president are, at their core, as different as Hyannisport, Mass., and Hope, Ark.

Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton (more than Hillary) represent the two ends of the Democratic practical-politics spectrum. When Kennedy, unbowed in defeat, spoke to the 1980 Democratic Convention, he boldly declared, "I will continue to stand for a national health insurance ... Let us resolve that the state of a family's health shall never depend on the size of the nation's wealth." At the height of his greatest triumph, his smashing 1996 reelection victory over Bob Dole by 8 million votes, Bill Clinton devoted exactly two words to "health care" in his second inaugural address. With Newt Gingrich neutered and Monica Lewinsky still unknown, Clinton instead opted for poll-tested banalities like prattling about "personal responsibility" and proclaiming, "Government is not the problem and government is not the solution."

Actually, the leader most responsible for reshaping Democratic politics after Vietnam may well have been Ronald Reagan. Clinton's entire presidency can be seen as an effort to take off the table most of the issues that Reagan used as cudgels against the Democrats -- welfare, crime, permissiveness, budget deficits and big government. Once the healthcare reform debacle and the 1994 elections prompted Clinton to stop thinking about tomorrow and start brooding about yesterday, his cautious centrist approach to governing was mostly about building a bridge to the next election. Hillary Clinton (aside from her poll-propelled pander on the gasoline tax) has pointedly rejected triangulation on domestic issues during this campaign, more than matching Obama on any liberal policy grid.

During the Reagan years, Kennedy -- out of necessity -- mastered the art of bipartisan compromise. His olive-branch legislative style led to missteps like his credulous support for George W. Bush's all-the-funding-left-behind 2001 education bill. But Kennedy also deserves credit for his role in the 2004 passage of the prescription-drug bill -- the biggest (and, to be honest, as yet unfunded) expansion of the social safety net since Medicare.

It was in response to Reagan's mantra that "the Democrats are weak on national security" where Kennedy parted company with the Clintons (yes, here we are definitely including Hillary). Maybe having experienced the hair-trigger moments of his brother's nuclear confrontation with Nikita Khrushchev over missiles in Cuba gave Kennedy the self-confidence to challenge the Bush family's portrayal of Saddam Hussein as Adolf Hitler Redux. About the only argument that can be mustered in defense of Hillary Clinton's 2002 vote (presumably influenced by Bill's counsel) to permit the war in Iraq is that the entire feckless wing of the Democratic Party joined in this march of folly toward Baghdad.

For more than three decades, Ted Kennedy has been a living refutation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's maxim about "no second acts in American life." Ridiculed as the president's dim-bulb youngest brother when he was handed a gift-wrapped Senate seat for his 30th birthday in 1962, and then reviled for his conduct on a tragic night at Chappaquiddick, Kennedy took an idiosyncratic path to becoming a senator worthy of a Capitol Hill legislative office building someday being named in his honor.

Hillary Clinton will probably not take her defiance-of-reality fight all the way to the Democratic Convention, as Kennedy did in his scorched-earth struggle against Jimmy Carter in 1980. But she will soon face a similar second-act career dilemma. Will the next four or eight years merely be a holding action as she plots a final assault on the White House? Will she stalk a would-be President Obama much as Kennedy shadowed Carter? Or will she follow Kennedy's later and wiser example by deciding that her ambitions can be sated by waging the good fight in the Senate -- a body where the current majority leader, Harry Reid, is not exactly the stuff of Statuary Hall.

Last week, quickly denied rumors bubbled up from the underground springs of premature vice-presidential gossip claiming that the Obama and Clinton camps were in talks over the heartbeat-away job. In truth, since John Kennedy tapped Lyndon Johnson at the 1960 Democratic Convention, only two vice-presidential selections (George Bush in 1980 and John Edwards in 2004) have been the runners-up for the presidential nomination. An Obama-Clinton ticket certainly still could be engineered, but the loyalty oaths needed to ratify such an alliance would be more rigorous than those required by the House Un-American Activities Committee.

But beyond uneasy personal relationships, Obama may regard the Clintons as a historical artifact of the 1990s. True, Obama has managed to survive primaries and caucuses in 48 states without ever revealing how much of his political philosophy is Clintonian moderation and how much is Kennedy-esque liberalism. When it comes to middle-class tax cuts and a no-mandates healthcare plan, Obama cleaves to safe centrism. On Iraq and other foreign policy issues, Obama is bolder and more inspirational. But maybe the real Obama difference is that -- unlike Ted Kennedy and both the Clintons -- the 46-year-old all but certain nominee is the first true post-Reagan Democrat.

By Walter Shapiro, Salon, May 27, 2008

If this campaign goes on much longer, what will be left of Hillary Clinton?

My first thought on the running mate question is that to balance his ticket, Barack Obama should pick a really old white general. Therefore, he should pick Dwight Eisenhower. John McCain, on the other hand, needs to pick someone younger than himself. Therefore, he also should pick Dwight Eisenhower.

My second thought is that most of the commentary on vice president picks is completely backward. Most discussion focuses on what state or constituency this or that running mate could help carry in the fall. But, as a rule, recent vice presidential nominees haven't had any effect on key states or constituencies. They haven't had much effect on elections at all, except occasionally as hapless distractions.

A vice president can, however, have a gigantic impact on an administration once in office (see: Cheney, Richard). Therefore, a sensible presidential candidate shouldn't be selecting a mate on the basis of who can help him get elected. He should be thinking about who can help him govern successfully so he can get re-elected.

That means asking: What circumstances will I face when I take office? What tasks will I need my chief subordinate to perform to help me face those circumstances?

If Barack Obama is elected, his chief challenge will be that he hopes to usher in a new style of politics, but he has no real strategy for how to do that.

He will find himself surrounded by highly partisan Democratic politicians, committee chairmen and interest groups thrilled to finally seize power. Some of them might have enjoyed his lofty rhetoric about change, but in practice, these organization types have no interest in changing politics. They just want to take the money and patronage that has been going to Republican special interests and give it to Democratic special interests.

These entrenched Democrats are more experienced than Obama. They know how to play the game better. The effect of their efforts will be to turn his into a Potemkin administration filled with great speeches but without great accomplishments or influence over legislation.

Obama will need a vice president who knows the millions of ways that power is exercised and subverted in Washington. He'll need someone who can be a senior, authoritative presence in a cabinet that may range from Republican Senator Chuck Hagel to the labor leader Andy Stern. He'll need someone who can supervise his young reformers and build transpartisan coalitions more effectively than Obama has as senator.

Sam Nunn and Tom Daschle seem to fit the bill. Nunn is one of those senior Democrats (like David Boren and Bob Kerrey) who left the Senate lamenting the dumbed-down nature of modern politics. Daschle was more partisan as majority leader, but he is still widely trusted and universally liked. As experienced legislators, both could take Obama's lofty hopes and translate them into nitty-gritty action.

If John McCain is elected, he'll face a political culture threatening to split at the seams. In defeat, Democrats will be enraged at everything and everybody. The Republican Party will still be exhausted and divided. McCain will find it hard to staff the administration since so many Republican advisers were exhausted over the previous eight years.

Amid these centrifugal forces, McCain will need somebody who radiates calm. He'll need somebody who can provide structure and organization. He'll need somebody who enjoys working with budgets.

With the Democrats controlling Congress, McCain will have no chance of winning big, ideological fights. He will need someone who can help him de-ideologize the climate, who can emphasize making things work rather than fighting philosophical battles.

McCain seems to be looking at business leaders like Meg Whitman. But among politicos, the shining stars would seem to be Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty. Portman is an Ohioan with the mind of a budget director and a mild temperament that is a credit to his Midwestern roots. His resume is ideal: He directed legislative affairs for the first President Bush, served in Congress for more than a decade and managed the Office of Management and Budget under Bush the younger. He excelled in every role.

Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, is one of the G.O.P.'s leading and most likable modernizers. The son of a truck driver (his mother died when he was 16), he is the godfather of Sam's Club conservatism, the effort to reconnect the party to the needs of the working class. Pawlenty could help McCain play the Theodore Roosevelt-style role - reforming the nation's institutions to fit a new century and epoch.

Both presidential candidates are surrounded by campaign advisers, campaign coverage and campaign frenzy. But the vice presidential pick is not really a campaign decision. It's the first governing decision - and a way to see who is thinking seriously about how to succeed in the White House.

By David Brooks, The New York Times, May 27, 2008

In August 1980, with no hope left of winning the nomination, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy conceded defeat to incumbent Jimmy Carter in the Democratic presidential race.

"For me, a few hours ago, this campaign came to an end," Kennedy said at the Democratic National Convention in New York. "For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."

And with that, at age 48, Kennedy returned to the Senate, where he committed himself to a career as a legislator, crafting landmark bills on health care, education and immigration. Many Democrats are now pointing to the Kennedy model as a path for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to reshape her own political career, assuming she is unable to wrest the nomination from Sen. Barack Obama.

"I loved the Senate before I ran for the president," Kennedy explained in an interview before his recent cancer diagnosis. Losing to Carter, he said, made him appreciate the opportunities in Congress all the more. "I think I became a better senator, with greater focus and attention," Kennedy said. But he added: "It all depends on the attitude, what's in the mind of the person."

Clinton, Kennedy continued, must decide where her heart lies. "She's got great capacity -- she was a good senator before, and she can be a great senator in the future," he said. The question, he said, is "what she does with this experience."

When Kennedy returned to Capitol Hill before the 1980 election, the Massachusetts Democrat was in a similar fix. Like Clinton, he was the heir to a powerful political legacy. But the climate was volatile, and voters were in the mood for change. Kennedy was rejected by many of his Senate colleagues, despite Carter's sagging popularity, and he won just 10 primary states. But like Clinton, he hung on until the bitter end.

Yet Kennedy was an 18-year Senate veteran who had already risen to chairman of the Judiciary Committee and a health subcommittee. Clinton faces few options for quick advancement should she give up her presidential bid, prompting some to speculate that she may look elsewhere for a prominent political post, possibly the governorship of New York.

The climate on Capitol Hill has changed considerably in the 18 months since Clinton began her presidential campaign. The Senate leadership path that she had once viewed as a viable alternative is now all but blocked. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) has gained clout in his role, and he will grow even more powerful if Democrats succeed in expanding their narrow majority in November by up to half a dozen seats.

Reid's deputies, Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin (Ill.) and Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), also have enhanced their status in recent months and are quietly laying the groundwork to succeed Reid whenever he decides to step down.

"Within the caucus, there's strong support for Senator Reid, and those who speculate otherwise don't understand the Senate," said Durbin, who was the first senator to endorse Obama. When Clinton returns to her old job, assuming she does not win the nomination, Durbin added, "she will be an important part of the future. But I can't tell you that anyone has approached me, or anyone in the caucus, with any specific suggestions about what she would do."

When Clinton announced her bid in January 2007, she was the prohibitive favorite, and most of her Senate colleagues appeared ready to rally to her side. But as her primary battle with Obama draws to an end, with the senator from Illinois almost certain to emerge the victor, Clinton has discovered that the reservoir of Senate goodwill was not so deep after all.

(CNN) -- Former President Bill Clinton said that Democrats were more likely to lose in November if Hillary Clinton is not the nominee, and suggested some were trying to "push and pressure and bully" superdelegates to make up their minds prematurely.

"I can't believe it. It is just frantic the way they are trying to push and pressure and bully all these superdelegates to come out," Clinton said at a South Dakota campaign stop Sunday, in remarks first reported by ABC News.

Clinton also suggested some were trying to "cover up" Sen. Clinton's chances of winning in key states that Democrats will have to win in the general election.

" 'Oh, this is so terrible: The people they want her. Oh, this is so terrible: She is winning the general election, and he is not. Oh my goodness, we have to cover this up.' "

Clinton did not expound on who he was accusing.

The former president added that his wife had not been given the respect she deserved as a legitimate presidential candidate.

"She is winning the general election today and he is not, according to all the evidence," Clinton said. "And I have never seen anything like it. I have never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running."

"Her only position was, 'Look, if I lose I'll be a good team player. We will all try to win, but let's let everybody vote, and count every vote,' " he said.

The former president suggested that if the New York senator ended the primary season with an edge in the popular vote, it would be a significant development.

"If you vote for her and she does well in Montana and she does well in Puerto Rico, when this is over she will be ahead in the popular vote," Clinton said.

"And they're trying to get her to cry uncle before the Democratic Party has to decide what to do in Florida and Michigan," which Clinton said the party would need to do "unless we want to lose the election."

The current requirement to claim the Democratic presidential nomination is 2,026 delegates, a formula that does not take into account delegates from Florida and Michigan, whose contests were not sanctioned by the party because they moved them up earlier on the primary calendar.

But if those votes were counted as cast, Hillary Clinton would still trail rival Barack Obama in the overall delegate count.

The former president said Sunday that the media had unfairly attacked his wife since the Iowa caucuses, repeating an often-used charge that press coverage had made him feel as though he were living in a "fun house."

"If you notice, there hasn't been a lot of publicity on these polls I just told you about," he said. "It is the first time you've heard it? Why do you think that is? Why do you think? Don't you think if the polls were the reverse and he was winning the Electoral College against Senator McCain and Hillary was losing it, it would be blasted on every television station?"

He added, "You would know it wouldn't you? It wouldn't be a little secret. And there is another Electoral College poll that I saw yesterday had her over 300 electoral votes. ... She will win the general election if you nominate her. They're just trying to make sure you don't."

SAN JUAN, P.R. - Puerto Rico traditionally complains of being ignored by the rest of the United States, but that has just changed, if only for the moment. With a Democratic presidential primary to be held here on June 1, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton began their Memorial Day weekend on Saturday campaigning in the Spanish-speaking Caribbean.

Mrs. Clinton, now the clear underdog in the race, has been especially active, combining American and Latin American campaign techniques in hopes of demonstrating her strength in yet another Hispanic constituency. She has not only employed television and radio advertisements in Spanish and English, but has also sent batucada percussion ensembles and mobile loudspeakers playing reggaeton chants into the streets to spread her message.

Mr. Obama was honored here on Saturday at a caminata, a political parade, where hundreds of admirers gathered in La Plaza del Quinto and marched with him and waved "Obama Presidente" signs high in the air.

Puerto Rico will send 55 pledged delegates to the Democratic convention, nearly twice the combined total of Montana and South Dakota, the states with balloting on June 3 that will bring the primary season to an end. But given that Mr. Obama has won a majority of the pledged delegates and also leads among superdelegates, Mrs. Clinton's effort suggests she has an additional objective in mind here.

"She's trying to run up her margin of victory" to win more popular votes over all than Mr. Obama and bolster her contention that she would be the stronger candidate in November, said Angelo Falcon, president of the National Institute for Latino Policy. But that argument is not particularly persuasive, Mr. Falcon said, "due to this colonial relationship Puerto Rico has with the United States, which means that people on the island aren't allowed to vote for president."

About four million people live in Puerto Rico, and a roughly equal number of Puerto Ricans reside on the mainland, with the largest concentration in the three-state New York City metropolitan area.

Because Puerto Rico is a semi-autonomous commonwealth and not a state, only Puerto Ricans living on the mainland can cast ballots for president in November.

Politics here inevitably revolves around the issue of the island's peculiar status in relation to the United States, with one major party advocating statehood and the other favoring a continuation of the current arrangement, known as a "free associated state." Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama have tried to avoid getting embroiled in that debate, issuing Delphic pronouncements and taking care to appoint one campaign co-chairman from each party.

As he took questions at an event in the city of Bayamon on Saturday morning, Mr. Obama heard an array of concerns from residents who said they felt like second-class citizens.

"What it comes down to is respect," Mr. Obama said.

Though polling here is sketchy, Mrs. Clinton is regarded as the clear favorite. She is a familiar figure to Puerto Ricans, dating to her time as first lady, when she got involved in disaster relief after Hurricane Georges in 1998 and met with protesters seeking an end to the Navy's use of the island of Vieques for bombing practice.

In Congress, Mrs. Clinton has pushed to include Puerto Rico fully in government social welfare programs and has sponsored legislation specifically for the benefit of the island, which sends only a nonvoting delegate to Congress.

"She is the senator from New York and the senator for Puerto Rico, and people here are aware of that," said Kenneth McClintock Hernandez, a statehood advocate who is one of Mrs. Clinton's campaign managers on the island.

At a rally on Saturday evening in Aguadilla, at the western end of the island, Mrs. Clinton struck many of those same themes. To cheers, she said, "I believe you should have a vote in picking the president," even before the issue of the island's status is resolved, and promised that if elected, her administration would "fully clean up" the Vieques site.

"My commitment to Puerto Rico did not start last month or last year," Mrs. Clinton said, taking a swipe at Mr. Obama. "It stretches back more than a decade."

Roberto Prats Palerm, the Democratic Party chairman and Mrs. Clinton's other campaign manager, said that between them, Bill and Chelsea Clinton had spent a week on the island, attending more than two dozen events. Until his arrival this weekend, Mr. Obama had visited just once, for a fund-raiser last year, though his wife, Michelle Obama, campaigned for him here earlier this month.

But Mr. Obama, whose local advertisements emphasize that he was also born and raised on an island far from the American mainland and consciousness, has run into difficulties, too. Early in the year, he was endorsed by Anibal Acevedo Vila, the governor of Puerto Rico. In late March, though, Mr. Acevedo was charged with 19 counts of violating federal election and campaign finance laws, and he stepped down as co-chairman of the Obama campaign.

"There is no question that Hillary Clinton has more name recognition" and that voters are aware of the governor's problems, said Eduardo Bhatia, a chairman of the Obama campaign. "But we have been making up ground fast."

There have indeed been some recent signs of an Obama upswing. Last week, for instance, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico campaigned for him in the streets of Ponce, the main city on the southern coast of the island, accompanied by the city's mayor, nominally a Clinton supporter, and former Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon, the popular patriarch of Puerto Rican politics.

Mr. Obama began his 20-hour tour of Puerto Rico in Bayamon, where he met with a small group of veterans. Later, he took part in the caminata in Old San Juan.

A series of Obama jingles, set to the beat of salsa and reggaeton, filled the air on Saturday as Mr. Obama walked along San Miguel Street. He told residents they could have a large voice in the election, saying, "If we do well in Puerto Rico, there's no reason why I will not be announcing that I am the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America."

As in other recent primaries, race may also end up playing a role in determining how people vote. But here, Mr. Obama's biracial identity is perceived as working to his advantage.

"On the mainland, Obama is black, but not in Puerto Rico," said Juan Manuel García Passalacqua, a political commentator. "Here he is a mulatto, and this is a mulatto society. People here are perfectly prepared to vote for someone who looks like them for president of the United States."

By Larry Rohter, The New York Times, May 25, 2008

BAYAMON, P.R. - Traditionally, Puerto Ricans have both served in the Armed Forces and died in combat in numbers disproportionate to their share of the population. So it rankles many on the island that, even as their sons and daughters are serving with distinction in Iraq and Afghanistan, they do not enjoy all of the same rights and privileges of citizenship as other Americans.

Campaigning in Puerto Rico on Memorial Day ahead of a Democratic primary here on June 1, Hillary Rodham Clinton tapped into that sentiment Monday, which former governor Carlos Romero Barcelo and others had expressed to her. At the same time, she managed to reiterate her own belated opposition to the war in Iraq while also promising a better deal for veterans if she is elected president.

At the Sierra Linda housing project here in this working class suburb of San Juan, she stopped in the modest apartment of Carlos Manuel Rivera Figueroa and Laura Santiago, whose 21-year-old son Jonathan has served a tour of duty in Iraq and is now stationed in Alaska, wondering if he will have to serve another tour of combat duty. The conversation was a bit awkward at times, due in part to language difficulties on both sides, but the larger message was clear.

"When I'm president, we will begin ending the war in Iraq, and you won't have to worry about him going back," she told the couple after they showed her a picture of their son in his uniform. Mr. Rivera, a 59-year-old maintenance worker at a neighborhood recreation center, explained that the young man had enlisted right out of high school because good jobs are scarce here, and threw a compliment Mrs. Clinton's way.

"You don't get old, you know," he said. Mrs. Clinton laughed, turned to Ms. Santiago and said: "No wonder you married him."

Though Puerto Ricans living on the mainland have the right to vote in presidential elections, the 4 million people living here do not. Mrs. Clinton noted that when Jonathan Rivera's military service ends and he returns home, he will relinquish the possibility of voting for president, and that, she said, "makes me unhappy."

Last week, Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Senator Barack Obama, the leader in the Democratic delegate count, got into a sharp exchange about a 21st-century version of the G.I. Bill, with Mr. Obama saying Mr. McCain wanted to be stingy and the McCain camp questioning Mr. Obama's credentials to talk about the subject at all, given his lack of military service. Mrs. Clinton was not part of that argument, but on Monday also staked her claim to take part in the debate.

"Our veterans deserve a commander in chief who will take care of them, and I will," she said at the Rivera's apartment, a pledge she repeated in the afternoon while addressing a union group in Ponce. In her last event in Puerto Rico before returning to the American mainland Monday evening, she was scheduled to make remarks with a Memorial Day theme and to lay a wreath in Old San Juan to the Puerto Rican soldiers who have fallen while fighting America's wars.

By Larry Rohter, The New York Times, May 26, 2008

Puerto Rico's "second-class" American citizens will finally be given a voice this week in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, even though Barack Obama is acting as if he has already won it.

Hillary Clinton has spent the past three days storming across the Caribbean island, swapping her standard dark trouser suit for a bright pink tropical blouse and, on more than one occasion, allowing herself to be seen dancing. Yesterday she was joined by her husband, Bill, and their daughter, Chelsea, for a series of "conversations with Puerto Rican families".

She has shrugged off the controversy over her remarks suggesting that the assassination of Robert Kennedy in 1968 meant that unforeseen events could still transform the race. Instead, Mrs Clinton tells crowds that by fighting on she has given them an historic chance to help to pick the next president. "If I had listened to those who have been talking in the last several months, we would not be having this campaign in Puerto Rico," she told churchgoers.

Mr Obama, by contrast, made a more token visit to the island on Saturday before heading back for a sweep through Western states expected to be crucial in November's election. Yesterday he was in New Mexico, today he is scheduled to be in Nevada, tomorrow in Colorado.

By Tom Baldwin, The Times, May 26, 2008

Clinton Is Favored to Win Puerto Rico's Primary

Eager to put her controversial remarks about Robert Kennedy's assassination behind her, Sen. Hillary Clinton took off to Puerto Rico this weekend, where she shimmied to Enrique Iglesias, swigged from a bottle of Presidente beer and once again proclaimed her determination to continue her longshot campaign.

But Clinton also acknowledged, for the first time, that the odds of her becoming her party's presidential nominee are stacked against her.

Puerto Ricans might not be able to vote for president this November, but they can turn out on June 1 for the Democratic primary, which Clinton is favored to win. She hopes that a victory there will enable her to argue to superdelegates that she has won a majority of the popular vote.

After that, only two primaries are left. Montana and South Dakota will wrap up the long Democratic primary season June 3, and Democrats are waiting to see whether Clinton presses her campaign beyond the primaries and into the Democrats' August convention.

Clinton acknowledged in a column in the New York Daily News Sunday that her chances are dwindling.

"I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination," she wrote.

Nevertheless, she campaigned in Puerto Rico with her usual gusto. She promised she would bring voting rights to the island, saying, "I believe you should have a vote in picking the president too."

On Sunday, however, she seemed to back off that pledge, saying, "All people are entitled to a representative form of government. And all levels of government. The people of Puerto Rico should have the right to determine by a majority vote the status you choose from among all the options."

In South Dakota, her husband, former President Bill Clinton, likewise resisted the idea that his wife concede the race to Sen. Barack Obama and accused the media of being part of a "conspiracy" to push his wife out of contention. Clinton said the media has ignored poll numbers that he claims show Hillary Clinton would run a stronger race against Republican John McCain.

"Don't you think if the polls were the reverse and he were winning the electoral college against Sen. McCain and Hillary was losing it, it would be blasted on every television station in America? You would know it wouldn't you? It wouldn't be a little secret," Clinton told a rally in South Dakota where he was campaigning for his wife.

Obama, who picked up three more superdelegates over the weekend, hopes to wrap up the nomination after next Sunday's primary. Former Pesident Jimmy Carter, who has stayed officially neutral in the race, said he he hopes Clinton doesn't press her campaign beyond the last primary.

"I have not yet announced publicly, but at that point it'll be the time for her to give it up," Carter said over the weekend.

Clinton may have hurt her chances, however, of becoming Obama's running mate by her comment last week that anything could happen and that Robert Kennedy was assassinated during his campaign.

The remark drew gasps from both campaigns. Obama's wife, Michelle, has said publicly she fears that because Obama is black he could be targeted by racists.

Clinton has said she regretted the comment.

"I was making the simple point that given our history, the length of this year's primary contest is nothing unusual," Clinton wrote in the New York Daily News. "But I was deeply dismayed and disturbed that my comment would be construed in a way that flies in the face of everything I stand for -- and for everything I am fighting for in this election."

Nevertheless, ABC News' senior political analysts Matthew Dowd said it could cost her a shot at the veep slot.

"I think it's [the chances] lower than it was," Dowd told "Good Morning America" today. "What you want is loyalty, and I think there's some question, I'm sure, in the Obama campaign how loyal will she be."

By JAKE TAPPER, ABC News, May 26, 2008

From the outset, as she sat on a couch and announced her candidacy via online video, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has had a complicated relationship to the Internet and, in comparison to her chief rival, a consistently losing Web presence.

The tone was set early, with the appearance of the "Vote Different" YouTube, the now infamous mash-up of the "1984" Apple computers Super Bowl commercial that took Clinton's own words -- "Let the conversation begin" -- and, in 74 seconds, presented her as the droning, robotic voice of the establishment, an Orwellian Big Sister. That video, created by an Obama supporter, has been viewed nearly 5.2 million times since it was uploaded in March 2006.

Nearly a year later, in a speech on St. Patrick's Day, Clinton spoke of "landing under sniper fire" when she arrived in Bosnia in 1996. Clinton's account was swiftly disproven by photos, eyewitness reports and video footage; The Post's Fact Checker gave her Four Pinnochios. But more than that, type "Clinton" and "Bosnia" on YouTube and some 675 videos have been uploaded, most of them negative. "Way to go, Hillary Clinton. You lied. You lied in front of millions and millions of people," one YouTube user said in a video.

And on Friday, with the headlong speed characteristic of the Web -- and in a manner that quickly divorced Clinton's words from their context -- her remarks to the editorial board of the Argus Leader in Sioux, S.D., took on a life of their own.

The comments were picked up by the NYPost.com and posted on Drudge.com, a must-read site for reporters and other news junkies, and subsequently spread like viral wildfire to other blogs. The NYPost.com initially reported that Clinton, in describing past protracted primaries, including the 1968 primary in which Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated, made "an odd comparison between the dead candidate and Barack Obama."

No such "odd comparison" was made, according to video footage and a transcript of the editorial board interview. Kennedy's son, a Clinton supporter, issued a statement saying that he saw nothing wrong with Clinton's remarks; the Argus Leader issued its own statement, noting that her mention of the assassination "appeared to focus on the timeline of his primary candidacy and not the assassination itself." It also turns out that two months ago, Clinton made similar remarks to Time magazine.

But the die, it seems, had been cast. Never mind Clinton's swift apology, also on video, and her letter to the New York Daily News yesterday explaining why she's staying in the race. Online, judging by countless blog postings and comments on YouTube, Clinton was again on the defensive, the ripe and ready target of blistering criticism.

The Web, after all, is fueled by people -- loud, engaged, partisan people. And those online partisans have been better organized by and are more likely to self-organize to support Obama. Not only has Clinton been unable to top Obama in formal online metrics -- he beats her in money raised online, number of supporters on MySpace and Facebook and number of views on a YouTube channel -- she has continued to be the targeted Democratic candidate on the Internet when it comes to the actions of self-organizing swarms.

It was true last fall, when Clinton was deemed the front-runner for the nomination.

And it's been true during this Memorial Day weekend.

By Jose Antonio Vargas, The Washington Post, May 26, 2008

With controversy still swirling around her following her remarks about the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, campaigning Sunday in Puerto Rico ahead of a primary there on June 1, did what people on the Caribbean island have traditionally done in times of trial. She went first to church, and then headed off to the beach.

Mrs. Clinton's choice of a place of worship Sunday morning surprised some Puerto Ricans, and has been discussed on local radio. On an island that is predominantly Roman Catholic, she ended up going to the Pavilion of Victory, an evangelical church in Hormigueros, in the southwest corner of the island.

Among those Protestant strivers, who had been worked into a state of enthusiasm by an hour of singing and dancing to rock and salsa-flavored hymns before her arrival, Mrs. Clinton obviously felt at home. She talked, in English and mostly without translation, not only of her political program, but also of her faith, and in terms that seemed to refer to her uphill struggle and recent difficulties.

She urged the congregation, for example, not to be "deterred by the setbacks that often fall into every life" and also said: "Do not fear to go forward, do not give up."

"There isn't anything we can't do together if we seek God's blessing and if we stay committed and are not deterred by the setbacks that often fall in every life."

She added, "If I had listened to those who have been talking over the last few months, we would not be having this campaign in Puerto Rico today."

After changing from a turquoise pants suit into a more casual tropical ensemble of pink and white, Mrs. Clinton went to nearby Boqueron Beach, crowded with bathers on a warm Memorial Day holiday weekend. There she was greeted by a dance troupe in traditional peasant costumes, which performed to music that proclaimed, "It's Carnival time, everything is happiness and joy," and by the mayor of Cabo Rojo, an exuberant woman named Perza Rodriguez.

"We admire a woman of your determination, intelligence and leadership," Ms. Rodriguez said, striking the same tone Mrs. Clinton had at church. She then joined Mrs. Clinton on a walk down the beach, as a batucada, or percussion ensemble, pounded out a tropical beat and Clinton supporters in green t-shirts chanted "Hil-la-ry, Hil-la-ry" with a Spanish pronunciation.

After that, it was on to Penuelas, where Mrs. Clinton embraced yet another Puerto Rican Sunday custom: mid-afternoon lunch at a seaside restaurant, this one called Boquemar, in a setting with a mangrove swamp and manatees lurking nearby. And as tradition also demands, especially of a public official who has proudly and repeatedly been pointing out that "I represent one million Puerto Ricans" living in New York, Mrs. Clinton adhered to a classic Puerto Rican menu: rice, beans and twice-fried plantains stuffed with meat and seafood.

By Larry Rohter, The New York Times, May 25, 2008

The Clinton campaign is in full push-back mode this morning, trying to "set the record straight" and contain the damage from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's comments Friday about Bobby Kennedy.

Mrs. Clinton wrote a long letter to The Daily News in New York, which was printed in the news pages and in which Mrs. Clinton said her remarks were taken entirely out of context.

And her aides said on Sunday that the campaign of Senator Barack Obama was partly responsible for fanning the flames.

The Clinton campaign has been knocked back on its heels by the reaction to her comments, made Friday to the editorial board of the Argus Leader in Sioux Falls, S.D., in which she said she did not understand why some people were trying to push her out of the presidential race because historically, other campaigns had gone on into June, and added:

"You know my husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right?" she said. "We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California."

The Internet is at full tilt with thousands of readers writing that they were shocked at her comments and others saying that they were misconstrued.

She wrote in her letter to the Daily News that she wanted to "set the record straight."

"I pointed out, as I have before, that both my husband's primary campaign, and Sen. Robert Kennedy's, had continued into June," she wrote. "Almost immediately, some took my comments entirely out of context and interpreted them to mean something completely different - and completely unthinkable."

Also on Sunday, Howard Wolfson, Mrs. Clinton's spokesman, said that both the media and the Obama campaign had been fanning the flames.

The Obama campaign had sent an e-mail on Friday to reporters saying the remarks had no place in a presidential campaign. It was relying on a faulty online report in the New York Post that said Mrs. Clinton was "making an odd comparison between the dead candidate and Barack Obama." By immediately jumping into the story, within a matter of minutes, the Obama campaign fed suggestions that Mrs. Clinton had somehow made a link between Mr. Obama and Mr. Kennedy's death.

"The Obama campaign did put out a statement almost immediately condemning the remarks," Mr. Wolfson said on CBS' "Face the Nation." "It was unfortunate and unnecessary, and in my opinion, inflammatory, for the Obama campaign to attack Senator Clinton on Friday for these remarks, without obviously knowing the full facts or context."

In addition, the Obama campaign sent the entire political press corps the transcript of a searing commentary about Mrs. Clinton by Keith Olbermann on MSNBC.

George Stephanopoulos, the host of ABC's "This Week," asked David Axelrod, Mr. Obama's top strategist, about the e-mail:

Mr. Stephanopoulos: You say you're not trying to stir the issue up. But a member of your press staff yesterday was sending around to an entire press list - I have the e-mail here - Keith Olbermann's searing commentary against Hillary Clinton. So that is stirring this up, isn't it?"

Mr. Axelrod: "Well, Mr. Olbermann did his commentary and he had his opinion. But as far as we're concerned."

Mr. Stephanopoulos: "But your campaign was sending it around."

Mr. Axelrod: "As far as we're concerned, George, as far as we're concerned, this issue is done. It was an unfortunate statement, as we said, as she's acknowledged. She has apologized. The apology, you know, is accepted. Let's move forward."

Mr. Axelrod: "There's so many important things going on in this country right now, George, that people are interested in that we're not going to spend days dwelling on this."

In her letter to the Daily News, Mrs. Clinton wrote: "I want to set the record straight: I was making the simple point that given our history, the length of this year's primary contest is nothing unusual.

"I realize that any reference to that traumatic moment for our nation can be deeply painful - particularly for members of the Kennedy family, who have been in my heart and prayers over this past week. And I expressed regret right away for any pain I caused.

"But I was deeply dismayed and disturbed that my comment would be construed in a way that flies in the face of everything I stand for - and everything I am fighting for in this election."

She also notes that the editors of the newspaper issued a statement agreeing with her view - that she was speaking about the primary timeline, not the assassination. And she cites a statement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Bobby's son, who supports her, saying "it is a mistake for people to take offense."

She goes on to "more fully answer" the question she was originally asked, about why she continues her campaign.

Here are the key points:

* "I still believe I can win on the merits."

* "I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination - but this race remains extraordinarily close, and hundreds of thousands of people in upcoming primaries are still waiting to vote."

* "...staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party." She said if she and Mr. Obama can both make their case through the full season, "in the end, everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee."

* "...my parents did not raise me to be a quitter."

* "As the first female candidate in this position, I believe I have a responsibility to finish this race."

* "...I believe I'm the strongest candidate to stand toe-to-toe with Sen. McCain," she writes, referring to Senator John McCain, the likely Republican nominee.

* "Delegate math might be complicated - but electoral math is not. Our campaign is winning the popular vote," she writes, without noting that this is the case only by including the disputed results in Michigan and Florida, "and we've been winning the swing states we need to get 270 electoral votes and take back the White House." (Historically, primary results have had little bearing on the results in a general election.)

She concludes: "But no matter what happens in this primary, I am committed to unifying this party."

By Katharine Q. Seelye, The New York Times, May 25, 2008

Ruy Teixeira, a Democratic analyst of voting trends, wrote the book on the core issue in the endgame of the party's nomination fight. Its title is "America's Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters."

One might conclude that Mr. Teixeira is troubled by Senator Barack Obama's performance in recent primaries against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton among the voters known by nicknames like Joe Sixpack or Nascar Dad or Waitress Mom.

Actually, he is not.

Mr. Obama, who leads the delegate count, "is clocking in where he needs to be" with white, working-class voters to win the White House in November, Mr. Teixeira said.

Through most of the primaries, the constituencies supporting either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama have remained remarkably stable. While Mr. Obama, of Illinois, has energized young, African-American and affluent voters, his rival from New York has dominated among women, Hispanics, blue-collar whites and older voters.

Among white, working-class voters - most commonly identified as those without a college degree - Mrs. Clinton has won by 2 to 1 or better in states like Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama has fared better among less culturally conservative working-class whites in states like Oregon, where the environment is a central issue for voters. Still, Mrs. Clinton's claim that she is best positioned to win the "hard-working Americans, white Americans" has become the linchpin of her argument that she is more electable than Mr. Obama.

But Mr. Teixeira, who is not backing either candidate, does not buy that argument. He dismisses intraparty contests as "pretty poor evidence" of whether Mr. Obama, as the Democratic nominee, could attract the blue-collar support he would need against Senator John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee.

No Majority Needed

And how much blue-collar support would Mr. Obama need? Not a majority, said Mr. Teixeira. Though blue-collar Democrats once represented a centerpiece of the New Deal coalition, they have shrunk as a proportion of the information age-economy and as a proportion of the Democratic base.

Al Gore lost working-class white voters by 17 percentage points in 2000, even while winning the national popular vote. Senat or John Kerry of Massachusetts lost them by 23 points in 2004, while running within three points of President Bush over all. Mr. Teixeira suggests that Mr. Obama can win the presidency if he comes within 10 to 12 percentage points of Mr. McCain with these voters, as Democratic candidates for the House did in the 2006 midterm election.

In recent national polls, that is exactly what Mr. Obama is doing. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Mr. Obama trailing by 12 percentage points with working-class whites; a poll by Quinnipiac University, showed him trailing by seven points. In each survey, Mr. Obama led over all by seven points.

Democrats learned from Mr. Gore's Electoral College defeat that national polls are not everything. Mrs. Clinton's advisers point to states like Florida, where Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. McCain while Mr. Obama lags behind, as evidence that Mr. Obama's working-class weakness could prove decisive.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, agrees. He said recent focus groups among blue-collar whites in Florida, Michigan and Missouri found "very significant" resistance to Mr. Obama. He attributed that partly to racial attitudes, but more broadly to the cultural distance those voters felt from the liberal, Ivy League-educated candidate.

Help From New Voters

But Mr. Ayres concedes that resistance need not be fatal to Mr. Obama's candidacy. "The question is whether they'll be counterbalanced by the new voters and young voters he brings in," he said.

Mr. Obama's advisers, and some unaffiliated strategists, acknowledge that he would lose some working-class votes that Mrs. Clinton might receive should she somehow win over enough superdelegates to capture the nomination. But they insist the answer to Mr. Ayres is yes, Mr. Obama would attract other voters to offset those losses.

In two states where Mrs. Clinton swamped Mr. Obama among working-class white voters, some recent surveys have shown him leading Mr. McCain. Is working-class resistance in Ohio and Pennsylvania going to be enough to prevent Mr Obama from winning, asks Mark Mellman, an adviser to the Senate majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada. "I think the answer is, it's not."

Mr. Teixeira argues that Mr. Obama's standing with working-class whites may be artificially low in the wake of his skirmishing with Mrs. Clinton and the controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

"Yes, he has a problem," Mr. Teixeira said. "But it's a solvable problem."

Cuban independence week featured lengthy policy statements in Miami by John McCain and Barack Obama, but came and went without Hillary Rodham Clinton saying much on the topic. On Sunday night, however, speaking in San Juan, P.R., at the "Casa de Cuba," a community center for refugees from Cuba who have settled in Puerto Rico, she finally weighed in.

On several fundamental points, the posture toward Cuba that Mrs. Clinton has outlined seemed to have more in common with the position of Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, than that of Mr. Obama. She promised to "redouble our efforts to support civil society" in Cuba, but imposed conditions on any high-level contacts with their government. And while she did not refer to her rival for the Democratic nomination by name, she did criticize him indirectly.

As president, she said, her goal would be to throw American support behind a push for "a free, open, democratic Cuba." That country is now at a crossroads, she said, "and we must do all we can to make sure the government of Cuba makes the right choice," moving away from "the failed policies of the past and charting a new course."

Mrs. Clinton acknowledged that since Fidel Castro stepped down as president of Cuba in February and was replaced by his brother Raul, Cuba has experienced "some small first steps" toward a more open society. But she also said those "are minor compared with the giant leaps" that are required.

The main thrust of her remarks, however, seemed aimed at drawing a distinction between herself and Mr. Obama, the leader in the delegate count in the Democratic race, who has said repeatedly on the campaign trail that he is willing to meet leaders of adversary states like Cuba "without preconditions," but after "preparation" that includes lower-level diplomatic contacts.

That is not good enough, Mrs. Clinton said. In order for Cuban leaders to earn a meeting with the president of the United States, "they must show their good faith," and she highlighted three areas in which the Cuban government must demonstrate improvements: by convoking "free and competitive elections like you have here," by releasing political prisoners, and by allowing the exercise of free expression and assembly.

"I would certainly reach out a hand in friendship if real change were to take place," she said. "But I will not give away the chance for real change."

By Larry Rohter, The New York Times, May 25, 2008

In Boca Raton, Florida, today, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, told the AP that she's willing to take her fight to seat Florida's and Michigan's delegates (also known as her fight to be the Democratic nominee) to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo., this August if Democratic leaders in the two states want her to.

"Yes I will," she told the AP. "I will, because I feel very strongly about this."

By Jake Tapper, ABC News, May 21, 2008

NEW YORK (AP) - Two weeks before the final primary in their marathon battle, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton were campaigning hard Wednesday. Both were in Florida, but their goals could hardly have been more different - or said more about how each one hopes to bring their historic race to a close.

Obama, feeling sure of the Democratic nomination, was trying to stake an early claim to a state that could be crucial in the general election against Republican John McCain. Clinton, insisting she can still be her party's nominee, was making an impassioned plea for the state's disputed primary results to be counted.

Obama plans to contest the final three primaries in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana, but he is already moving on, well into the early stages of a general election plan that will take him to other critical swing states in the coming weeks.

His campaign was offering some new delegate math - before the last votes were cast.

Because of how the party allocates its delegates, Obama almost certainly cannot win the nomination based on the 86 pledged delegates yet to be claimed in the final three contests. But his advisers project that he needs just 25 to 28 more superdelegates to come aboard by the end of the primaries to put him over the top.

The campaign's estimate were confirmed through a separate tabulation by The Associated Press.

As for Clinton, aides said she has two immediate goals: to see the results of the Florida and Michigan primaries restored, and to persuade the remaining uncommitted superdelegates that she would be the better candidate in November against McCain.

While she has signaled that the race will soon end after the final primaries June 3, Clinton is also counting on a meeting of the Democratic Party's rules committee May 31 to bring an end to the dispute over Michigan and Florida, whose delegates were striped after they violated party rules by moving up their contests.

If the committee does not satisfactorily resolve the matter, the New York senator hinted Wednesday she would support a drawn-out battle that could go to the party's convention in August.

"Yes I will. I will, because I feel very strongly about this," Clinton said in an interview with The Associated Press when asked whether her campaign would support Michigan and Florida if they pressed the issue into the summer.

Still, all signs overwhelmingly indicate that Obama will emerge as the Democratic standard-bearer.

A handful of superdelegate endorsements Wednesday on top of primary results in Kentucky and Oregon have brought him within striking distance of claiming the nomination - the Illinois senator is 64 delegates from the 2,026 needed under Democratic Party rules as well as close to becoming the first black nominee of a major party.

In the past, primary results have touched off a wave of superdelegates. It was just a few Wednesday. Privately, Obama strategists said they believed a number were still inclined to wait until after the primaries are over out of respect for the Clintons, who remain major figures within the party.

Joe Andrew, a former DNC chairman and superdelegate who switched allegiance from Clinton to Obama, said that while Obama reaching the majority of pledged delegates was a symbolic moment, "delegates aren't just looking for moments. They are looking for reasons to make a decision that many of them know that is probably inevitable."

He added that until the race ends, "I think they will portray themselves as genuinely torn. I don't mean to say they are play acting. I think most of them in their gut have made their decision. I think they are torn about how to explain that decision and when they should announce."

With Obama's near-certain victory in sight, both sides are now urging unity with the hope of putting the often rancorous primary season behind them.

While little formal outreach has gone on between the two camps - Obama's out of caution for appearing disrespectful, Clinton's because she is still campaigning - advisers on both sides said they will be ready to talk when the time comes.

"I don't know anyone in either the Hillary Clinton or the Obama worlds who has not publicly said and privately believed that we will all come together for the sake of the Democratic nominee," Clinton national finance co-chairman Hassan Nemazee said.

But, he added, "There's a dance that goes on in this. The Obama people in recent weeks have become far more careful in what they say and do in a way that is not overly presumptive."

Several major fundraisers for both campaigns have already joined forces to raise money for the Democratic National Committee that will go toward promoting the eventual nominee. An event in New York honoring former Vice President Al Gore will take place May 31 co-chaired by prominent Obama and Clinton backers, with all proceeds going to the DNC.

At least one committed Clinton hand - her former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle - has spoken to the Obama campaign about coming aboard after he secures the nomination. But most of her staff and close advisers remain deeply loyal to the New York senator and say they plan to stay with her as long as she is in the race.

As is traditional for the presidential nominee of each party, Obama has already moved to put his own staff in place at the Democratic National Committee. His advisers said Paul Tewes, who planned and ran Obama's victorious Iowa caucus strategy, is Obama's choice to take the reins at the committee once the Illinois senator wins the nomination.

He's also brought aboard a couple of notable staff hires, including Linda Douglass, a former ABC news correspondent who will serve as a message strategist and spokeswoman. Her appointment was seen as a smart move for a campaign with few women in visible roles.

By Beth Fouhy, The Associated Press, May 21, 2008

A woman? Yes. But not that woman.

It is the platitude of the moment, an automatic rejoinder to any suggestion that Hillary Clinton has struggled so desperately -- and so far unsuccessfully -- to grasp the Democratic presidential nomination in some measure because she is female.

It isn't the woman part, the rationale goes. It's the Clinton part: that "polarizing" persona and "unlikable" demeanor. The unappetizing thought of President "Billary." The more inspirational quest by Barack Obama to become the country's first black president.

Yet the question remains: If not now, when? If not Hillary, who?

The record suggests that if Clinton is not the nominee, no woman will seriously contend for the White House for another generation. This was the outcome of the 1984 Geraldine Ferraro experiment. After 24 years, Ferraro remains the only woman ever to run for national office on a major-party ticket. And she was selected, not elected, as a vice presidential candidate.

"Maybe a generation from now," says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. "My feeling is, I don't see who's coming after Clinton, and I don't feel like it's going to be easy for whoever comes next."

The United States already lags miserably behind the rest of the world in electing a woman as head of state. To look around the globe is to see a stark truth: Americans seem peculiarly averse to female leadership.

Women have had some success in gaining legislative office. Yet only eight women currently serve as governors, the springboard to the White House for four of the past five presidents.

So which woman, exactly, would be acceptable?

Readers -- that inexact approximation of vox populi -- typically answer: Someone like Margaret Thatcher of Elizabeth Dole or Condoleezza Rice or Christine Todd Whitman or maybe Kathleen Sebelius, the Democratic governor of Kansas. The roll call itself illuminates the barriers.

Thatcher, for instance, never ran for executive office on her own. She became the first (and only) female prime minister of Britain by reaching the leadership of the Conservative Party. That is how many female heads of state have risen -- through parliamentary systems that often use quotas to guarantee women legislative seats. Americans don't like quotas much.Here, though, revulsion often is expressed at the prospect of the Bushes and Clintons trading the White House among one another. But the "dynasty" argument didn't impede other American political families: not the Adamses, nor the Roosevelts nor the Kennedys. It sure didn't keep George W. Bush from becoming president.

BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Invoking the controversial dispute over electoral results in Florida in 2000, Hillary Clinton is campaigning in areas where Democrats felt their votes were not counted fairly then and demanding that this year's results of primaries both in the Sunshine State and Michigan be counted, even though they violated Democratic Party rules.

"We believe the popular vote is the truest expression of your will. We believe it today just as we believed it back in 2000 when, right here in Florida, you learned the hard way what happens when your votes aren't counted and a candidate with fewer votes is declared the winner," Clinton told a crowd at retirement home in Boca Raton. "The lesson of 2000 here in Florida is crystal clear: if any votes aren't counted, the will of the people isn't realized and our democracy is diminished."

While counting the votes in Florida and Michigan, both states where Clinton won the popular vote, would help her candidacy, Clinton cast her cause in historical and moral terms in a speech that quoted the Declaration of Independence, described the struggle of blacks and women to earn voting rights and invoked the legacies of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry Truman. And her staging was even more clear, starting off talking to a group of seniors in Palm Beach County, the place known for the so-called dimpled chads and a confusing ballot that resulted in some Democrats voting for Pat Buchanan rather than Al Gore.

"I believe the Democratic Party must count these votes. ... Count them exactly as they were cast," she said. "I am here today because I believe the decision our party faces is not just about the fate of these votes and outcome of these primaries, it's about about whether we will uphold our most fundamental values as Democrats and Americans. ... I believe that both Senator Obama and myself have an obligation as potential Democratic nominees, in fact we all have an obligation as Democrats to carry on this legacy to ensure in our nominating process every voice is heard and every vote is counted. This is a core mission of the modern Democratic Party."

Her tone was a departure from the fiery populist rhetoric of recent days, in which she has cast herself as an underdog. Instead, in a soft, almost pleading voice, she said she believed that "whether you voted for me or Senator Obama or Senator Edwards, each vote is a prayer for our nation."

The crowd of several hundred loudly applauded, as her supporters do all over the country when she takes up the issue of counting the Michigan and Florida delegations, which has become a central plank in her longshot campaign to overtake Barack Obama. Clinton wants to count votes in Michigan and Florida, which could allow here to overtake Obama in the popular. If she won the popular vote, her aides said, along with maintaining her strong poll numbers in states like Florida against Sen. John McCain, it would strengthen her argument to Democratic superdelegates to chose her over Obama, who has won the battle over delegates selected through Democratic primaries and caucuses.

By Perry Bacon Jr., The Washington Post, May 21, 2008

BOCA RATON, Fla - Hillary Clinton returned to Florida for the first time since she declared victory there after the primary in January to argue that the results of that election should count - and the state's delegates should be seated.

"The Democratic Party must count these votes," she said to applause at the Century Village retirement community. "They should count them exactly as they were cast. Democracy demands no less."

Her argument centered on three basic points - Democrats' commitment to counting every vote, the injustice of punishing voters who did nothing themselves to deserve it, and the political implications of snubbing two key swing states - and she repeatedly raised the specter of the 2000 recount to drive her point home.

Recalling a few of her party-s historic fights to ensure the right to vote for women and minorities, Clinton said "both Senator Obama and myself have an obligation as potential Democratic nominees, in fact we all have an obligation as Democrats, to carry on this legacy and ensure that in our nominating process, that every voice is heard and every vote is counted."

Clinton suggested that Democratic voters were being penalized for the Republican legislature's decision to move the primary up to January - triggering the DNC's delegate action. "You didn't break a single rule and you should not be punished for matters beyond your control," she said.

And she argued that failing to seat the delegates in Michigan and Florida would critically impair Democrats' chances in November. "If Democrats send a message that we don't fully value your votes, we know that Senator McCain and the Republicans will be more than happy to have them," she said. "The Republicans will make a simple and compelling argument: why should Florida and Michigan voters trust the Democratic party to look out for you when they won't even listen to you?"

Peppered throughout her speech was the "lesson of 2000," which Clinton said is crystal clear. "If any votes aren't counted, the will of the people isn't realized and our democracy is diminished," she said.

"I remember very well back in 2000. There were those who argued that people's votes should be discounted over technicalities," she said. "For the people of Florida who voted in this primary, the notion of discounting their votes sounds way too much the same. The votes of 1.7m people should not be cast aside because of a technicality."

"It's not about the technicalities or about the contestants, it's about the will of the people. And whenever you can understand their intent, it should govern. It's very clear what 1.7 million people intended here in Florida."

To those who say her fight would amount to changing the rules, she said "the rules clearly state that we can count all of these votes and seat all of these delegates, pledged and unpledged if we so choose. And the rules lay out a clear process for doing so."

Clinton's arguments become less meaningful with each passing day, as Obama moves closer to securing enough delegates to win nomination with or without Michigan and Florida. But the New York Senator belittled the delegate process itself in favor of the popular vote - a measure she says she's winning.

"We carry on for a simple reason: we believe the outcome of our elections should be determined by the will of the people. Nothing more, nothing less," she said. "We believe the popular vote is the truest expression of your will. We believe it today, just as we believed it back in 2000, when right here in Florida you learned the hard way what happens when your votes aren't counted and the candidate with fewer votes is declared the winner."

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on May 31st to adjudicate the dispute. Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe says he believes the committee will come to a decision that day, and that after June 3rd superdelegates will chose sides so that the Party will have a nominee by the end of the month.

By Aaron Bruns, Fox News, May 21, 2008

As The Times first reported yesterday, Club McCain is open for the weekend in Sedona, Ariz., where some of the G.O.P.'s most electable up-and-comers and swingingest-staters get a chance to mingle with the presumptive nominee.

Adam Nagourney reports that Govs. Charlie Crist of Florida and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, as well as Mitt Romney, are set to hang with Senator John McCain at his ranch for a "social weekend." The test will be for "personal chemistry," he writes:

The identities of the potential running mates who have been summoned to Sedona are not a surprise. And even encouraging the perception that they are under consideration might be more a matter of appearance than political reality: the mere impression that Mr. McCain is considering a running mate from Florida, for example, could help him in a critical state where he campaigned on Wednesday.

Politico.com's Jonathan Martin looks at the pros and cons of the three potential partners, and The Wall Street Journal has an interview with Mr. Romney, who just announced the formation of his Free and Strong America political action committee this morning.

(While Mr. McCain and his new friends are chilling on the ranch, a "tightly controlled group of reporters" will be poring over his medical records.)

Though not in the way BoteBoth would like, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has been Senator Barack Obama's running mate for over a year now - and it's possible she'll continue to be throughout the summer. In a move that is confusing the pundits, advisers said she could continue campaigning beyond the last primaries if neither candidate has enough delegates to claim the nomination, and she signaled on Wednesday that if Florida and Michigan want to push their delegate fight to the convention, she'll support them.

As evidence of the continuing race's toll, Mr. Obama spent more than he took in for the first time in April, and Mrs. Clinton's campaign began May $9.5 million in the hole, according to the latest federal filings.

Primary delegates aren't Mr. Obama's only problem in Florida, The Times's Jodi Kantor finds. He is set to court Jewish voters in Boca Raton today, and easing their doubts and correcting their misperceptions won't be a day at the beach. And questions of his faith and patriotism aren't limited to one community, as viral smears become an increasing problem, report Mr. Martin and Ben Smith at Politico.com.

The Washington Post looks at a current close associate of Mr. McCain: Charlie Black, a top strategist whose list of lobbying clientèle is prompting Democrats to call for his resignation from the campaign.

A group of prominent South Dakota women, including Representative Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, plans to rally for Mr. Obama in advance of the state's last-in-the-nation (with Montana) primary.

Down Ballot
House Republicans released plans on Wednesday to overhaul their campaign organization and "audit" its activities during three recent special elections, during which Republicans lost three regularly red seats. Politico.com profiles Representative Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, who has become, fairly or unfairly, a scapegoat for the party's political problems.

By Sarah Wheaton, The New York Times, May 22, 2008

If Hillary Clinton were running a general election campaign right now--and hoping to kill two key Florida constituencies with one stone--her lunchtime stop today in Boca Raton wouldn't be a bad place to start. For starters, there's the name of the "adult condominium community" where she chose to stump--Century Village. That gives you an idea of the average age of the audience. Secondly, there's the sign on the building next to the clubhouse that housed Clinton's event: Congregation Torah Ohr. It wasn't a Catholic cathedral.

But unfortunately for Clinton, her chances of actually being on the ballot in November are vanishingly miniscule--and most everyone in attendance knew it. Although Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" blared on the PA, door workers who once would've demanded supporters' contact information requested instead that the crowd volunteer for the Palm Beach County Democratic Party. On stage, a local pol kept the waiting septuagenarians occupied with a homily on togetherness. "Whichever side of the aisle you're on in this election," he said, "We have to be a united party as soon as the superdelegates decide who the nominee is." In place of the slogan usually emblazoned on Clinton's podium--say, "Ready to Lead"--there was a simple URL: "HillaryClinton.com." And when Clinton herself took the stage, she didn't say a single word about any of her plans or proposals, or try to sway a single undecided voter

So why did Clinton come to Boca? Let's just say that symbolism played a part.

If you'll recall, Palm Beach County (home of the infamous butterfly ballot) was the central front in the battle to count every vote cast in 2000's razor-close presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore. It's the place where, thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court, the dream of a Democrat returning to the White House in 2001 finally died. With the remaining primaries offering no path to victory, Clinton today finally seized on this painful history to cast what had been one of her many rationales for staying in this unwinnable race--the need to count Florida and Michigan's disputed primary votes--as a "moral" crusade that compels her to continue. "I am here today because I believe the decision our party faces is not just about the fate of these votes and the outcome of these primaries, but whether we will uphold our most fundamental values as Democrats," she said. "The lesson of 2000 here in Florida is crystal clear: if any votes aren't counted, the will of the people isn't realized and our democracy is diminished." The crowd answered in unison: "Count our votes! Count over votes!"

If Clinton had stopped there, today's remarks would've served as (a slightly more monomaniacal version of) what's she already said before. She didn't--to put it mildly. Instead, in a wide-ranging--and carefully crafted--address that sounded, at times, like a history of American voting rights, Clinton suggested that discounting Florida and Michigan would betray the "generation of patriots who risked and sacrificed on the battlefield" to win American independence and ensure that a "just government [would] derive from the contest of the governed." Other saints would spin in their graves as well. Among them: "abolitionists"; the "tenacious women and few brave men who gathered at Seneca Falls in 1848" and spent the next "70 years struggling" for the right to vote; and the African-Americans who "knelt down on that bridge in Selma to pray and were beaten within an inch of their lives." (Clinton stopped short of mentioning Al Gore). In the end, she said, denying these votes would be of a piece with subjecting the good people of Florida and Michigan to the "poll taxes and literacy tests, violence and intimidation, dogs and tear gas" of the Jim Crow south. "It is because all that has been done that we are here in this election," she said, with a sly glance in her opponents' general direction. "I believe Sen. Obama and I have an obligation to carry on this legacy and ensure that every voice is heard and every vote is counted." In other words: I mean business.

A cynic might be tempted to remind Clinton that these disputed primaries only became a concern when it looked like they could help her, and only became a moral crusade when she had no other path to pursue. Last fall, for example, she said that Michigan "wouldn't count for anything," and two of her top aides, Harold Ickes and Terry McAuliffe, have until now supported punishing delinquent states by stripping their delegates. But Clinton wouldn't care. "Your votes should not be cast aside because of a technicality," she told the Century Villagers this afternoon. Judging by today's address, Clinton clearly hopes that Florida and Michigan will propel her past Obama in the popular-vote count and rally superdelegates to her side. Again, a cynic would probably feel compelled to note that the only plausible way Clinton can accomplish this feat is by awarding herself 328,309 votes in Michigan and awarding Obama (whose name wasn't on the ballot) a whopping zero--a sleight of hand that's unlikely to endear her to the decisive party members, but may very well discredit the Illinois senator's near-inevitable nomination among the half of the party (hers) that he still needs to win over. (Not to mention that nominations are determined by delegates instead of some chimerical, uncountable popular vote compiled from a half-dozen different kinds of contests.) Again, Clinton doesn't seem to care. "The popular vote is the truest expression of your will," she said. "I know that Senator Obama chose to remove his name from the ballot in Michigan. That was his right. But we should not rob you of your voices because of it." Perhaps Mrs. Clinton would consider a compromise--say, halving the delegations, Republican-style? Never: "The Democratic party must count these votes, and they should count them exactly as they were cast." That settles that.

Clinton, it seems, is setting the stage for a showdown. At the end of her speech, she asked the crowd to visit her Web site and "join the 300,000 Americans" who've already signed up to petition the DNC. (Explains the "HillaryClinton.com" podium.) Meanwhile, the Rules Committee is scheduled to resolve the Florida and Michigan dispute on May 31--and, seeing as its members have already told the media that they will mete out some form of punishment, Clinton won't get the full delegations she's demanding. We'll see then if that's good enough for the candidate and her crew--or if her last crusade will simply continue, with no end in sight.

By Andrew Romano, Newsweek, May 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton has vowed to stay in the game, but some critics contend she is looking to change the rules.

The New York senator's resounding victory in the Kentucky primary Tuesday let "the naysayers and skeptics" know that she was still very much a candidate, she said.

She will remain in the race, but the viability of her candidacy may depend on the outcome of a meeting of Democratic Party officials to determine whether and how to count the delegates from Michigan and Florida.

In January, when Michigan and Florida held their primaries, it seemed the party's decision to strip the states of their delegates would serve as a symbolic punishment with little actual influence on the race. At that time, both Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama agreed to play by the party's rules and Obama went so far as to remove his name from the ballot in Michigan.

The race has markedly changed since then and Clinton wants the party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee to overturn its decision when it meets May 30. She says the party should count all of Michigan and Florida's delegates -- 368 in all.

"Some say that counting Florida and Michigan would be changing the rules," she told supporters in Boca Raton, Fla., Wednesday. "I say that not counting Michigan and Florida is changing a central governing rule of this country."

Critics contend that Clinton's push to get the committee to overturn its decision is an attempt to change the rules midgame and a last-ditch effort to save her campaign in the face of mounting support for Obama.

"Now is not the time for our party to have a dialogue about which states should count," she said in Florida.

"We cannot move forward as a united party if some members are left out. I want to be sure all 50 states are counted and your delegates are seated at our convention." she said. "Join me in making sure your voices are raised and heard."

Clinton did not always feel so strongly. In the early days of the campaign she said Michigan would not count.

"It's clear," Clinton told New Hampshire Public Radio in the fall, "this election [Michigan is] having is not going to count for anything. I personally did not think it made any difference whether or not my name was on the ballot."

Clinton's fight may ultimately be for naught. It is doubtful that she will win enough pledged delegates and superdelegates to secure the nomination even if Michigan and Florida's delegates are counted.

After Tuesday's primaries in Kentucky and Oregon, Obama gained a majority of the available pledged delegates, a symbolic milestone that may influence many of the undecided superdelegates both candidates need to secure the nomination.

ABC News has crunched the numbers and even with Michigan and Florida included Obama has a significant lead in delegates.

"In the total universe of delegates, there are 311 outstanding: 217 of those are as of yet uncommitted superdelegates, 94 are thus far unallocated pledged delegates from last night's contest in Oregon and the upcoming three contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana," wrote David Chalian, ABC News political director.

Clinton needs 84 percent of all the remaining delegates -- pledged and superdelegates -- to hit 2,026, the magic number needed to lock up the nomination.

Obama needs just 23 percent of all the remaining delegates to hit 2,026. With the current rules for delegate math against her, Clinton has pushed to increase the overall delegate total needed to win up to 2,210, or to instead consider using the popular vote as a metric.

Obama leads in the popular vote if Michigan and Florida are excluded from the count. He also leads in popular votes if Florida is added.

Clinton, however, has more popular votes if all the states, including Michigan and Florida, are included in the total.

But Obama did not campaign in Michigan and his name was removed from the ballot before the race.

The Democratic Party would not be convening a meeting to resolve the issue if not for Clinton, said ABC News consultant Matthew Dowd.

"The DNC [Democratic National Committee] is considering changing the rules, and they wouldn't be changing the rules unless she wanted them to meet and discuss it. She obviously wants to see the rules changed. Her staff should have set up a campaign that worked within the confines of the current rules," he said. "It is as if Barack Obama is on the 99-yard line and in the final moments of the game Clinton wants the football field extended from 100 to 120 yards."

Many of Clinton's advisers are former party insiders, including Terry McAuliffe, her campaign's chairman and former party chairman, who helped make the rule in the first place.

"What is amazing to me is that she has got a camp filled with DNC operatives. These are the people who essentially created the rules," Dowd said. "She has been in the game a long time. It's not as if she's new to this and didn't know better. Her campaign is run by the insiders who have been running the party for the past 16 years."

For his part, Obama has tried to strike a conciliatory tone, careful not to prematurely declare victory or alienate Clinton's key supporters -- women and working-class whites.

Last year, the Democrats barred Florida and Michigan from having their votes counted after they scheduled primaries in January, despite being instructed not to vote until Feb. 5 or later.

Michigan and Florida lost all their delegates to the national convention, and all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in the two states, stripping them of all the influence they were trying to build by voting early.

It appears now that when the committee meets May 30, a compromise will be reached, in which a portion of the delegates from both states or, more likely, just Florida will be awarded to the candidates.

By RUSSELL GOLDMAN, ABC News, May 22, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama detoured from the primary campaign to plead for party unity and criticize Republican John McCain in Florida as Hillary Clinton campaigned there to press her case that the nomination race isn't over.

Contests yesterday in Oregon and Kentucky gave Obama a majority of pledged delegates to the party's August convention in Denver and brought him to within 64 delegates of clinching the Democratic presidential nod. Now the Illinois senator is trying to rally Democrats for the general election battle against McCain.

"We are at the threshold of being able to obtain this nomination,'' Obama told a Tampa crowd.

Clinton is vowing to keep fighting for the nomination and stepping up her attempts to have the results counted from the January Michigan and Florida primaries. Both states were penalized by the party for holding their contests early.

The two candidates split last night's primaries, with Clinton getting a 36-point win in Kentucky and Obama winning in Oregon by 17 percentage points. Obama has built up an almost insurmountable lead over Clinton in delegates who will decide the nomination.

Obama has 1,962 delegates, according to an Associated Press tally, putting him 64 delegates shy of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination. The results from yesterday's primaries left Clinton with 1,779 delegates, or 247 short.

Gaining Superdelegates

Obama also continues to pick up superdelegates. He's gotten eight so far this week, including West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd on May 19 and Connecticut Representative Joseph Courtney today. That brings his superdelegate total to 308.5, compared with Clinton's 280.5.

David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, said it's "very likely'' that Obama will have enough pledged delegates and superdelegates to sew up the nomination by June 3, when the primaries end.

He also is gathering endorsements from groups that are part of the traditional Democratic coalition.

The United Mine Workers of America, representing 105,000 active and retired coal miners and other workers in states such as West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Indiana, endorsed Obama today. UMW spokesman Phil Smith said, "The campaign has come down to Senator Obama and Senator McCain.''

Counting Votes

Clinton campaign Chairman Terence AcAuliffe told reporters today that they are pressing the roughly 200 remaining undeclared superdelegates, party leaders and officeholders, to stay on the sidelines until the final primaries on June 3.

Clinton contends the nominee needs 2,210 delegates, rather than the 2,026 under the current rules, by counting the Florida and Michigan delegations.

"I believe the Democratic Party must count these votes,'' Clinton said at a senior citizens center in Boca Raton.

At a later event she recalled the 2000 election in which a dispute over recounting votes in Florida led to a 36-day delay in settling the presidential election between former Vice President Al Gore and then-Texas Governor George W. Bush. It ended with the U.S. Supreme Court voting 5-4 to block further recounts, which gave the state, and the election, to Bush.

"We all remember 2000. That was a shameful episode in American history,'' Clinton said in Sunrise.

Neither candidate campaigned in the two states after agreeing with the penalties imposed by the Democratic National Committee last year. Obama took his name off the Michigan ballot, a move that Clinton said today shouldn't "negate the choice of all those who turned out to cast their ballots.''

Rules Resolution

The Democratic Party's rules committee is scheduled to meet May 31 to try to resolve the controversy over how to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.

Axelrod, in an interview today with the National Public Radio "All Things Considered'' program, said the Obama campaign is "open to compromise'' to settle the dispute.

"That may include us yielding more delegates than perhaps we would have,'' he said.

Obama and McCain again today exchanged barbs. In Tampa, Obama contrasted McCain's introduction in 1996 of a measure to prohibit campaigns from hiring lobbyists with recent resignations of McCain aides because of the lobbying ties.

"I'll tell you that John McCain then would be pretty disappointed with John McCain now,'' Obama said.

McCain Response

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds issued a statement afterward saying Obama has his own links to lobbyists.

"In Senator Obama's world, lobbyists can raise money and advise his campaign on policy issues, their families can contribute but supposedly they have no role,'' Bounds said.

Obama also is concentrating on unifying the party and winning over diehard Clinton supporters, including women and blue-collar workers. Those voters mostly have gone to Clinton, 60, in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia and bolstered her margin in Kentucky.

In Tampa, Obama offered praise for Clinton and promised the party would be united in November.

"Senator Clinton has run an outstanding campaign and she deserves our admiration, our respect, because she has set the standard. She has broken through barriers and will open up opportunity for a lot of people including my two young daughters,'' Obama said to applause.

By James Rowley and Julianna Goldman, Bloomberg, May 21, 2008

There is a ceasefire in the Democratic presidential battle, but Barack Obama is still waiting for Hillary Clinton to surrender.

He proclaims that he is "within reach" of victory, confident that time, money and the remorseless mathematical logic of his delegate lead will make her lingering resistance futile.

Although he lost Kentucky's primary on Tuesday by a landslide 35-point margin - confirming his weakness among white voters in the conservative Appalachian region - Mr Obama comfortably won the whiter but more liberal state of Oregon in the Pacific North West.

He now has a majority of the party's elected delegates and, by most counts, needs just a few dozen more votes at the convention to be certain of clinching the nomination.

Kentucky voters ignored the persistent notion that U.S. Sen. Barack Obama will be the Democratic presidential nominee by overwhelmingly supporting U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton Tuesday night, sending the primary race on to three final contests.

Clinton overwhelmingly defeated Obama by more than 30 points. And with an upbeat resolve, she pledged to keep her campaign going in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.

"This continues to be a tough fight and I have fought it the only way I know how: By never giving up and never giving in," she said at her victory speech at Louisville's Marriott Hotel Downtown. "That's why I'm going to keep making our case until we have a nominee whoever she may be."

The consolation prize for Obama, though, is that he still picked up enough of Kentucky's 51 pledged delegates to pass a key threshold. He now has a majority of pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Democrats in Oregon - where 52 pledged delegates are up for grabs - also cast their ballots by mail Tuesday and were expected to extend Obama's edge.

"With the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people," Obama told a crowd in Iowa, the state that propelled him to his first win in its January caucuses. "You have put us in reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America."

That leaves Clinton with one avenue to the presidency - wooing enough of the 200-some still undecided superdelegates - party leaders and elected officials who can vote for the candidate of their choice at the Democratic National Convention regardless of the outcome of their state primaries. Obama also needs a chunk of that group to reach the threshold of 2,026 delegates to secure the nomination.

But even high-profile Obama backers in Kentucky said they didn't begrudge Clinton pushing on.

"I think she ought to stay in it," said Rep. John Yarmuth of Louisville, a Kentucky superdelegate supporting Obama. "That's what I would recommend Sen. Obama do if he were on the other side of the equation. She is handling things exactly the right way - she's campaigning as hard as she can but she's not attacking Sen. Obama."

In effect, Kentucky and Oregon have decided very little, political observers said.

"Even a huge loss in Kentucky by Obama isn't going to force him off his path to the nomination," said Nathan Gonzales, political director for the Rothenberg Report political report. "And Sen. Clinton needs something more seismic to happen outside Kentucky's borders."

Meanwhile, Republican Sen. John McCain cruised to victory in Kentucky. But even though McCain has been the GOP's presumptive nominee since March, he received less than three-quarters of the vote. About 5 percent remained uncommitted and the rest were split among other Republicans, such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, whose names remained on the ballot.

But most of Tuesday's focus was on the Democratic primary as nearly 40 percent of the registered voters in that party turned out to hand Clinton a wide victory on the heels of her landslide 41-point in West Virginia.

"Potentially, it buys Hillary a bit more time, nationally," said Joe Gershtenson, director of the Center for Kentucky History and Politics at Eastern Kentucky University. "A big victory here after the convincing victory in West Virginia, delays some of the flow of superdelegates to Obama. Maybe they say, 'OK she's won the right to see this thing to the end, to the South Dakota and Montana primaries.'"

Clinton clung to that hope and repeated the campaign's mantra that she has won potential swing states in the general election, such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana.

"I say to all the superdelegates around the nation: Think! Think!'" said Jerry Lundergan, Clinton's campaign chairman in Kentucky. "She is the only one who can get the electoral vote in November."

Kentucky's results broke down largely as expected and consistently with other states in the region. Clinton swept rural areas and Obama won only in Jefferson and Fayette Counties, home to the two largest cities of Louisville and Lexington.

"Sen. Obama had to run the totals up in Louisville, had to run the totals up in Kenton County and Lexington - I think Sen. Obama has done very well in college towns," said Jonathan Hurst, the campaign's Kentucky political director.

Obama won Fayette County by 6 points, 51.4 percent to 45.5 percent, and in Louisville by 7 points.

On the other hand, Clinton dominated across the rest of the state, even in other large population centers, such as the suburbs of Cincinnati in Northern Kentucky and key western Kentucky cities of Hopkinsville and Owensboro.

She garnered more than 90 percent of the vote in Eastern Kentucky's Pike and Floyd counties, where more than 26,000 Democrats voted.

"That's pretty astounding," said Gershtenson. "Those are numbers you'd expect to see when an incumbent is running against a relative nobody."

Obama hardly campaigned personally in the Bluegrass State, appearing just once this spring at a rally last week in Louisville that drew 8,000 people and forced organizers to turn away more than 2,000 others. But he ran several commercials and opened 16 statewide offices.

Meanwhile, Clinton and her family - former President Bill Clinton and former first daughter Chelsea Clinton - barnstormed the state for two weeks, culminating with a four-day tour by Hillary Clinton that took her from far Western Kentucky near the Mississippi River to the Appalachian city of Prestonsburg.

Clinton thanked her Kentucky supporters and the state for its hospitality.

"It's not just Kentucky bluegrass that's music to my ears, it's the sound of your overwhelming vote of confidence even in the face of very tough odds," she said in her victory speech.

Yarmuth said Obama's gains in delegates should assure him the nomination.

"The way the superdelegates are breaking, he's in the same place that Sen. McCain is as the presumptive nominee of his party," Yarmuth said.

But some signals from Kentucky show that, if that were the case, Obama would start in a hole to McCain.

The GOP senator from Arizona leads Obama by 25 percentage points, according to a Herald-Leader/WKYTKentucky Poll taken of 600 likely general election voters between May 7 and May 9.

Also potentially troubling for Obama is that a companion survey of 500 Democrats showed one third of Clinton supporters claimed they would vote for McCain in November if Obama is the nominee.

State Sen. Denise Harper Angel, D-Louisville, said she doesn't believe Kentucky will be in McCain's column, no matter who the Democrats pick.

"McCain hasn't been connected to (President) Bush here yet," said Angel, a Clinton supporter. "But once there is a Democratic nominee and there are just two candidates to focus on, McCain will be saddled with every horrible thing that Bush has done to this state and to this country."

But Gershtenson said he doubts the Obama campaign will be counting on Kentucky's eight electoral votes.

"It's going to be a huge, huge mountain to climb for Obama here," he said.

By RYAN ALESSI, McClatchy Newspapers, May 21, 2008

Rebuffing associates who have suggested that she end her candidacy, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has made it clear to her camp in recent days that she will stay in the race until June because she believes she can still be the nominee - and, barring that, so she can depart with some final goals accomplished.

Mrs. Clinton has disagreed with suggestions, made directly to her by a few friends recently, that her continued candidacy was deepening splits within the Democratic Party and damaging Senator Barack Obama's chances of emerging as a formidable nominee. She has also disputed the notion that, by staying in, she was unintentionally fostering a racial divide with white voters in some states overwhelmingly supporting her.

Rather, in private conversations and in interviews, Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight, a point some of her supporters have made for months. Advisers say that continuing her candidacy is partly a means to show her supporters - especially young women - that she is not a quitter and will not be pushed around.

Campaigning in New Hampshire and Indiana this year, Mrs. Clinton endured taunts from passers-by who questioned her abilities because she is a woman and mocked her husband's affair with a White House intern. Yet Mrs. Clinton has also benefited from the strong support of white voters in many states, including some who have said that race was a factor in their support.

Campaigning with his wife in Kentucky on Tuesday, former President Bill Clinton also weighed in, saying he believed there had been "moments of gender bias" in the campaign, though he added that he thought people had become more comfortable with the idea of a woman in the White House.

And in her victory speech in Louisville, Ky., on Tuesday night, Mrs. Clinton made a pointed appeal, telling her supporters she would keep campaigning until there was a Democratic nominee - "whoever she may be."

Mrs. Clinton is also focused on some tangible goals by staying in the race: she believes that racking up more victories, delegates and votes will give her and her supporters more leverage this month at a Democratic National Committee rules meeting to advocate for seating the delegates from the unofficial primaries in Florida and Michigan.

"There is not yet a Democratic nominee, and she will continue until every voter has a say in the process, including Florida and Michigan," said Guy Cecil, the campaign's political director.

Referring to the three remaining primaries, Mr. Cecil said: "We have thousands of volunteers in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico who are making calls and knocking on doors to get the vote out. The people they are talking to want to participate and be heard."

Mrs. Clinton's advisers also say that her popularity could lead Mr. Obama to fold some of her policy positions - like universal health insurance - into his platform, though they discounted the notion that her staying in the race was part of a larger bargaining strategy.

While Mrs. Clinton believes that winning the nomination is a long shot at this point, she is also staying in the race because, in her experience, electoral politics can be a chaotic and unpredictable enterprise, scandals can emerge from nowhere, and Mr. Obama's candidacy could still suffer a self-inflicted or unexpected wound. Picking up more primary votes and superdelegates could only strengthen her position if the party wants or needs to find an alternative to Mr. Obama.

As for concerns that her continued campaign might exacerbate party divisions, Mrs. Clinton is convinced that if and when she quits, her camp would quickly coalesce around Mr. Obama, advisers say - so much so that any Democratic ill will would fade within days.

"I think in the end, when South Dakota and Montana go last and have their final result, she will sit back and see whether a win can be achieved or not - and if not, she is a class act and will do the class thing and get on board with the Democratic ticket," said Jay Jacobs, a Democratic leader on Long Island and a superdelegate and top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Jacobs said he believed that Mrs. Clinton could still win the nomination, and that she should fight on to June if she believed she could win.

Other associates disagreed. One longtime friend and adviser, Roger Altman, an official in the Clinton Treasury Department, recently urged Mrs. Clinton to consider leaving the race, people familiar with their conversation said. He said that racial divisions were worsening and that her huge white vote in West Virginia last week could make it harder to view Mr. Obama as a unifying figure.

Mrs. Clinton does not believe that a racial split will be a legacy of the Democratic nomination fight, her aides say - especially if Mr. Obama wins, as he could point to victories in states with largely white populations, like Colorado, Iowa and Washington.

Some Clinton aides say she is expecting a particularly big vote on June 1 in Puerto Rico, given her strong support among Hispanics. Howard Wolfson, her communications director, said campaign aides were "optimistic" about Puerto Rico.

Mrs. Clinton also wants to increase her popular vote total in the final three primaries in hopes that if a small margin separates her and Mr. Obama, it may be enough to sway some uncommitted superdelegates to support her at the last minute.

"Superdelegates who are committed to her are telling her to stay the course," said Harold Ickes, a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton. "And there are some uncommitted superdelegates who are for her but not ready to come out - and they want her to stay the course and see this through."

Mr. Ickes added, "And there are other uncommitted superdelegates who want to wait until June to judge the strongest candidate."

Clinton aides insisted that Mrs. Clinton was not thinking too seriously about positioning herself as Mr. Obama's running mate. They say she knows, from her husband's experience, that a decision about a running mate involves many factors.

But amassing a strong popular vote, and going out on some high notes, would help Mrs. Clinton emerge from the long nomination battle on better footing, aides say. And making herself an appealing vice-presidential prospect - or setting herself up to run again in 2012, if Mr. Obama should lose, or perhaps 2016 - is not altogether out of the question.

Mr. Jacobs, the Clinton fund-raiser and superdelegate, said he believed that Mrs. Clinton was not staying in the race as a way to put pressure on Mr. Obama to help pay off her campaign debt should she drop out. Her debt exceeds $20 million. Mr. Jacobs said she was now spending so much money that she would lower her final debt by ending her campaign immediately.

And he predicted that the Clintons would have no problem raising money to erase the debt - including the $11 million Mrs. Clinton has lent her campaign.

"There will be plenty of people anxious to help them pay everything off," Mr. Jacobs said.

By Patrick Healy, The New York Times, May 21, 2008

WASHINGTON - White voters played a decisive role in Hillary Rodham Clinton's lopsided victory Tuesday in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary. Barack Obama got the victory in more liberal Oregon, where race and the hard-edged rivalry between the two embattled candidates were muted.

Nearly nine in 10 of each state's voters were white, surveys of voters showed, but there the similarities ceased. Kentucky's less educated, less liberal, poorer and more rural population fit the profile of states where Clinton has done well, while Oregon's better schooled, more affluent and urban residents more resembled those that have delivered for him all year.

Even as Obama edges toward his party's nomination, Kentucky underscored his ongoing struggle to chip away at Clinton's dominance among whites - including the better educated ones who have been a tossup group between the two rivals.

Sixty-three percent of white college graduates backed Clinton in Kentucky, according to exit polls of voters. Only in Arkansas have more favored Clinton among the 33 states that have held Democratic primaries in which both candidates competed.

Three quarters of whites who have not completed college - a bulwark of Clinton support this year - also backed the New York senator. She has seldom done better this year with those blue-collar white voters.

Just 45 percent of whites in Kentucky said they would vote for Obama in a matchup with John McCain in the general election - underscoring a challenge facing Democrats in the fall campaign.

Racial attitudes were also striking. About one in five whites in Kentucky said race played a role in choosing their candidate - on par with results in other Southern states. Nearly nine in 10 of that group backed Clinton - the highest proportion yet among the 29 states where that question has been asked.

Only 29 percent of whites in the state who said race was a factor said they would vote for Obama should he oppose McCain in November.

All that contrasted with Oregon, where a majority of voters called themselves liberal.

According to telephone interviews with the state's voters, who cast all their ballots by mail, 57 percent of whites were backing Obama. The Illinois senator and Clinton were evenly dividing working-class whites - those who have not finished college - a group that has decisively stuck with Clinton in most states this year.

In addition, only one in 10 voters in Oregon said the race of the candidates was important, one of the lowest proportions in primary states this year. They were evenly divided between the two Democrats, but heavily backed Obama when he was pitted against McCain.

As the battle for the Democratic nomination finishes its fifth month, there were signs some voters are looking beyond the contest's end.

Just over half in Kentucky said they expect Obama to win the party's nomination - including one in three Clinton backers. In Oregon, three quarters predicted Obama would be nominated, including just over half of those backing Clinton.

Like most states, Kentucky displayed the distaste each candidate's supporters had for the rival contender, underscoring a challenge the party will face in uniting its voters for the fall election.

Only a third of Clinton backers there said they would vote for Obama against McCain. Obama voters seemed more forgiving - seven in 10 said they would vote for Clinton.

Heads seemed cooler in Oregon. There, seven in 10 Clinton backers said Obama would get their vote against the Arizona Republican, while eight in 10 Obama backers said they would support Clinton against McCain.

In Kentucky, just four in 10 Clinton supporters favored picking Obama as running mate should she win the nomination. The same number of Obama backers want Clinton to run as his vice president. The question wasn't asked in Oregon.

Further illustrating the two states' differing perceptions, Clinton was seen by most as more honest than Obama and as the candidate who most shares voters' values in Kentucky. The reverse was true in Oregon.

In Kentucky, Clinton dominated Obama across virtually all categories of voters, winning strongly among men, women and whites, as well as people of virtually all ages, income and education levels. Obama took nine in 10 blacks.

In Oregon, the only groups Clinton controlled were people over age 65 and those earning less than $30,000 a year - voters who have been loyal to her almost all year.

Kentucky voters saying John Edwards' endorsement last week of Obama was important were split evenly between the two contenders, while those saying it was insignificant backed Clinton heavily. The question wasn't asked in Oregon.

The Kentucky data came from an exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks conducted in 30 precincts in the state. The data was based on 1,407 people voting in Kentucky's Democratic contest, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Oregon figures came from telephone interviews the companies conducted of 1,201 people voting in that state's contest, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 points. The interviews were conducted from May 12-18.

By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press, May 21, 2008

The two states that voted Tuesday were tailor-made for the Democratic Party's two candidates. Barack Obama's sizable victory was due to the more liberal, independent, upper-class and West Coast electorate of Oregon. Hillary Clinton's whopping victory was possible thanks to the more moderate, more blue-collar, Upper South electorate of Kentucky.

Clinton earned the support of eight in ten blue-collar whites in Kentucky, about 20 percentage points higher than she did in Indiana two weeks back. Clinton even won a majority of blue-collar whites in Oregon, despite Obama winning the state with the votes of six in ten whites overall -- a rare feat for the Illinois senator.

Almost half of Oregon voters were college graduates; only about 35 percent of them backed Clinton. Two thirds of voters in Kentucky lacked a college degree; only one in four of them backed Obama.

Kentucky voters were also 20 percentage points more likely than Oregonians to say the economy was the "most important issue." And nearly six in ten Kentucky voters supported suspending the gas tax while more than six in ten Oregon voters thought it was a "bad idea."

Nearly six in ten Oregon voters said they were liberal, about 30 percentage points more than in Kentucky. Oregon's unusually large liberal electorate is similar to Vermont and Utah, where Obama also won a strong majority of whites.

Obama won nine in ten blacks in Kentucky, though Clinton carried the state by some 35 percentage points. Clinton, like last week in West Virginia, won fully seven in ten whites in the state. Her more common ceiling with whites outside the Deep South has been closer to six in ten, as it was in Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and nationwide on Super Tuesday.

College-educated whites in Kentucky again supported Clinton by a two-to-one margin, continuing Clinton's recent dominance with a group that once split between the two candidates.

Clinton had such strong support among whites in Kentucky that the gender gap was nearly nonexistent. Clinton also won 65 percent of whites under age 30 in Kentucky, a bloc that until last week Obama traditionally split in his poorer showings.

In Oregon, like other more liberal states with small black populations, race appeared less of a factor. Obama won a remarkable six in ten white men in Oregon, and nearly split white women and white voters age 60 and older.

Obama only narrowly won white Democrats overall in Oregon. But white independents supported him there by a two-to-one ratio. Clinton won three in four white Democrats in Kentucky but she only won white independents there by about 10 percentage points.

White independents constituted a fifth of voters in Oregon, twice as many as in Kentucky.

Kentucky's contest served as yet another reminder that the Democrats' divide remains deeper than demographics. As Obama claimed Democrats "have never been" more united -- in a speech marking his win of a majority of pledged delegates -- nearly six in ten Kentucky Democratic voters said they would not be satisfied if Obama won the nomination. Should Clinton lose, an unusually high one in three Kentucky Democrats said they would vote for Republican John McCain.

The Associated Press and the television networks conducted the polls in both states. Kentucky's results came from a standard exit poll. But in Oregon, all interviews were conducted by phone May 12-18 to compensate for the high number of votes cast by mail.

By David Paul Kuhn, The Politico, May 21, 2008

LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- As she continues to press on, Hillary Clinton's campaign is less about health care, experience or solutions than a factor no one would have guessed at the beginning: electability.

"We have to select a nominee who is best positioned to win in November," she told her supporters here after scoring an overwhelming win in the Bluegrass State.

Emphasizing the importance of a Democrat winning the White House, she said, "that's why I"m still running and that's why you're still voting."

Both former president Bill Clinton and his wife now spend much of their stump speeches delivering complicated electoral math lessons on how Hillary Clinton will be a better general election candidate than Obama, citing her appeal in Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, based on primary results in those states.

In a speech in Kentucky on Monday, Clinton even cited an estimate by Karl Rove's consulting firm that suggested she would be the favorite in more states than Obama in a general election.

"In every single election map I have seen she is beating Senator McCain handily and she is the only Democrat who is doing that," the ex-president said in Lexington on Monday.

The argument, while reflecting a campaign where a group of Democratic Party officials will cast the final votes, show how far this race has come. Clinton entered the race as the candidate most popular among Democrats but with party activists worried she could not win enough swing voters to win a general election.

The former president's arugment is also based on a host of assumptions that do not appear to be convincing to superdelegates, who are moving toward Obama in droves.

By Perry Bacon Jr., The Washington Post, May 20, 2008

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Hillary Rodham Clinton cast her victory in Kentucky as an overwhelming vote of confidence Tuesday and said she's still running for president not to demonstrate that she's tough but to ensure that Democrats retake the White House.

"This continues to be a tough fight, and I have fought it the only way I know how - with determination, by never giving up and never giving in," Clinton told supporters in Kentucky. Oregon also voted Tuesday, though, and Barack Obama won there, giving him a majority of the delegates elected in all 56 primaries and caucuses combined.

Clinton said she has pressed on in the race "not because I've wanted to demonstrate my toughness, but because I believe passionately that for the sake of our country, the Democrats must take back the White House and end Republican rule. ... That's why I'm still running and that's why you're still voting."

In her lopsided Kentucky victory, Clinton defeated Obama among voters of all age groups and incomes, the college-educated and non-college-educated, self-described liberals, moderates and conservatives, according to interviews with voters. Obama did far better in Oregon, where a majority of voters called themselves liberal. He was winning nearly six in 10 whites, and he and Clinton were were evenly dividing the votes of working-class whites.

With just two weeks and three contests left in the primary season, it is doubtful that Clinton can close the delegate gap with Obama. While she has collected a number of wins in late primaries, Obama keeps gaining on her in the all-important race for convention delegates.

But the former first lady maintains that she still sees a path to victory by winning over the party leaders and elected officials known as superdelegates, whose support will be needed for either candidate to be clinch the nomination.

"Neither Senator Obama nor I will have reached that magic number when the voting ends on June 3," she said. "And so, our party will have a tough choice to make - who's ready to lead our party at the top of our ticket, who is ready to defeat Senator McCain in the swing states and among swing voters."

The New York senator hopes a resounding win like Tuesday's victory in Kentucky will help convince superdelegates that she is more viable as a general election candidate. It has become increasingly difficult argument to make, however, and Obama has slowly begun to play the role of the inevitable rival to Republican John McCain.

Obama and McCain have largely ignored Clinton in recent days as they clashed over foreign policy, and Obama's campaign schedule is starting to include more stops in general election battleground states.

Clinton has argued that if the results of disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida are counted, she leads Obama in the popular vote. Clinton won both contests but the results were voided because the votes took place in January in violation of Democratic Party rules. The Democratoc National Committee's rules committee meets May 31 to consider its options on the Michigan and Florida delegations. Clinton has said both should be seated at the convention in August.

While campaigning in Kentucky and Oregon over the past several days, Clinton has been increasingly forceful in making her pitch to include the disputed results. She was expected to turn up the volume on Wednesday during several appearances in south Florida, and her campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, said she was likely to travel to Michigan to do the same there.

Her husband, the former president, said at a campaign stop in Louisville on Tuesday that voiding the Michigan and Florida primary votes "violates our values and is dumb politics."

By SARA KUGLER, Associated Press, May 20, 2008

Last summer, I shook Sen. Hillary Clinton's hand and gave her my business card when she met with the Trotter Group of black columnists. I wished her well in her presidential bid.

Ever since then I've received e-mails from her, Bill Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea Clinton, with video links promoting Hillary Clinton's historic run for the Oval Office. A half-dozen arrived last week.

I hadn't replied until now.

Dear Sen. Hillary Clinton:

I have greatly appreciated all of the e-mails from you and your family. I have only two words to share with you about your valiant quest to become the 44th president of the United States and the first woman to hold the highest office in the land:

Don't quit.

A ton of pundits and political operatives have asked you to give up. Ignore them.

They have asked you to step aside for the good of the Democratic Party and let Sen. Barack Obama stand as the presumptive nominee. His rise to that post would be historic, too, making him the first African American to go that far.

The pundits and political operatives repeatedly have professed that you would be doing more harm than good to the party if you don't surrender now. But for all of your supporters, the country and our way of life, I say don't quit.

It doesn't matter whether women in the United States have seen you in person, heard you in the debates or voted for you in the primaries or not. What matters is every woman who believes in America needs you to stay in the race all the way to the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25-28 in Denver.

Every girl needs you to go the distance. You have come too far to fold now. For every woman's and girl's sake, don't quit.

Men and boys need to witness your perseverance, too, and know that the force of your will is in the hearts and minds of every female. Such drive, determination, duty and character have helped to make this country a superpower.

Even though no woman has been president up to now, every woman has given endless amounts of sweat, blood and true grit to make this nation what it is today. There would be no America if women had folded under the strain of childbirth or if women hadn't endured the misery of scratching out a living from the land, traveling across the vastness of our countryside. Women have been treated like chattel and second-class citizens, working in sweat shops, remaining in the shadows endlessly serving others and maintaining the home front while their sons come home from the wars. Still, women make only 77 cents for every dollar that men earn. Don't quit. Our men and boys need to see you go the distance.

Many other countries have had women leaders - Germany, Israel, Argentina, India, the Philippines, Great Britain and Pakistan. For the sake of women and men all over the world, don't quit.

After eight, long, horribly regressive years of George W. Bush as president, the world needs to see a better image of America. They need to see how progressive the people of this country truly are. For their sake and ours, don't quit.

People need to see a real convention with all of the political wrangling and elbowing. So many conventions in the last 30 years have been neatly staged.

The power elite control the outcome. Give the convention back to the people. They need to see politics being made like sausage from the squeal to the plate. For America's sake and our way of life, don't quit.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Exit polls of voters show Hillary Rodham Clinton performed strongly among whites in Tuesday's presidential primary in Kentucky. They also show how fierce her rivalry against Barack Obama has become among Democrats.

Preliminary results from the Kentucky exit polls show Clinton winning seven in 10 white votes, including three-quarters of whites who have not finished college. That group has consistently backed her strongly, even as Obama edges toward winning the nomination.

In addition, only a third of Clinton's supporters said they would vote for Obama should he face Republican John McCain in the general election. And just four in 10 of each candidate's backers want them to pick their rival as a running mate.

The Associated Press, May 20, 2008

There were no surprises in Tuesday's primary results. Sen. Hillary Clinton won big in Kentucky, defeating Sen. Barack Obama by 35 percentage points. Obama easily prevailed in Oregon.

Obama also passed a campaign milestone, winning a majority of pledged delegates.

Now only three Democratic primaries remain. Clinton vowed to contest every one of them during her address to jubilant supporters in Louisville on Tuesday evening.

Calling the race for the nomination "close," Clinton said, "This continues to be a tough fight, and I have fought it the only way I know how: with determination, with never giving up and never giving in."

There aren't enough delegates left in the upcoming contests in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana for Clinton to close Obama's lead. But Clinton said that neither she nor Obama can get enough delegates out of the next three primaries to secure the nomination.

So she said that the party leaders known as superdelegates "will have a tough choice to make: Who is ready to lead our party at the top of the ticket, who ready to defeat [presumptive Republican nominee] Sen. [John] McCain .... Who is ready on day one to lead?"

Obama Declares the Nomination 'Within Reach'

Obama now assumes he'll be the Democratic Party's answer to Clinton's questions. If he had been sidling up to a general election campaign over the past couple of weeks, he plunged in with both feet on Tuesday night.

Anticipating his victory in Oregon, Obama declared that he has won a majority of pledged delegates, and that this "put us within reach" of the Democratic presidential nomination.

His audience was not in Oregon, however, but in front of the statehouse in Des Moines, Iowa. His surprising victory in the state in the January caucuses gave early validation to his candidacy against better-known rivals Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who recently endorsed Obama. Also, Iowa could be an important swing state in November.

And with November in mind, Obama went after the presumptive republican nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain. He tried to hang unpopular President Bush around McCain's neck like an anchor.

"The Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans that once bothered John McCain's conscience are now his only economic policy," Obama said.

The Illinois senator offered a similar line of attack on foreign policy, energy policy and health care.

"I will leave it up to Sen. McCain to explain to the American people whether his policies and positions represent long-held convictions or Washington calculations," said Obama, "but the one thing they don't represent is change."

Candidates Call for Unity

In her speech in Louisville earlier in the evening, Clinton followed what has become her practice lately, speaking of Obama respectfully rather than critically.

She made a pitch for Democrats to come together in November, saying she would work "as hard as I can to elect a Democratic president this fall."

"It's a little bit of a cold war going on," Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne told NPR, "but not a hot war any more. She knows that her future in the party ... depends on coming to Obama's defense this fall."

Likewise in Des Moines, Obama went out of his way to praise Hillary Clinton not only as a worthy opponent, but as a historic one.

He called Clinton "one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office." He congratulated her on her victory in Kentucky, adding, "No matter how this primary ends, Sen. Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and your daughters will come of age. And for that we are grateful to her."

The Final Stages

Both Clinton and Obama pledged to campaign hard in the remaining primaries in Puerto Rico (June 1), Montana and South Dakota (both on June 3). But first, they're both campaigning in Florida.

Florida looms large in Clinton's argument to Democratic superdelegates that she leads in at least one metric: the popular vote. The Sunshine State went for Clinton, but it was stripped of its delegates for moving its primary into January in violation of national Democratic Party rules.

Likewise Michigan, which also held an unsanctioned primary, which Clinton won. Obama's name didn't even appear on the Michigan ballot. The New York senator maintains that she'd be ahead in the popular vote if the tallies from those two states were counted. She also has long called on the Democratic Party to forgive Florida and Michigan and seat all the delegates.

Obama has a different task in Florida. In deference to the Democratic party's sanctions, none of the candidates campaigned there. So he has to introduce himself to voters in this important swing state and mend fences in advance of the general election.

Exit Polls

According to Associated Press exit polls, Kentucky had one of the least liberal electorates of any Democratic contest this year, with only about one-third of voters identifying themselves as liberals. About two-thirds of Kentucky voters said the economy was the top issue. As usual, Clinton ran well with older voters, rural voters, those with lower incomes and those with less education.

That held true in Oregon as well, where voters were polled by phone because of that state's vote-by-mail primary. Oregon differed from Kentucky in a number of areas. For example, 6 in 10 Oregon Democrats identified themselves as liberal, and fewer than half picked the economy as the top issue.

As in previous contests, Obama tended to appeal most strongly to young, urban, wealthier and better-educated voters. That's a demographic that describes Oregon much more than Kentucky, though voters in Louisville and some of Kentucky's other urban areas favored Obama by a few points.

Nearly all of Obama's supporters in Kentucky and Oregon believed he will win the nomination. Half of Clinton's voters in Oregon and one-third in Kentucky also think Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

By Ina Jaffe, NPR, May 21, 2008

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton split Tuesday's primaries, and so far today they have split the superdelegates who will likely determine who gets the nomination.

Representative Joe Courtney of Connecticut has announced for Obama, The Hartford Courant reported on its website today. Courtney represents the only congressional district that Clinton won in the state's Feb. 5 primary, so he waited longer than the rest of the delegation, the Courant said.

But Craig Bashein of Ohio has thrown in with Clinton, who that state's primary in March.

Fewer than 200 of the nearly 800 superdelegates -- party officials and elected officials -- remain undeclared.

While Obama is within 70 delegates of clinching the nomination, there are only 86 pledged delegates at stake in the three remaining contests -- June 1 in Puerto Rico and June 3 in Montana and South Dakota -- so it appears likely he needs superdelegates to go over the top. Clinton is about 250 delegates shy, so definitely needs superdelegates to wrest the nomination.

Obama won handily in Oregon and reached the key benchmark of winning a majority of all pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses -- with three contests remaining.

But Clinton swamped Obama in Kentucky, particularly among the white working-class voters he has had trouble attracting.

By Foon Rhee, The Boston Globe, May 21, 2008

Hillary Clinton does not lack for victories. She has had several recently.

What she lacks is a way to make her victories meaningful. What she lacks is an argument.

What is the game-changing argument that will cause the superdelegates, who will decide the Democratic nomination, to vote for her?

That she has won Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky in the last few weeks? OK, yeah, they know that. They saw that on TV.

That she can win key states in November? Yep, so she says.

That she leads in the popular vote? Well, that depends on how you do the math.

That she continues to win white, working-class voters? Yawn.

Hillary Clinton won a huge victory in Kentucky on Tuesday night, and you know what happens next? Nothing probably. Nothing good. Not for her, anyway. Not if the past is prologue.

Last week, Clinton won West Virginia by an incredible 41 percentage points -- a quadruple landslide! -- and since then Barack Obama has picked up 22 superdelegates and Clinton has picked up four.

And when you are in a place where your victories don't matter, then you are in a very bad place.

The party insiders look at her victories and shrug. They see a different math. They see what Obama sees: a pledged delegate victory that will not be overturned by the superdelegates.

Obama put it in a measured way Tuesday night in his speech from Des Moines. "We have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people," he said, "and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States."

Clinton's victory speech was tough -- almost defiant -- when she promised to continue to campaign "by never giving up and never giving in."

But it also had the elements of concession speech. "No matter what happens, I will work as hard as I can to elect a Democratic president this fall," she said. "We will come together as a party, united by common values and common cause. And when we do, there will be no stopping us. We won't just unite our party, we will unite our country."

Even though Obama won Oregon on Tuesday night, he chose to make his victory speech in Iowa for symbolic reasons: Iowa, the very first contest of the primary campaign season, is where his victory put the first chink in Clinton's "inevitability" armor.

Gordon Fischer, a former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party who had endorsed Obama when he was trailing in the polls last year, told me Tuesday night: "Some candidates under the harsh spotlight and intense scrutiny actually wilt, but let's face it, Obama has grown, and his coalition has grown, but his Iowa win gave him the rocket fuel he needed."

Obama, in his speech near the Iowa state capitol, was extremely gracious to Clinton (though it is easy to be gracious when you've virtually won). "The road here has been long, and that is partly because we've traveled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for this office," Obama said. "No matter how this primary ends, Sen. Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age."

Obama saved his criticism for John McCain. "This year's Republican primary was a contest to see which candidate could out-Bush the other, and that is the contest John McCain won," Obama said, also pointing out that McCain "arrived in Washington nearly three decades ago."

Translation: My opponent is not only as bad as George W. Bush but is really, really old to boot.

Clinton will not drop out because there is no real reason for her to. Why not go down fighting -- or trying to get the vice presidential nod -- especially if you believe you represent the aspirations of millions of women?

"I think a lot of women project their own feelings in their lives on to me," Clinton has said. "Everywhere I go, people say, 'Don't give up, don't give up, stay with this.'"

So she will stay. But, according to a Gallup daily tracking poll released Tuesday, her foundation of support is cracking: "Having previously captured nearly the maximum level of support from black voters, Obama's latest gains have come from a broad spectrum of rank-and-file Democrats. At least for now, he has expanded his position as the preferred candidate of men, young adults and highly educated Democrats, and has erased Clinton's advantages with most of her prior core constituency groups, including women, the less-well-educated and whites."

But will he inherit a party that has been ripped asunder? No, Obama says, it is all good.

"Some may see the millions upon millions of votes cast for each of us as evidence that our party is divided," he said Tuesday night, "but I see it as proof that we have never been more energized."

So let the Republicans be dull. The Democrats will battle on because it is just so gosh-darned exciting!

By Roger Simon, The Politico, May 21, 2008

WASHINGTON - The money tells the tale. Democrat Barack Obama entered May sitting comfortably atop more than $37 million in the bank. Republican John McCain had nearly $22 million in hand. Hillary Rodham Clinton, once the Democrats' presidential front-runner, was in the red.

Obama, moving closer to his party's nomination, let his fundraising slow only slightly last month and collected $31 million. Clinton raised more than $21 million, but was saddled with debts. And McCain, in his best monthly performance yet, hauled in $18 million.

Financially, the month tracked the three candidates' political fortunes. Clinton beat Obama in Pennsylvania on April 22 and saw a $10 million surge in donations in a 24-hour period. But money and the delegates needed for the nomination still flowed primarily to Obama.

McCain, lacking rivals and assured the GOP nomination, spent little and worked on consolidating his fundraising base.

The three candidates filed their financial reports Tuesday with the Federal Election Commission.

Together, the reports reinforce what is increasingly evident in the campaign: Obama and McCain are equipping themselves to confront each other, while Clinton, risking a personal financial hit, is quixotically hanging on to the end.

In a continued expansion of Obama's fundraising network, his campaign reported nearly 1.5 million donors since he started raising money for his presidential race. With such extraordinary numbers behind him, Obama appears to have access to a continuing flow of money, though his April total was his smallest haul this year. Overall, he has raised close to $265 million in his White House bid.

Obama spent $36 million in April, half of it on advertising. For the first time, his spending exceeded his monthly fundraising. Clinton, too, spent more than she raised. Both vigorously competed in Pennsylvania and he also spent heavily during April in Indiana and North Carolina, which held their primaries on May 6. Obama lost Indiana narrowly and won in North Carolina.

But Clinton reported only about $8 million cash on hand for the primary. (She has $22 million set aside for the general election that she can't use.) She also reported $19.5 million in debts, including $10 million she has lent her campaign. Even without the loan, Clinton was in negative cash position. The loan amount also did not include an extra $1.4 million she put into her campaign in May.

Clinton did not add to her debt to vendors, who include such campaign consultants as Mark Penn and Mandy Grunwald. But she had to ramp up her spending, with a majority of it devoted to traveling and getting her message to voters. She spent more than $9 million on ads alone.

Still that paled in comparison to Obama. He spent more than $20 million on ads, including nearly $2 million on advertising on the Internet.

Clinton campaign chairman Terry McCauliffe said donors continued to contribute though the Internet and that she had fundraisers planned this week.

"We have the money to play in all the remaining states," he said. He said Clinton offered to put in more of her own money but "we have not had to use it."

McCain's finances are an important marker as he moves into direct competition with Obama, who has shown himself to be a fundraiser without equal. McCain has been taking advantage of his status as the all-but-nominated Republican candidate, embracing the big donors from his former GOP rivals and putting allies in charge of raising money at the Republican National Committee.

The RNC, which is the party's main political arm, had nearly 10 times more cash on hand than its Democratic counterpart at the end of April, a notable GOP advantage in what has otherwise been Democratic fundraising dominance this election.

The committee on Tuesday reported having $40.1 million in the bank. The Democratic National Committee had $4.4 million.

The RNC raised $15.7 million in April compared to $4.7 million by the DNC.

Significantly, the financial disparity comes in a presidential election year when the candidates rely on the parties to mobilize voters and promote their message. Overall this year, the RNC has raised more than $52 million, the DNC has raised more than $22 million.

McCain has put his own team at the RNC to operate a Victory Fund Committee that is corralling top Republican donors. Earlier this month, McCain and the party raised $7 million at a fundraiser hosted by New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. The proceeds of that event were not included in the RNC's latest report.

Obama has taken his own quiet steps to take over the DNC and assemble a multistate team for the general election, several Democratic officials said Tuesday. With such a team in place, the DNC would be able to tap into Obama's prodigious fundraising.

The DNC has lagged in fundraising for some time, a condition made all the more difficult by the Democrats' protracted presidential primary. Last week, the DNC announced agreements with Obama and Clinton to begin raising money together.

In their Senate and congressional accounts, Democrats were faring much better. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee reported $37.6 million in the bank to the National Republican Senatorial Committee's $19.4 million. The GOP's Senate campaign arm, however, slightly edged the Democrats in fundraising for the first time this election cycle.

Similarly, the National Republican Congressional Committee outraised the Democrats' House campaign committee. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported more than $45 million in the bank to the GOP committee's nearly $7 million.

By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press, May 21, 2008

WASHINGTON - The Democratic presidential race is all but over.

Barring a cataclysmic change of events, Barack Obama will win enough pledged and superdelegates to capture the party's nomination. The only real issue is whether he and rival Hillary Rodham Clinton leave the race with their futures - and their party - intact.

For Obama, that means winning with class so he endears himself to Clinton's supporters - letting her leave the race on her own terms, without gloating or appearing to push her out with any disrespect. And Clinton has to be careful not to damage Obama and make her legacy a weakened Democratic nominee in the fall.

No matter what the New York senator and former first lady wants to do next - angle to be Obama's running mate, make another presidential run or ascend one day to Senate Democratic leader, it's in her interest to leave the 2008 race in a position of strength. She's doing a bang-up job of that.

Even as Obama is steadily climbing toward the 2,026 delegates he needs to secure the nomination - he was within 70 after Tuesday night's split decision in Kentucky and Oregon - Clinton has defeated him in four of the last seven primaries, including big states such as Pennsylvania.

Her decisive victories in Kentucky and West Virginia showed she has a durable base of support, particularly among white, working-class voters and older women. Obama can't just discount those voters as he moves on to the general election.

Clinton said as much in an e-mail thanking supporters Tuesday night.

"The people of Kentucky have declared that this race isn't over yet, and I'm listening to them - and to you," she wrote.

Kentucky Democratic Party Chairwoman Jennifer Moore, one of roughly 200 superdelegates yet to be claimed by either candidate, said the Clintons will always have a loyal following in her state because voters there remember the economic good times of the 1990s.

"Clinton supporters need to get to know Barack Obama, get to understand that he stands for many of the same principles as Senator Clinton," Moore said.

Obama offered his own olive branch Tuesday night, praising Clinton for her pioneering candidacy and acknowledging the millions who have voted for her.

"No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her," the Illinois senator said. "Some may see the millions upon millions of votes cast for each of us as evidence that our party is divided, but I see it as proof that we have never been more energized and united in our desire to take this country in a new direction."

Steve Grossman, a former DNC chairman and Clinton fundraiser, said Obama is "wisely being patient," not pushy, about pursuing Clinton backers.

"The art of the appropriate is not always present in politics," he added. "It means you show respect, keep your distance, and understand what people are going through."

Still, neither candidate has moved flawlessly toward reconciliation.

Even after it was clear Obama was on a path to the nomination, Clinton hasn't been able to resist the occasional jab such as criticizing his health care plan. And in a newspaper interview following her West Virginia win last week, Clinton noted she was beating Obama among "working, hardworking Americans, white Americans" - a characterization that drew widespread criticism. Clinton later said she regretted the comment.

For his part, Obama has taken the risk of appearing to trivialize some of the final primaries, choosing to shadowbox with Republican John McCain in general election swing states rather than focus solely on the remaining Democratic contests. He's already making plans to take over the Democratic National Committee.

"They want to claim victory and push Hillary aside - this is what Bush did to Gore in 2000, and we aren't going to put up with it," said Susie Buell, a top Clinton fundraiser based in San Francisco. "It's wrong and corrupt."

Buell helped launch a new organization, http://www.womencountpac.com, dedicated to giving Clinton's female supporters an avenue to speak out. The group placed full page ads in The New York Times and USA Today proclaiming, "Not so fast: Hillary's voice is our voice, and she is speaking for all of us."

Clinton's advisers are keenly aware that the calls for her to drop from the race are likely to intensify during the 10-day hiatus between Tuesday's primaries and the next contest in Puerto Rico on June 1. But they say there is virtually no chance the former first lady will do so.

They say that she is firmly committed to staying in the race through the South Dakota and Montana primaries June 3 and the meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee May 31, where the situation involving disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida may be resolved.

Clinton was heading to Florida Wednesday to press that case, as was Obama, who is eyeing the state and a crucial general election battleground.

Clinton expects to do well in Puerto Rico on June 1 and her advisers say she will compete actively in South Dakota and Montana even though the three contests will yield just 86 delegates total.

But the numbers aren't as important as the signal each primary will send to her supporters: She's a fighter, not a quitter, and she's got a future. Even after this race is over.

By Nedra Pickler and Beth Fouhy, The Associated Press, May 21, 2008

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Barack Obama stepped to the brink of victory in the Democratic presidential race Tuesday night, defeating Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Oregon primary and moving within 100 delegates of the total he needs to claim the prize at the party convention this summer.

"You have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination," he told cheering supporters in Iowa, the overwhelmingly white state that launched him, a black, first-term senator from Illinois, on his improbable path to victory last January.

Obama lavished praise on Clinton, his rival in a race unlike any other, and accused Republican John McCain of a campaign run by lobbyists.

"You are Democrats who are tired of being divided, Republicans who no longer recognize the party that runs Washington, independents who are hungry for change," he said, speaking to a crowd on the grounds of the Iowa Capitol in Des Moines as well as the millions around the country who will elect the nation's 44th president in November.

Clinton countered with a lopsided win in Kentucky, a victory with scant political value in a race moving inexorably in Obama's direction.

The former first lady vowed to remain in the race, telling supporters, "I'm more than determined than ever to see that every vote is cast and every ballot is counted."

But in a sign of confidence on the front-runner's part, party officials said discussions were under way to send Paul Tewes, a top Obama campaign aide, to the Democratic National Committee to oversee operations for the fall campaign.

And in a fresh indication that their race was coming to an end, Clinton and Obama praised one another and pledged a united party for the general election.

"While we continue to go toe-to-toe for this nomination, we do see eye-to-eye when it comes to uniting our party to elect a Democratic president this fall," said Clinton, whose supporters Obama will need if he is to end eight years of Republican rule in the White House.

Clinton won at least 47 delegates in the two states and Obama won at least 32, according to an analysis of election returns by The Associated Press. All the Kentucky delegates were awarded, but there were still 24 to be allocated in Oregon, and Obama was in line for many of them.

He had 1,949 delegates overall, out of 2026 needed for the nomination. Clinton had 1,769 according the latest tally by the AP.

Obama's total includes more than a majority of the delegates picked in the 56 primaries and caucuses on the calendar, a group that excludes nearly 800 superdelegates, the party leaders who hold the balance of power at the convention.

With about 50 percent of the votes counted in Oregon's unique mail-in primary, Obama was gaining a 58 percent share to 42 percent for Clinton.

The former first lady's victory in Kentucky was bigger yet - 65 percent to 30 percent - and the exit polls underscored once more the work Obama has ahead if he is to win over her voters.

Almost nine in 10 ballots were cast by whites, and the former first lady was winning their support overwhelmingly. She defeated him among voters of all age groups and incomes, the college educated and non-college educated, self-described liberals, moderates and conservatives.

"We have had our disagreements during this campaign, but we all admire her courage, her commitment and her perseverance," Obama said of his rival and partner in a marathon race through the primaries. "No matter how this primary ends, Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and yours will come of age."

As for McCain, he said he would leave it up to the Arizona senator "to explain whether his policies and positions represent long-held convictions or Washington calculations, but the one thing they don't represent is change."

McCain's spokesman countered quickly.

"This election is fundamentally about who Americans can trust to secure peace and prosperity for the next generation of Americans. Without a doubt, Barack Obama is a talented political orator, but his naive plans for unconditional summits with rogue leaders and support for big tax hikes on hardworking families expose his bad judgment that Americans can ill-afford in our next president," said Tucker Bounds in a statement.

In the fundraising chase, Obama reported cash on hand of $46.5 million, all of which can be used for the general election. Unless he takes federal funds, he is permitted to raise as much as he can.

Unlike Obama, McCain is expected to take federal funds, which total about $85 million and bar him from raising other donations for his campaign's use.

"We still have work to do to in the remaining states, where we will compete for every delegate available," Obama said in an e-mail sent to supporters. "But tonight, I want to thank you for everything you have done to take us this far - farther than anyone predicted, expected or even believed possible."

Both candidates paused during the day to express best wishes to Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, the Massachusetts Democrat suffering from a brain tumor.

"So many of us here have benefited in some way or another because of the battles he's waged, and some of us are here because of them," Obama said.

Said Clinton: "As a lifelong champion for social justice and equality, his work has made the path easier for me, for Senator Obama and for countless others. He's been with us for our fights and we're now with him in his."

The Clinton campaign expressed irritation at Obama's decision to return to Iowa and mark his success in amassing a majority of delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

But he paid no attention. "The question then becomes how do we complete the nomination process so that we have the majority of the total number of delegates, including superdelegates, to be able to say this thing's over," Obama told The Associated Press in an interview.

Clinton looked for a consolation for the strongest presidential campaign of any woman in history. She hoped to finish with more votes than her rival in all the contests combined, including Florida and Michigan, two states that were stripped of their delegates by the national party for moving their primary dates too early. A Democratic convention committee is to meet on May 31 in Washington to decide how - and whether - to seat delegates from the two states.

Not counting the results in Kentucky and Oregon, Obama was ahead of Clinton by slightly more than 618,000 votes out of 32.2 million cast in primaries and caucuses where both candidates competed.

The numbers do not include Iowa, Maine, or Nevada caucuses, nor do they count - as Clinton does in her totals - Florida and Michigan.

The only primaries remaining are Puerto Rico, on June 1, followed two days later by South Dakota and Montana.

By DAVID ESPO and SARA KUGLER, Associated Press, May 21, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) - Race played a decisive role in Hillary Rodham Clinton's lopsided victory in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary in Kentucky, the latest contest to emphasize how fierce her rivalry against Barack Obama has become among party voters.

Even as Obama edges toward his party's nomination, the Illinois senator showed little progress in chipping away at Clinton's dominance among whites - including the better-educated ones who have been a tossup group between the two rivals.

Nearly two-thirds of white college graduates backed Clinton in Kentucky. Only in Arkansas have more of them favored Clinton among the 32 states that have held Democratic primaries in which both candidates competed.

Three quarters of whites who have not completed college - a bulwark of Clinton support this year - also backed the New York senator. She has seldom done better this year with those blue-collar white voters - little surprise considering Kentucky has a high proportion of whites and one of the country's highest proportions of non-college-graduates.

In addition, only about four in 10 whites in Kentucky said they would vote for Obama in a matchup with John McCain in the general election. Nearly as many said they would support the Republican, and the rest said they would not vote.

It was not just the voters' race, but their racial attitudes, that proved influential.

About one in five whites said race played a role in choosing a candidate Tuesday - on par with results in several other Southern states. Nearly nine in 10 of that group backed Clinton - the highest proportion yet among the 28 states where that question has been asked in exit polls.

Only three in 10 whites who said race was a factor said they would vote for Obama should he oppose McCain in November. Four in 10 said they would back McCain, while the rest said they wouldn't vote.

Among whites who said race was not a factor in picking a candidate Tuesday, half said they would support Obama over McCain.

Oregon was also voting Tuesday. With its mail balloting still under way Tuesday evening, interviews there showed stark contrasts with Kentucky. Only about one in 10 white voters in Oregon - which is more liberal than Kentucky - said the race of the candidates was important to them.

As the battle for the Democratic nomination finishes its fifth month, there were signs in Kentucky that some voters are looking beyond contest's end. Just over half of voters said they expect Obama to win the party's nomination - including one in three Clinton backers.

Even so, the distaste each candidate's supporters had for the rival contender was clear, underscoring a challenge the party will face in uniting its voters for the fall election.

Only a third of Clinton backers said they would vote for Obama against McCain. Obama voters seemed more forgiving - seven in 10 said they would vote for Clinton.

Just four in 10 Clinton supporters favored picking Obama as running mate should she win the nomination. The same number of Obama backers want Clinton to run as his vice president.

Illustrating Clinton's dominance in Kentucky, only half of those voting Tuesday said they would support Obama over McCain. She was seen by most as more honest than Obama and as the candidate who most shares voters' values.

Overall, Clinton dominated Obama across virtually all categories of voters, winning strongly among men, women and whites, as well as people of virtually all ages, income and education levels.

Obama won clearly only among blacks, taking nine in 10 of their votes. He and Clinton were running about even among independents - a group he has won in most states.

Those saying John Edwards' endorsement last week of Obama was important were split evenly between the two contenders, while those saying it was insignificant backed Clinton heavily.

The Kentucky data came from an exit poll by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks conducted in 30 precincts in the state. The preliminary data was based on 1,342 people voting in Kentucky's Democratic contest, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Oregon figures came from telephone interviews the companies conducted of 1,201 people voting in that state's contest, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 points. Oregon votes by mail ballot, and those interviews were conducted from May 12-18.

By ALAN FRAM, The Associated Press, May 20, 2008

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) claimed an easy and expected victory tonight in Kentucky's Democratic presidential primary, while voters continued to cast ballots in Oregon where Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) was leading in the polls.

Clinton's Kentucky win is her second in as many weeks. She defeated Obama by 41 points last Tuesday in West Virginia, a victory largely overshadowed by former North Carolina senator John Edwards's endorsement of Obama less than 24 hours later.

Clinton's victory today in Kentucky could again be overshadowed - pending the results out of Oregon tonight. Oregon's primary is conducted entirely by mail ballot, but voters can drop off their ballots as late as 11 p.m. Eastern time tonight. As of Monday, more than 800,000 mail-in votes had been cast in Oregon with overall turnout expected to crest at a million.

Exit polling conducted in both states suggest that Democratic voters were primarily motivated by a desire for change. Nearly half of all voters in Kentucky and Oregon cited a candidate's ability to bring about change as their top priority in choosing between the two.

Less than a quarter of the voters surveyed said a candidate's experience was the key to making up their minds, while roughly one in 10 cited electability as a main concern.

Nearly two-thirds of Kentucky voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country while less than half of Oregon Democrats said the same. Nearly one-in-three Oregon voters called the war in Iraq the top issue while roughly two in 10 Kentucky Democrats identified the war as the most pressing matter facing the nation.

Even before all of the results tonight are tabulated, Obama is expected to declare that he has secured a majority of the pledged delegates to this summer's Democratic national convention in Denver -- a moment that his campaign will tout as a major milestone in his march to the nomination.

Heading into today's votes, Obama had 1,602 pledged delegates or 49.25 percent of the total number at stake in the primaries. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that amassing a majority of pledged delegates was an "important" development but quickly added: "We are definitely not going to declare victory."

Seeking to drive home the idea that he is the all-but-certain nominee, Obama will deliver a speech tonight in Iowa, bringing his campaign full circle from his crucial victory in that state's Democratic caucuses on Jan. 3. He also received the endorsement of Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Scott Brennan today. Brennan promised that Obama would "help Iowa Democrats win up and down the ticket in November."

The Clinton campaign has aggressively fought back against the idea that the race is over. Campaign aides released a memo yesterday that called Obama's planned speech in Iowa a "slap in the face to the millions of voters in the remaining primary states and to Senator Clinton's 17 million supporters."

Regardless of Clinton's protestations, the likely general election fight between Obama and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has begun in the last few days, with the two sides trading charges over their approaches to dealing with Iran and the influence of lobbyists over their campaigns, with nary a mention of Clinton.

Clinton's win in Kentucky is unlikely to change that dynamic. Polling showed Clinton with a wide lead and Obama's campaign had largely conceded the state to the New York Senator.

Oregon seems to be friendly territory for Obama. He enjoys support in a series of college town along the state's western coast, as well as in the progressive bastion of Portland. About 80,000 people gathered at a rally in Portland over the weekend to hear Obama speak.

At stake in today's voting are 51 pledged delegates in Kentucky and 52 in Oregon. Only Democrats are eligible to vote in each primary.

Polling places opened at 6 a.m. EDT and were scheduled to close at 7 p.m. eastern time in Kentucky. Polls in Oregon opened at 7 a.m. Pacific time in most of the state and were closing at 8 p.m.

Oregon is a vote-by-mail state and ballots were first sent out on May 1. More than 800,000 ballots had already been cast as of Monday and state election officials believe another 250,000 will be dropped off at polling places today.

After tonight, just three nominating contests remain. Puerto Rico will vote on June 1 while South Dakota and Montana will bring the race to a close on June 3. None of the remaining contests are expected to alter the math of the Democratic nomination, which is close to determinative in Obama's favor.

A candidates needs a total of 2,026 delegates to secure the nomination. Obama leads Clinton in total delegates -- pledged and super -- 1905.5 to 1723.5. He also holds a 16,157,639 to 15,583,020 popular vote lead over Clinton, according to NBC's political unit.

As of today, slightly more than 200 superdelegates have not stated which candidate they support. Clinton continues to assert that she can attract considerable support among the undeclared superdelegates, but the trend of late has been to Obama, not Clinton.

By Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post, May 20, 2008

WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton bagged a big win Tuesday in Kentucky that did little to slow front-runner Barack Obama, who anticipated reaching a milestone by capturing a majority of regular delegates for the Democratic nomination.

While Clinton was winning Kentucky by 35 percentage points, Obama was favoured in Oregon where he drew the largest crowd of his campaign - 75,000 - on Sunday in Portland.

He faced walking a fine line between celebrating a delegate feat and declaring victory, for fear of alienating Clinton supporters who are upset about her dwindling prospects.

The two camps are engaged in a delicate dance as they look ahead to rallying the party for the White House run this fall against Republican John McCain.

It means giving Clinton room to play out the remaining votes in the hopes there will be fewer hard feelings when the dust settles.

"We have to select the candidate who is best positioned to win in November," said Clinton, who vowed to see the primary season through to the end on June 3.

"It's often been said: as Kentucky goes, so goes the nation."

But while she'll continue to fight Obama for the Nomination, Clinton said the two see "eye to eye when it comes to uniting our party and electing a Democratic president this fall."

The two camps have already agreed to raise funds together for the party's campaign in the general election.

And Obama's top strategist David Axelrod disclosed that he has talked informally with Clinton's former campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle about joining forces to beat McCain.

But Clinton aides were clearly rankled by Obama's plan to mark his majority of pledged delegates in Iowa, where his victory in January turned the epic nomination race on its ear.

"Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted," said Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.

"Declaring mission accomplished does not make it so."

Kentucky's white, rural, working-class voters were backing Clinton in droves, fuelling another lopsided win for her like the one in West Virginia a week ago.

Race played a decisive role in Kentucky, where 90 per cent of voters were white. She dominated in virtually all categories of those voters, including men, women and people of all ages, incomes and education levels.

But Obama held appeal in Oregon, also a largely white state but one that's more affluent with a more liberal Democratic base.

Neither candidate has reached the magic number of 2,026 delegates to the party's convention in August required to win the nomination.

But Obama led Clinton by 1,917 to 1,722 going into Kentucky and Oregon, including support from decided superdelegates - party officials and legislators crucial to deciding the winner who are increasingly turning to Obama.

Clinton's camp is arguing Obama won't have anything to celebrate because pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida haven't been counted. It was the penalty against the two states for moving up their primaries against the party's wishes.

Both candidates planned appearances Wednesday in Florida.

After Tuesday, there are only three votes left - Puerto Rico on June 1 and Montana and South Dakota two days later.

Obama has all but ignored Clinton in the campaign trail lately while trading barbs with McCain over the wisdom of holding direct talks with U.S. adversaries like Iran and Cuba.

As for Clinton, she has stopped running negative ads and has lowered the temperature on anti-Obama rhetoric.

But if an uneasy detente is starting to develop between the two camps, many Clinton supporters are furious at suggestions she should concede now.

A group called WomenCount launched by clothing magnate Susie Thompkins Buell took out a full-page ad in the New York Times on Tuesday with the headline: Not So Fast.

"We want Hillary to stay in this race until every vote is cast, every vote is counted, and we know that our voices are heard."

Another Ohio-based group angry about sexist attacks on Clinton throughout the campaign says it will try to thwart Obama in key swing states this fall.

Clinton addressed the issue Monday in an interview with the Washington Post, saying sexism has played a larger role than racism in the nomination fight.

"It's been deeply offensive to millions of women," she said. "There should be equal rejection of the sexism and the racism when it raises its ugly head."

The Canadian Press, May 20, 2008

MAYSVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday that Barack Obama may be getting ahead of himself in acting like the party's nominee before the final primary contests are over.

Clinton and Obama are still set to face off in several more primaries, including in Kentucky and Oregon on Tuesday, but Obama has been increasingly presenting himself as the nominee already facing Republican John McCain. The two debated foreign policy again Monday, paying little attention to Clinton. Obama, meanwhile, has scheduled appearances later this week in Iowa and Florida as he looks ahead to the swing states in the general election.

As she struggles to stay relevant, Clinton's campaign announced she would stop in Florida on Wednesday, too.

"You can declare yourself anything, but if you don't have the votes, it doesn't matter," Clinton said Monday in a satellite interview with an Oregon television station before a campaign appearance in Kentucky.

At an evening rally in Lexington, Clinton's husband portrayed her as the underdog who keeps coming back from the brink of defeat.

"They've declared her dead more times than a cat's got lives," the former president told a raucous crowd of about 2,500 supporters.

Clinton trails Obama in the delegate count by such a margin that it is mathematically unlikely for her to overtake him in the remaining primaries, which end June 3 with Montana and South Dakota.

But both candidates have been angling to win over the party leaders and elected officials known as superdelegates, whose support will likely determine the nominee. Obama recently surpassed Clinton in committed superdelegates.

Clinton also has tried to make the case that if the results of disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida are included, she would lead Obama narrowly in the overall popular vote. Clinton won both contests, but the results were voided because they took place in January in violation of Democratic Party rules. Obama and three other Democrats, but not Clinton, removed their names from Michigan's ballot after all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign there or in Florida.

Since then, Clinton has argued that both states' delegations should be seated at the Democratic convention in August. The DNC rules committee has a May 31 meeting to consider options.

"Once we include Florida and Michigan, neither Senator Obama nor I will have enough delegates to get the nomination, so there is no way that this is going to end anytime soon, because we're going to keep fighting for the nomination," Clinton told voters in Prestonburg, Ky.

To bolster her popular vote argument, Clinton's campaign has concentrated this week on Kentucky, where she's leading in polls, in order to run up her vote there. Last Friday, the New York senator left Oregon, where she trails Obama, to campaign exclusively in Kentucky.

Clinton also has been arguing to superdelegates that she is more tested and experienced and has a better chance of beating McCain.

She said Monday that she is the "more progressive candidate" and dismissed Obama's large crowds, like the record rally of an estimated 65,000 in Portland on Sunday. Clinton said Obama, who has refused to debate her since they faced off before the Pennsylvania primary last month, would "rather just talk to giant crowds than have questions asked."

Speaking to several hundred people in a high school gymnasium in Maysville, Clinton renewed her campaign's argument that Obama's victories in states with caucuses instead of primaries are somehow less significant because turnout was lower.

Clinton also revived her pitch that many states where he has beaten her, like Alaska, Idaho and Utah, matter less because they would not be competitive for Democrats in November.

"So I'm going to make my case and I'm going to make it until we have a nominee, but we're not going to have one today and we're not going to have one tomorrow and we're not going to have one the next day," Clinton said. "And if Kentucky turns out tomorrow, I will be closer to that nomination because of you."

Later in Prestonburg, Clinton added an unusual rationale for her candidacy - an analysis by President Bush's former political adviser Karl Rove that she would be tougher for McCain to defeat.

"Just today I found some curious support for that position when one of the TV networks released an analysis done by - of all people - Karl Rove, saying that I was the stronger candidate," she said.

By SARA KUGLER, The Associated Press, May 19, 2008

Rural Kentucky points up a difficult reality for Barack Obama: To many white voters, race still matters

MUNFORDVILLE, Ky. - Mike Rife is white, a semiretired factory worker with a high school education and a 2-foot-square sign on his lawn that makes friends and neighbors flip him the finger as they drive by.

The sign reads: "Obama for President."

"I think I almost know what it feels like to be a black guy," said Rife, his voice gravelly and defiant. "I take heat every day. I got an Obama sticker on my car, and I catch hell for it."

Munfordville is the seat of Hart County, a rural swath of Kentucky farmland. Its Democrats will vote, and vote hard, for Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's primary. And if Barack Obama goes on to win the nomination, many of those Bluegrass State Democrats say they will vote against him quicker than you can say, "Race doesn't matter."

"They won't vote for a black man," Rife said of the people he has lived around all his 57 years. "That's all there is to it. They just can't bring themselves to do it."

A walk around this central Kentucky town of 1,600 supports Rife's opinion. Whether in the Dairy Queen or the dollar store or along the sidewalks of a courthouse square ringed with shuttered businesses, people speak freely of their dislike for the lanky senator from Illinois.

Terry Jordan, 47, who runs a year-round garage sale in front of an old filling station on Main Street, put it simply: "It's his color."

A weighty reality

The Munfordvilles of America - and there are many - present a troubling reality for Obama's campaign, as his lopsided loss in neighboring West Virginia showed. These are the places where lofty talk of transcending race is dragged to earth by a weighty reality that has nothing to do with Obama's position on the federal gas tax, Clinton's tenacity on the campaign trail or even the off-putting rants of Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.

"Right now it's not that Hillary attracts the white vote," said Jack Bunnell, 79. "It's that Obama's black."

Bunnell, a lifelong resident of Hart County, isn't proud of this. But like many in Munfordville, he accepts the sentiment as a fact of life in a town that's nearly 90 percent white, a place of little racial tension but a very clear separation between races.

Rife knows of no more than 10 other people who, like him, will vote for Obama. Still, he doesn't view people in his community as mean-spirited. Few will express any particular dislike of black people, he said, but asking them to vote for a black man for president is simply too much of a leap: "They just aren't ready for it."

It's a notion the Clinton campaign has been subtly pushing, claiming that only she can secure a Democratic vote in many large, predominantly white expanses of America - particularly in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, potential keys to the fall election.

Obama's strategists have argued that once he secures the nomination, most Democratic voters will swing his way. They set forth as evidence his strong showing among white voters in Iowa, Wisconsin and Virginia. But the demographics of those states, particularly in terms of education and income, favor Obama.

Kentucky was a border state in the Civil War. It eventually sided with the Union, but much of the populace either joined or supported the Confederacy. Munfordville was the site of a major victory for the South, one that marked a high point of the Confederacy's westward push.

'Lots of factors'

Anyone thinking a black politician could come onto the national stage and simply win these Kentuckians over is being naive, residents say. And it's not, as some outsiders might believe, because the town's voters are ignorant.

"To attribute it solely to ignorance would be totally inaccurate," said Melody Chaney, a financial adviser in Munfordville and a Clinton supporter. "It's a matter of education, their upbringing and their background, peer pressure. There are lots of factors that contribute to this."

The day after Obama won the Iowa caucuses, Chaney said, every client she spoke to expressed shock.

"They couldn't believe it," she said. "I think in rural America, certainly among Democrats, the vast majority would like a white male candidate."

But not everyone. Tim Carter lives on a narrow, crescent-shaped road called National Turnpike, a block or so off Main Street, an area known as "the black part of town." He's an Obama supporter, though he knows his man stands no chance in Kentucky.

"He shouldn't even bother to fly over," said Carter, who was born and raised in Munfordville and has spent 35 of his 56 years working in a nearby factory.

He likes his town and says there's little friction between blacks like him and whites.

"People get along pretty well," he said. "The racist end of it, that will always be here. There's black people that don't like white people, and white people that don't like black people. But there's not much trouble."

Rebel flags on walls

Webster Rogers, 23 and also black, said that in high school he felt welcome visiting the homes of white friends. But often he would spot Confederate flags hanging on the walls, reminders of differences that still linger.

That divide has provided fertile ground for Obama conspiracy theories. Residents opposed to Obama seem inclined to latch onto false rumors about the candidate or negative exaggerations about his views.

"I believe that he's a Muslim," said Susan Horton, 56 and white. She leaves her living room whenever Obama comes on the television. "I think that if he gets into office, there's going to be another bombing."

"He's not patriotic," said Brandy Trulock, a 21-year-old mother of two. "If you can't salute the American flag, I don't think you should be allowed to run for president."

At his never-ending garage sale, Terry Jordan sells secondhand bluejeans, ceramic tchotchkes and anything else he can get his hands on, displaying his wares on a flatbed trailer and a few rickety folding tables. He makes about $100 a week to supplement his $720 monthly disability check.

He's all Democrat, all Clinton and, if Obama wins the nomination, all for Republican John McCain. He doesn't trust Obama, has serious questions about the Muslim rumors and truly believes a black man will not survive long as president of the United States.

Jordan claims there's nothing Obama could say that would change his mind.

From the resolute tone of his voice, and the sight of the rebel flag tattoo on his left arm, there's little reason not to believe him.




By Rex W. Huppke, Chicago Tribune, May 19, 2008

Many people have been screaming at Senator Hillary Clinton to abandon her presidential bid. They argue that she is selfishly standing in the way of party unity and increasingly the likelihood that Senator John McCain will be the next president. The Hillary-must-go-now crowd should tread lightly. What many of these people don't seem to understand is that Barack Obama cannot win the presidency without significant, sustained, and sincere support from Clinton. Consequently, he needs to be patient and give her whatever she wants - even if it means giving her the vice-presidential nomination.

There are four reasons why Obama needs Clinton. First, the Obamaniacs have yet to accept that, for all the money and notoriety his candidacy has generated, he may be weakest Democratic nominee since former Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis. I know that seems counterintuitive, given the enormous amount of money he has raised, the way he has energized new voters, and the way his message is resonating with voters all over the country. The reality is, however, that he has not dominated the nomination fight - indeed Clinton would already be the nominee if the Democrats allocated their delegates on a winner-take-all basis as the Republicans do in most states. Moreover, we don't yet know the full extent of the racial and cultural roadblocks between Obama and the White House. My study of race and politics tells me that those roadblocks are mountainous and we are not yet in the general election. This puts a high premium on picking the right running mate.

Second, Hillary Clinton can be a better running mate than anyone else being mentioned. Who among us believes that Sam Nunn, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, or John Edwards can go into Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia and deliver those states to the Democrats? At one level or another, they represent some of the old style politics from which Obama promises to move the country. It's also doubtful that Nunn, Biden, and Edwards for example, would be willing to go after their former colleague, McCain, as the running mate is expected to; Edwards' unwillingness to do that in 2004 is seen as one of the reasons why John Kerry lost.

Third, the 41-point beating he took in West Virginia even though it's widely accepted that he will be the party nominee underscores the serious problem he has in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Those realities can't be overcome by just holding campaign rallies and talking about inclusion. Obama needs a running mate that has credibility with these voters and can vouch for him on all the areas where questions exist. Who better to do that than the woman who won, or is far ahead in the polls, in those states in the primaries?

Obama needs someone who can make him palatable to the voters that have, heretofore, remained cool to his presidential bid. Some have not taken to Obama because they, idiotically, believe that he is a closet Muslim (as if that means he's disloyal to the country) devoutly dedicated to the teachings of Reverend Jeremiah Wright, or some of the other ridiculous notions being pushed by conservative talk radio. Even more don't like him because he is Black. Obama seems unwilling or unable to confront racism for what it is, so he will need someone who can divert attention from race to something else. Clinton can do that too.

But would such a teaming work in November? I think it could, given where the Republicans are in the eyes of the country. Recently losses by the GOP in previously safe southern House seats, President Bush's historic unpopularity, and questions about McCain's longevity suggest a voter mood that is sure to keep the Democrats in the game, Obama's weaknesses notwithstanding. An Obama-Clinton ticket may seem like a longshot but, upon further review, it may be the only way the Democrats can recapture the White House.

By Michael Fauntroy, The Huffington Post, May 20, 2008

In an interview with Lois Romano of the Washington Post, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, "for the first time addressed what women have been talking about for months, what she refers to as the 'sexist' treatment she has endured at the hands of the pundits, media and others. The lewd T-shirts. The man who shouted 'Iron my shirt' at a campaign event. The references to her cleavage and her cackle.

"'It's been deeply offensive to millions of women,' Clinton said. 'I believe this campaign has been a groundbreaker in a lot of ways. But it certainly has been challenging given some of the attitudes in the press, and I regret that, because I think it's been really not worthy of the seriousness of the campaign and the historical nature of the two candidacies we have here.'

"Later, when asked if she thinks this campaign has been racist, she says she does not. And she circles back to the sexism. 'The manifestation of some of the sexism that has gone on in this campaign is somehow more respectable, or at least more accepted, and . . . there should be equal rejection of the sexism and the racism when it raises its ugly head,' she said. 'It does seem as though the press at least is not as bothered by the incredible vitriol that has been engendered by the comments by people who are nothing but misogynists.'"

Last night we looked at this very issue on Nightline.

But really, Clinton hasn't seen an examples of racism during this campaign? None?

Not even in the exit polls showing a small percentage of her white supporters motivated to vote for her because of race?

By Jake Tapper, ABC News, May 20, 2008

Students, congressmen and community members from all over California gathered for the first-ever Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote Presidential Town Hall meeting at the Bren Events Center. The May 17 conference included both entertainment as well as serious discussion. It was hosted in hopes of encouraging more votership amongst the Asian community and to spread awareness of the presidential candidates' views on issues they would find relevant.

The event, which was streamed live on 15 Web sites, was not advertised far in advance, but nevertheless hyped the appearance of one, if not all, of the three presidential candidates at the forum. New York Senator Hillary Clinton's attendance seemed like a sure bet until a few days before the meeting, but all three senators were absent on the day of.

Instead, Clinton appeared on megascreens via satellite feed to answer previously formulated questions regarding topics such as immigration reform and hiring Asian American staff members. Shortly thereafter, Illinois Senator Barack Obama participated in a live telephone conversation in which he responded to similar questions asked by concerned Asian-American community members.

Arizona Senator John McCain, who was last to be represented, was not able to attend because he was in New York taping "Saturday Night Live." California State Assemblyman Van Tran spoke on McCain's behalf and encouraged the audience to watch the program later that night.

Actress Tamlyn Tomita, who has appeared in such films as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "The Joy Luck Club," played the lively emcee for the forum. She introduced the government officials who were part of each of the candidates' respective campaigns in California, and who would be presenting the senators to the audience that day.

California State Controller John Chiang introduced Clinton and noted that, in his opinion, no other candidate other than Clinton has responded to Asian and Pacific Islanders as thoroughly.

During her speech, Clinton answered a number of prepared questions that touched on a variety of subjects. The first question discussed immigration reform and the changes that Clinton plans to make to immigration practice, if elected.

"I think immigration is the lifeblood of America and that our current immigration system is in crisis. ... I'll work to establish a fair process for people seeking to come to America especially for those whose families have been torn apart," Clinton said.

Although not specifically pertaining to Asian Americans alone, healthcare was one of the issues Clinton addressed during her presentation as well.

"Under my plan I would work to ensure the quality of healthcare so that it is accessible to all Americans, including those who are unemployed or self-employed," Clinton stated. "People who like their healthcare plans who have them can keep them, but those who don't have coverage or who are not satisfied will be able to choose from among the same plans available to members of Congress, or opt into a public plan option such as Medicare in a new national insurance pool."

Clinton and Obama also both promised to continue hiring qualified Asian-Americans for high-ranking staff positions, even more so than were already employed under the two candidates' campaigns. In addition, Obama, who was introduced by California's 31st Congressional Representative Xavier Becerra, emphasized the concerns of the Asian-American community due to Obama's Indonesian and Hawaiian background.

"I consider myself part of you," Obama said. "And what you care about and what you believe in that are important to Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders and building generation after generation a better life for children and grandchildren, that's what the American dream is about. You represent that; that's what I'm planning for in this campaign ... to represent those same values, those same ideals."

Obama also answered questions including one focusing on the disparities between the healthcare of the privileged and that of the disenfranchised Asian-American and Pacific Islander minorities.

"Often times minority groups including certain Asian-American and Pacific Islander groups are still getting inadequate care, less care ... that is why I am a sponsor of the health care disparities legislation that is in the Senate right now. As president I would make this a priority," Obama said.

McCain's representative, Tran, spoke about the strong ties that the McCain family has had with Asia.

"The McCain family actually has 70 years of working and visiting with Asia beginning with his grandfather, who served as a four-star admiral ... even during and before World War II fighting oppression and tyranny during that period and of course his father ... who during the Vietnam War was the commanding chief of the entire U.S. military in Asia and of course Senator McCain himself was a naval pilot, who suffered five and a half years in a communist prison in north Vietnam," Tran said.

Tran also addressed a number of broader issues that McCain will work to improve as president, such as the economy.

"Senator McCain will get our economy back on track. ... McCain will cut taxes and stop the outrageous wasteful spending in Washington D.C. He will make the Bush tax cuts permanent, cut taxes on American businesses to help our companies remain credited, he will stop the wasteful and pork barrel spending and enforce the vision of smaller government," Tran said.

Both Democratic candidates had booths set up in the center's lobby to collect signatures from supporters and volunteers.

Irene B. Bueno, the director of Asian Outreach for Hillary Clinton's campaign said that, while having a two-way satellite link would have been preferred, technological limitations prevented this from happening.

"I think it was great. ... It was a mix of different mediums. ... We thought the satellite was the best medium. ... Unfortunately, we weren't able to do a two-way thing," Bueno said.

Emily Morishima, a fifth-year graduate student in English at UC Los Angeles, volunteered for Obama's booth at the event. Morishima noted that unlike Clinton and McCain, Obama appeared more dedicated because of his willingness to directly speak to the public.

"I was really impressed with it ... that he was the only candidate to interact ... I hope we have a lot more of these," Morishima said.

The night's entertainment consisted of a wide variety of performers, who reflected the diversity of Asian-American society. Among the entertainers were Camile Velasco of "American Idol" fame, Kaba Modern Legacy, spoken-word performer Beau Sia and the Chinese Association Dance Crew.

Catherine Hsieh, a second-year undeclared major performed as part of the CADC and described how the event mixed politics and entertainment.

"I enjoyed the presidential town hall because it offered an opportunity for the presidential candidates to showcase their policy positions that impact the Asian-American and Pacific Islander community. The informal setting made the overall event much more enjoyable and the performances were amazing," Hsieh said.

Although some attendees were intrigued by the night's festivities, others enjoyed the event far less, such as Jean-Ha, a 20-year-old Irvine resident.

"It was really long. Too long in fact, especially when people started leaving at the end. ... It seemed really professional ... robotic, not like they really cared," Park said.

By Annam Siddiq and Daniel Johnson, New University, May 19 2008

Has Clinton become Al Gore? She found her voice too late? Still, the fact remains: Clinton has re-made her image and created a distinctive brand from her husband. Frankly, she has accomplished a lot, it's just come a bit too late, just like Al Gore. (It also came with a favorable post-February primary calendar.) Maybe, Hillary and Gore have a lot more in common than they realize; it takes years, not months, to grow out of Bill's shadow.

The Washington Post's Romano writes: "No one is quite sure when Clinton hit her stride, when she stopped caring about the polls, when she took her campaign to the people and gave voters a window into her soul. She said she found her voice in New Hampshire, but then all we heard was Bill's. Some say it was when senior strategist Mark Penn was forced to leave the campaign; he did not put a premium on the personal side of politics. Or it could have simply been when she was losing and so had nothing to lose by being herself."

" 'The irony is that candidates often find their voices once the pressure is off,' said Peter D. Hart, a Democratic pollster and strategist. They are comfortable with 'who they are and what they are. It comes at a point in the campaign when the candidate says this is what I want to say and this is who I am. For Hillary Clinton, as you stripped away all the varnish, the core person is the most attractive of all.' "

The New York Time's Nagourney, in a fascinating online look at individual dominoes in the Clinton collapse, pulls back the curtain on the Drudge effect: "In October, The New York Times published an article examining the relationship between Mrs. Clinton and the Drudge Report. The article related how the Drudge Report, which historically had tormented the Clintons, had begun routinely posting items boosting Mrs. Clinton's campaign, at the prompting of an intermediary between Mrs. Clinton's campaign and the Web site. For the Clinton campaign, things changed almost overnight after that: The Drudge Report returned to being a vehicle driving negative stories about Mrs. Clinton, bad news about the Clinton campaign got extensive attention, and Mrs. Clinton's war room spent many hours trying to tamp down rumors and suspect information being trumpeted on the site."

By Mark Murray, MSNBC, May 20, 2008

Rivals may split primaries today

WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton, having dramatically toned down her criticism of Barack Obama in recent days, issued a not-so-gentle warning to her surging opponent yesterday: The Democratic nomination is not yours yet.

Obama, steadily collecting party leaders' endorsements in the last two weeks, appears poised with a strong showing today in Oregon to reach a significant milestone on the path to the nomination - a majority of all delegates being awarded by voters in primaries and caucuses.

But Clinton, who ushered in her historic campaign 16 months ago on the slogan, "I'm in it to win it," insisted yesterday she was not planning on going anywhere until all the votes were counted in every state and territory.

"This is nowhere near over," the senator from New York said at a rally in Kentucky, where she is expected to win today. "None of us is going to have the number of delegates we're going to need to get to the nomination, although I understand my opponent and his supporters are going to claim that."

With just five contests to go, it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to win enough delegates to secure the nomination, or even to pass Obama, who is within 17 of winning the majority of pledged delegates and 111 of clinching the nomination overall, according to the latest Associated Press tally.

But Clinton is still hoping that a stronger-than-expected showing in the remaining races - including today's primaries in Oregon and Kentucky, with a combined 103 pledged delegates up for grabs - will convince superdelegates that she would be the stronger nominee in November against Senator John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee.

Obama's camp, meanwhile, has been confident in its progress but careful not to offend Clinton supporters, whose votes the Illinois senator will need to beat McCain in the general election.

"No one is taking a victory lap," Obama's campaign manager, David Axelrod, said yesterday.

Clinton has been campaigning hard in Kentucky, hoping to expand the lead she has enjoyed in polls there. Obama, meanwhile, spent yesterday in Montana, which on June 3 holds one of the last two primaries. His effort sent a strong signal that he is not taking the nomination for granted.

But Obama plans to hold a victory rally tonight in Iowa, designed as a bookend appearance to a campaign that took off after his January win in the Iowa caucuses.

"It's not over until it's over. But it's pretty much over," said Peter Fenn, a Democratic political consultant not associated with a presidential campaign. "Barring a whole set of wheels coming off the Obama bus, it appears he's going to cross the finish line."

Obama has recently avoided openly challenging Clinton's arguments that she is still in contention for the nomination. But he and McCain are already behaving as though they have started their general election fight.

The Republican, seizing on what he sees as one of Obama's biggest weaknesses, went after the freshman senator again yesterday for his stated willingness to meet with rogue world leaders, most notably Iran's president. Obama defended his emphasis on diplomacy, telling supporters over the weekend that Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba are "tiny" compared with the former Soviet Union - and "yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, 'We're going to wipe you off the planet.' "

McCain blasted Obama for the remark, telling a restaurant industry group yesterday in Obama's hometown of Chicago that "such a statement betrays the depth of Senator Obama's inexperience and reckless judgment. Those are very serious deficiencies for an American president to possess."

"The threat the government of Iran poses is anything but tiny," McCain said, referring to Iran's alleged quest to develop a nuclear weapon and its hostility to Israel.

After praising Clinton for running a "magnificent race," Obama eagerly responded to McCain yesterday, telling a town hall meeting in Billings that the next US president should conduct "tough, disciplined, and direct diplomacy," as he said President Kennedy did with Cuba and President Reagan did with the former Soviet Union.

"Let me be absolutely clear: Iran is a grave threat," Obama said. But he added, "the Soviet Union had thousands of nuclear weapons, and Iran doesn't have a single one."

Obama also argued that the reason Iran is more powerful is the "Bush-McCain policy" of "endless war" in Iraq.

"John McCain's using the same George Bush textbook that we've seen year after year after year. Anything other than continuing a war in Iraq . . . that has been called the greatest strategic blunder in recent American history, he calls naive. Anything but their failed cowboy diplomacy that's produced no results is called appeasement," Obama said.

Obama's foreign policy approach was praised yesterday by Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, the Senate's most senior Democrat, who yesterday announced he would give his superdelegate vote to his younger colleague, calling Obama a "shining young statesman" who can extricate the country from Iraq. The endorsement by Byrd, a party stalwart and former member of the Ku Klux Klan, represents an important symbolic boost for a candidate trying to become the first African-American president.

Clinton, with few options left to claim the nomination, repeated her assertion yesterday that she leads in the popular vote - a calculation only possible if Obama's victories in caucuses are discounted and if the votes are included from Florida and Michigan. Those states' delegates are currently disqualified because the states moved up their primaries in violation of Democratic National Committee rules. The DNC rules and bylaws committee is set to meet May 31 to discuss a resolution to the matter, but political observers think it is unlikely the party will allow the two states to trump the results of the other primaries and caucuses.

But while Clinton's go-for-broke strategy may be the only way she could wrest the nomination from Obama, she must be careful not to drag out the nomination fight, or risk alienating the Democratic establishment - including the superdelegates who will decide the nomination, said Stan Collender, managing director of Qorvis Communications, a public relations firm.

Obama, too, must be careful not to claim the nomination before it is officially his, Collender said, or he may drive angry Clinton voters to McCain.

"The last thing either one of them wants is to be accused of bringing the ticket down," Collender said.

By Susan Milligan, The Boston Globe, May 20, 2008

(CNN) -- It's all about location, location, location.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will spend Tuesday night in Kentucky to celebrate what's expected to be a big win in that state's primary. But Sen. Barack Obama won't be in Oregon, even though he's favored to win that state's contest Tuesday.

The Illinois senator will appear at a rally in Iowa, where he kicked off the primary season with a January 3 caucus win -- a victory that helped propel him to Democratic front-runner status.

Iowa is also a swing state -- one President Bush won by just 10,000 votes in 2004, and one the Democrats would love to win this November.

Obama told reporters Sunday that visiting Iowa "was a terrific way to kind of bring things full circle."

"We still have some contests left, but if Kentucky and Oregon go as we hope, then we think we will have a majority of pledged delegates at that point, and that's a pretty significant mark," he said. "That means that after contests in every state, or almost every state and the territories, that we have received the majority of the delegates that are assigned by voters."

It appears that Clinton is focused on the present and Obama is looking to November.

"Why is Hillary Clinton spending primary night in Kentucky? To savor her victory and to keep the focus on swing states Obama can't seem to win. Why is Obama spending primary night in Iowa? To celebrate in the place where it all began and to keep the focus on swing states in the November election," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.

Kentucky and Oregon primaries combined hold 103 delegates. Both state's primaries are closed, which means only registered Democrats can vote in the state's Democratic primary. Clinton appears to be the overwhelming favorite in Kentucky.

The CNN poll of polls, which averages the latest public opinion surveys in the state, suggests the senator from New York leads Obama by 30 points. Polls in Kentucky close at 7 p.m. ET.

Obama is the favorite in Oregon, where a CNN poll of polls indicates he has a 10-point lead over Clinton. Oregon's primary is a mail-in only contest, which means voters there need to mail in or hand in their ballots in person by 8 p.m. (11 p.m. ET).

Obama spent the weekend campaigning in Oregon while Clinton spent four straight days in Kentucky. Both candidates have been speaking on the economy, health care, and the war in Iraq.

They also criticized Sen. John McCain, the presumed GOP presidential nominee, by linking him to President Bush. But Clinton and Obama avoided mentioning each other.

Obama's appearance in Iowa follows a similar strategy last week. Last Tuesday, as Clinton was enjoying a landslide victory in the West Virginia primary, Obama held a campaign event in Missouri, which long ago held its primary. But Missouri, like Iowa, is a battleground state that could go either way in the general election.

Besides location, Obama is also expected Tuesday night to declare that he's won a majority of the total number of pledged delegates. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, and Obama, even if he has a poor showing in the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, should easily top the 1,627 delegates needed to make that claim.

Pledged delegates are those won by the candidates in the primary and caucus contests, as opposed to 795 superdelegates, whose votes are not tied to any primary or caucus results. Superdelegates are Democratic governors, members of Congress and party officials.

Obama needs 2,026 pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. Since neither candidate is expected to win that amount by the end of the primary season on June 3, it's going to come down to the superdelegates to put either Obama or Clinton over the top.

But even though he leads Clinton in delegates won, states won, and the popular vote in the primary and caucus contests held so far this campaign season, Obama says his decision to appear in Iowa, "doesn't mean we declare victory."

"Because I won't be the nominee until we have enough -- a combination of both pledged delegates and superdelegates -- to hit the mark," Obama said. "But what it does mean is that voters have given us the majority of delegates that they can assign. And obviously that is what this primary and caucus process is about."

Obama campaigned Monday in Montana, which closes out the primary calendar, along with South Dakota, on June 3.

If the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination is almost over, Clinton isn't acting like it.

"I'm going to make [my case] until we have a nominee, but we're not going to have one today and we're not going to have one tomorrow and we're not going to have one the next day," Clinton said Monday in Kentucky.

She continues to make her argument that she leads in the popular vote. "Right now, more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent," she said. "More people have voted for me than for anybody ever running for president before. So we have a very close contest."

But that's creative math. For Clinton to have the lead in the popular vote, primary states but not caucus states -- mostly won by Obama -- would have to be counted, plus the popular vote totals in Florida and Michigan. Obama's name wasn't on the Michigan ballot, and he received no votes in that state's contest.

Neither Florida nor Michigan's results are being counted by the Democratic Party. That's because both states broke party rules by moving their primaries up to January.

Clinton also argues that she's won the states that she contends would stack up stronger against McCain.

"The states I've won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be nominee right now," she said. "We have different rules, so what we've got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes."

While those totals include states like Texas and Oklahoma, which have been solid Republican territory in general elections, "I still have a cushion, if you look at all the states that I have won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall," she said.

"My opponent has 217 electoral votes from places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska and many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states, which have a relatively low turnout," Clinton said.

So far, though, Clinton's arguments appear to be falling on deaf ears.

By Paul Steinhauser, CNN, May 19, 2008

The New York Times recently ran down a list of women who might someday become the nation's first female president. Out of both courtesy and caution, it included Hillary Clinton, but the whole point of the exercise was that it is not going to be her. Her campaign is all but over, but that's no longer the point. She's ending it in a way to start all over.

Barack Obama ultimately disrespected Kentucky even more than he did West Virginia; he at least made an 11th-hour stop (albeit a brief one) in the latter state the day before its presidential primary last Tuesday.

In the walk-up to Kentucky's nomination contest this Tuesday, the closest he's come to its borders was when he was at home in Chicago on Thursday.**

By Don Federick, Los Angeles Times, May 19, 2008

Voters in Kentucky and Oregon will likely give Barack Obama enough pledged delegates tonight to give him a majority of the delegates awarded through the nominating contests - which could cause more undeclared superdelegates to jump off the fence and support him as well.

(One superdelegate - Iowa Democratic Chairman Scott Brennan - is set to endorse Mr. Obama this morning.)

Senator Obama will hold a rally tonight not in Kentucky or Oregon, but back in Des Moines, where the Iowa caucus gave him his first win. In his remarks, however, he won't "declare victory against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton or suggest the Democratic primary should end until the final three contests are finished on June 3," write Jeff Zeleny and Patrick Healy of The New York Times.

For Mr. Obama, the situation is delicate. While eager to proceed to a general election match with Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely Republican nominee, Mr. Obama is also trying to bring the contest to a close in a way that allows him to win over Mrs. Clinton's supporters and unify the party.

Senator Clinton shows no signs of conceding the race, at least not until a decision is made on what to do with the Florida and Michigan delegations. And frankly, Mr. Obama seems O.K. with that. He's turning his attention to a November showdown with John McCain anyway.

Dan Balz of The Washington Post says Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton have declared an "effective cease-fire."

His "aides insist that he is mindful of doing nothing to suggest impatience with Clinton or to signal that she should end her candidacy before she is ready," while her people say "she is determined neither to be pushed from the race prematurely nor to be seen as doing anything to damage Obama's prospects of winning in November if he emerges as the nominee."

Clinton is soldiering on toward June 3 and the end of the primary season, and perhaps beyond, realistic about the seemingly insurmountable odds but far from giving up. Her campaign indicated yesterday that she would travel to Florida, probably tomorrow, to continue making her argument that the invalidated primaries there and in Michigan must be included to give the nomination process legitimacy. Adding the Florida and Michigan results would also move her closer to her goal of being able to claim an edge in the overall popular vote in the primaries.

Should Barack Obama emerge with the nomination, former Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Soyle said she'd "do everything I can to get him elected." She's already talked informally with David Axelrod, who is a top adviser to Mr. Obama.

As you watch tonight's election results trickle in, Politico has a guide of five things to watch for in Kentucky, and another five highlights of the Oregon race.

Oregon is a 100-percent mail-in voting state, so tens of thousands of ballots have already been turned in. All counting is done today.

Senator McCain, campaigning in Chicago, and Senator Obama, out in Montana, had words for one another about the influence of lobbyists on their campaigns Monday. "The two men are essentially competing to be known as the anti-lobbyist candidate," notes The Washington Post.

During a speech at a high school [in Billings, Mont.], Obama said voters should be concerned that "after nearly three decades in Washington, John McCain can't see or won't acknowledge what's obvious to all of us here today - that lobbyists aren't just part of the system in Washington, they're part of the problem."

McCain's campaign shot back quickly, challenging Obama to "shed light on the long list of federal lobbyists advising him on policy issues" and accusing him of diverting attention from more serious matters.

Barry Meier and Kate Zernike of The Times look more closely at Mr. McCain's staff members with lobbyist ties. "As he heads toward the general election as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, he has increasingly confronted criticism that his campaign staff is stocked with people who have made their living as lobbyists or in similar jobs, leaving his credentials as a reformer open to attack," they write.

Mr. McCain also took a moment in Mr. Obama's hometown to criticize him again on his Iran policy, Michael Luo of The Times writes.

Jonathan Alter of Newsweek's latest column dives into the woulda-coulda-shouldas and what-ifs of this long plod to the presidential nominations.

Down ballot: Vito Fossella of New York, will retire from his House seat at the end of this term. Mr. Fossella revealed recently that he secretly fathered a child in Virginia.

He's just another in a string of G.O.P. legislators who plan to retire in November. Minority Speaker John Boehner is backing off his previous prediction that the G.O.P. would gain seats this election cycle, The Hill reports.

Six weeks and three special-election losses later, a spokesman for Boehner attempted to tamp down expectations.

"This is going to be a better year for Republicans than people think," Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said on Monday. "We hope to pick up seats - that's the goal."

Carl Hulse of The Times says "conservative Republicans in the House plan to urge their colleagues to rally behind a new manifesto that mixes antispending initiatives and tighter restrictions on government benefits as the party seeks a fresh message after a string of election defeats."

Leaders of the Republican Study Committee intend to use a closed-door party meeting on Tuesday to present a seven-point proposal calling for a constitutional limit on federal spending, a new simplified income tax alternative and a proposal to require recipients of food stamps or housing aid to meet work requirements.

Kennedy update: Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts underwent medical tests Monday to determine the cause of the seizures he suffered over the weekend. He's expected to remain in the hospital through today.

By Ariel Alexovich, The New York Times, May 20, 2008

By Vaughn Ververs, CBS News, May 20, 2008

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Democrat Barack Obama eyed Tuesday an electoral milestone in his quest for the White House, but Hillary Clinton insisted their marathon race for the party's nomination was far from over.

The two rivals for the Democratic nomination were facing primary voters in Kentucky and Oregon on the home stretch of their dramatic race, with Obama looking to clinch a symbolic majority of elected delegates.

Latest polls suggested the former first lady would win in Kentucky and front-runner Obama, 46, was tipped to win in Oregon. But the two states' combined total of 103 delegates was unlikely to alter the epic race's endgame.

Obama's campaign billed Tuesday as a watershed moment on his apparent march towards the nomination, saying he would likely emerge from the twin primaries with a majority of delegates elected in all valid Democratic contests.

But Clinton, 60, warned the first-term Illinois senator against premature victory celebrations, even though he leads in total wins, pledged delegates, "superdelegates" and the popular vote in certified primaries and caucuses.

"This is nowhere near over," New York senator Clinton said, campaigning in Kentucky on Monday, defying calls for her to quit the race and allow Obama to focus on an evolving general election showdown with Republican John McCain.

Most experts believe only a monumental error by Obama can reverse the daily flow of superdelegates or top party officials towards his cause, and stop him becoming the first African-American presidential nominee in history.

First polls opened at 6:00 am (1000 GMT) and were to stay open for 12 hours in Kentucky, which spans two time zones, and is an east-central state known for coal mining, thoroughbred racehorses and pastures of bluegrass.

Opinion surveys suggest Clinton's coalition of white, blue-collar, female and older voters will hold firm and carry her to victory.

But Obama is favored in Oregon, a sparsely populated, liberal state on the western seaboard where voting was to end at 8:00 pm Pacific time (0300 GMT).

In a sign he is looking already to November, Obama was to spend Tuesday evening in Iowa, where he catapulted into contention with a shock win in the year's first nominating showdown in January.

The homecoming of sorts will offer an evocative pivot for Obama to suggest victory is assured in the Democratic race, and to tout for the midwestern swing state's support in the general election.

Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe said his boss would likely secure a majority of pledged delegates once Kentucky and Oregon results were in.

"A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message -- the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," he wrote in a fundraising email.

"As we near victory in one contest, the next challenge is already heating up," Plouffe said.

Obama's campaign says he needs only 16 more pledged delegates to reach that majority, which does not count the nearly 800 superdelegates free to vote for the nominee of their choice.

But Clinton's campaign said such talk was a "slap in the face" for her millions of supporters and an insult to voters in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, which have yet to weigh in.

"Declaring mission accomplished does not make it so," Clinton's communications director Howard Wolfson said in a memo.

Obama added endorsements from another five superdelegates Monday, and is now less than 115 delegates away from the total of 2,025 needed to secure the nomination, according to independent website RealClearPolitics.

But the Clinton campaign maintains the real finish line is 2,209 -- including Michigan and Florida, which held primaries but had delegates stripped away by Democratic bosses after breaking scheduling rules.

AFP, May 20, 2008

Clinton told a Kentucky audience Monday that Obama may be getting ahead of himself before the last votes are cast on June 3. "This is nowhere near over," she said.

Obama is expected to reach a majority of pledged delegates awarded from nominating contests with a win today in Oregon, where he is leading state polls. But he will need votes from party leaders known as superdelegates to reach the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination. Clinton has a wide lead in Kentucky polls.

Obama campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs told USA TODAY that the campaign is not taking things for granted with a visit tonight in Iowa, where Obama won the nation's first caucuses in January.

The Iowa trip "isn't about declaring ourselves the nominee," Gibbs said. "It's about coming back to where it all started, marking a milestone and planting our flag for the fall."

Clinton's campaign reinforced that the fight is not yet over with a memo entitled: "Mission Accomplished? Not so fast." She also dispatched supporters from rural Upstate New York, including a dairy farmer, to campaign in Montana where Obama spent much of Monday.

In a sign that some Clinton supporters believe the end is near, Politico reported former Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle is in talks to join the Obama campaign. "If Barack Obama's the nominee, I'll do everything I can to get him elected," Doyle told Politico.

At a Billings, Mont., rally, Obama largely ignored Clinton and criticized McCain. The presumptive Republican nominee declared Obama showed "inexperience and reckless judgment" over the weekend when Obama said Iran did not pose the same threat to the USA as the Soviet Union did during the Cold War.

Obama essentially said the same at West Billings High School, as he explained he would meet with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"The Soviet Union had the ability to destroy the world several times over," Obama said. "The threat from Iran is grave, but what we've said is that we shouldn't just talk to our friends, we should be able to engage our enemies as well."

McCain said such a meeting would increase Ahmadinejad's prestige and embolden him to acquire nuclear weapons. "The threat the government of Iran poses is anything but tiny," McCain said during a speech in Obama's home turf of Chicago.

On Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia was among the superdelegates who endorsed Obama's bid to become the first black president. Byrd, a former Ku Klux Klan member who once opposed 1964 Civil Rights Act, voted against the Iraq war.

Obama touts that he was against the war from the start, a reference to Clinton's 2002 vote authorizing President Bush to use military force in Iraq.

In Oregon, Clinton is backed by Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski, a superdelegate. But Tim Hibbitts, an independent pollster in the state, said Obama has a stronger on-the-ground organization.

"The Democratic race has been driven by demographics," Hibbitts said. "In this state, the demographics favor Obama. It doesn't have a large African-American vote, but it has large numbers of middle- to upper-middle-class liberal voters who are likely to favor him. "

A victory next month in Montana, where blacks make up less than 1% of the population, could help Obama convince superdelegates that he can win over white, working-class voters who have been the mainstay of Clinton's support.

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. President Bush won Montana by 20 percentage points in 2004.

Dennis McDonald, chairman of the Montana Democratic Party, called the contest between Clinton and Obama "fluid" with both appealing to many new voters. "I don't see either candidate having a decisive advantage right now," said McDonald, who is neutral.

McDonald, a rancher, had planned to move his 500 head of Angus cattle to new pastureland on Monday, but rescheduled the job so he could meet with Obama, who made his second visit to the state.

"It's wonderful for Democrats in Montana to have all this attention," he said. "We're accustomed to being ignored."

By Frederick Schouten, USA Today, May 19, 2008

COVINGTON, Ky (Reuters) - The state of Kentucky, best known for thoroughbred horses and bourbon, is surprised and a little excited to find itself at the center of Democratic presidential politics.

"Usually Kentucky doesn't count, so this is great," said law student Erica Stacy, 24, as she anticipated voting for Sen. Hillary Clinton on Tuesday in one of the last contests in the state-by-state race for the party's presidential nomination.

While Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, has written off the state's election as one that will surely go to his opponent, Clinton is crisscrossing Kentucky and fighting for every vote.

Most commentators, however, already count her out for the big prize -- Obama has a solid lead over Clinton in delegates to the Democratic Party convention in August who will pick the candidate for the November presidential election.

Kentucky and Oregon vote on Tuesday, with Oregon expected to go to Obama and Kentucky to Clinton. With just three states left after that, the rolling green hills of Kentucky have become one of the former first lady's last stands.

The birthplace of such American heroes as President Abraham Lincoln, frontiersman Kit Carson and boxer Muhammad Ali, the state is the home of the Kentucky Derby -- the top U.S. horse race -- and has rich farmland, coal fields and a growing automobile assembly industry.

"I am proud to be campaigning in Kentucky. Now my opponent said the other day he wasn't coming back so I've got the whole state to myself," Clinton told a "get out the vote" rally at Western Kentucky University in Bowling Green on Sunday.

"You don't tell some states that they can't vote and other states that have already had the opportunity that they're somehow more important," she added.

But some states are more important -- and rarely is Kentucky in that list. A mostly rural, white, and working-class state that voted for President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, Kentucky is considered reliably Republican and is unlikely to be seriously contested by Democrats in November.

Its significance has come down to just how big a victory Clinton can achieve in Tuesday's primary to bolster her argument that she is the preferred candidate of the nation's middle-class heartland voter.

MARGIN OF CLINTON VICTORY

"It's pretty clear that Clinton is going to win. The real issue is going to be the margin of victory. If (Obama) gets the margin to under 25 percentage points, his people will be happy," said Donald Gross, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.

A huge win by Clinton could give the New York senator a high note on which to end her campaign, after which Democrat leaders hope she will work with Obama to reunite the party.

That Kentucky has any importance at all is a surprise. Most people expected the race to be sewn up by one of the candidates, as it was for the Republican party and its presumptive nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Laura Mester, 46, a huge Clinton fan, spent Saturday making phone calls for Clinton's campaign in Covington, while her 9-year-old son Adrian made campaign signs. They were both out at the candidate's weekend rally, hoping to get a photo.

Even Mester is surprised she got the chance to help the campaign, confessing she'd only been a volunteer for a week and a half. She said voters she spoke to during her telephone effort were also taken aback that the election had lasted long enough for Kentucky to have a say.

"Many people were excited that their vote mattered," Mester said, adding that the people she spoke to were about "half and half" split between Clinton and Obama.

A random sampling of diners at a restaurant in Edgewood, Kentucky, found support for both Obama and Clinton -- and even several undecided Democrats.

"I've sort of always been a Hillary supporter but I like Obama's vision, charisma, and his equanimity. He's unflappable," said retired teacher Marsha DeWitt, 61. "But I am concerned he doesn't have enough economic and international experience because of his youth."

But Sean Dempsey, an English major at University of Louisville, said he's backing Obama all the way.

"He's smart, young, not deeply enough into politics to be cynical," said Dempsey, 21. "I don't really like Hillary Clinton at all."

By Andrea Hopkins, Reuters, May 19, 2008

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Hillary Clinton's camp warned Barack Obama not to declare "mission accomplished" in the Democratic nominating battle Monday, on the eve of two primaries likely to cement his command of the race.

Republican presidential pick John McCain, eyeing a potential general election foe, meanwhile sharpened a foreign policy assault on Obama, accusing the Illinois senator of recklessly minimizing the threat from Iran.

Clinton's campaign took Obama to task after his aides noted he would likely emerge from primary votes in Oregon and Kentucky on Tuesday with a majority of pledged nominating delegates, and looked towards a November clash with McCain.

Obama's attitude was a "slap in the face" to voters in five states yet to hold nominating contests, and millions of Clinton supporters, the former first lady's communications director Howard Wolfson said.

"There is no scenario ... by which Senator Obama will be able to claim the nomination tomorrow night," Wolfson said in a memo.

"Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted.

"Declaring mission accomplished does not make it so," he said as polls predicted Obama would win Oregon, and Clinton would snap up victory in Kentucky.

Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe said his boss would likely secure a majority of pledged delegates once Kentucky and Oregon results were in.

"A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message -- the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," he wrote in a fundraising email.

"As we near victory in one contest, the next challenge is already heating up," Plouffe said.

"President (George W.) Bush and Senator McCain have begun coordinating their attacks on Barack Obama in an effort to extend their failed policies for a third term."

Obama's campaign says he needs only 16 more pledged delegates -- with 103 on offer in Oregon and Kentucky -- to reach a majority, though the threshold is a purely symbolic milestone.

Obama added endorsements from another three party officials or "superdelegates" Monday, and is now less than 120 total delegates away from the total of 2,025 needed to secure the nomination, according to independent website RealClearPolitics.

But the Clinton campaign maintains the real victory threshold is 2,209 -- including Michigan and Florida, which held primaries but had delegates stripped away by Democratic bosses after breaking scheduling rules.

Obama leads Clinton in every metric of the Democratic race: pledged delegates, superdelegates, and the popular vote of certified nomination contests.

In a symbolic moment, Robert Byrd of West Virginia, a 90-year-old Democratic titan who has spent half a century in the Senate, backed Obama, despite his beloved home state voting overwhelmingly for Clinton last week.

Byrd was briefly a member of the Ku Klux Klan but long ago renounced his early racist leanings, and his support of Obama bolsters the Illinois senator's calls for reconciliation as he tries to become the first black US president.

While his team grappled with Clinton, Obama was also under attack from McCain who slammed his offer to hold talks without preconditions, but after preparatory low-level diplomacy, with Iran and other US foes.

The Arizona senator accused Obama of underestimating the threat posed by Iran and showing "inexperience and reckless judgment." Obama shot back that Iran had only grown as a threat because of the "Bush-McCain policy of fighting an endless war in Iraq."

A Suffolk University poll had Obama up in Oregon by 45 percent to 41 percent with eight percent of likely voters undecided. Clinton led in Kentucky, by 51 percent to 25 percent with 11 percent undecided.

Obama meanwhile rode to the defense of his wife, after an advertisement by the Tennessee Republican Party pounced on her remark this year that "for the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country."

"If they think that they're going to try to make Michelle an issue in this campaign, they should be careful, because that I find unacceptable, the notion that you start attacking my wife or my family," Obama told ABC television.

AFP, May 19, 2008

ASHLAND, Ore. - Andy Stallman supports Sen. Barack Obama, but didn't need much motivation to see former President Bill Clinton and his daughter, Chelsea, in southern Oregon this weekend.

"If you don't walk two blocks to hear the former president speak, that's apathy," Stallman said Sunday.

From Ashland and Astoria to Baker City and Bend, many Oregonians haven't had to travel more than a few blocks to see the former president campaign for his wife this primary season.

On a day when an estimated 60,000 Portlanders turned out to see Obama speak, a crowd of about 1,100 stood in a sunny courtyard at Southern Oregon University to hear the Clintons.

Some arrived three hours before the event's scheduled time of 5:15 p.m. to assure themselves a chance to get close, the Mail Tribune newspaper of Medford reported.

"I wasn't sure what the crowds would be like and I wanted to be among the first in line," Hilary-Morgan Watt, a student at Southern Oregon University, told the newspaper. "I really wanted to shake Bill Clinton's hand."

Though polls show Obama leading in Oregon, Watt said she thought there was still a chance for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to take the Oregon primary.

"I think there's still a lot of people who can be swayed," she said. "Lots of my peers aren't aware of the issues."

Clinton spoke for about an hour, touching on numerous issues. He repeated the notion that Hillary Clinton would do better than Obama against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, and made much of her besting Obama in the swing states of Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania.

He drew cheers from students when he noted that his wife would fight to increase the amount of Pell grants for students, make student loans cheaper, and recruit the new teachers that public schools will need.

The former president then shook hands with dozens of people and signed autographs. As the crowd drifted away, some doubted whether he had changed any minds.

"I think he just reinforced what people were already thinking," said Bob Spurlock of Medford. "Tuesday will be a big tell-all."

The Clintons also spoke in Salem on Sunday. Though it was Bill Clinton's third trip to the mid-Willamette Valley in recent weeks, it was Chelsea Clinton's first stop in the capital city.

In Ashland and Salem, she used a version of a line that has been a hit for her on the campaign trail.

"As proud as I am of my dad and what he's done, I'm even more proud of my mom and what she will do," Chelsea Clinton said in Salem. "Because I think my mom will be a better president."

In her bid, women see own empowerment

ELEANOR, W.Va - It was a rain-spitting, windy, ugly night and there were 1,000 reasons for the people crammed into the small high school gymnasium to not come, and, really, only one reason why they did. After all, the way the media and anyone with a blog and a Wi-Fi connection told it, the race was over and their candidate had lost.

Barack Obama is supposed to be the rock star of the campaign, the one with the soaring change-is-gonna-come speeches and Springsteenian crowds. But watching women excitedly approach Hillary Clinton here, sometimes in family groups spanning three generations, clutching her autobiography, was a vivid reminder that, regardless of which candidate captures the Democratic presidential nomination, it will be a transformational moment in American politics.

Clinton gave them the one thing they wanted - hope. Hope in her. And hope in the sheer power of hard work. "One thing to know about me is that I might get knocked down, but I get up," she said.

The people, her people, roared. There was little if any mention in her speech of the cold-water reality of her circumstance, that even as Clinton stood here in this small town ("The cleanest city in West Virginia," it calls itself) on that rain-swept night a week ago Sunday, Obama was somewhere squirreling away superdelegates as if winter were near.

Given her brave face, it isn't surprising that her supporters didn't see the end coming soon.

"I think she's going to win. It's going to go right down to the wire," said Rose McPhail, a resident of nearby Charleston. "It's not finished until the last vote is in."

Added her friend Frankie Reinskopf: "She's a fighter. She's what we need."

Both women had driven through twisting two-lane roads in the rain to see Clinton, and they were wearing plenty of Hillary gear.

'No surrender'

As Clinton toured the state last week before the West Virginia primary, many of her supporters said the same. Not only did they think Clinton represented their own struggles and lost opportunities, but they believed, firmly believed, she could capture the nomination - delegate counts, the press and cable-news talking heads be dammed.

Why? Because Clinton herself was telling them so, over and over again, selling it. As she declared at her victory speech in Charleston on Tuesday night, after blowing out Obama: "This race isn't over." She said she was staying in, past Kentucky and Oregon, which hold their primaries Tuesday. On to Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota. John Kerry's campaign theme song was "No Surrender," but Clinton is living it.

Indeed, the more that the experts declared Clinton's candidacy finished during these last few weeks, the angrier her hard-core supporters seemed to become, with many saying that for them, it would be Clinton or nothing.

Clinton fanned the flames, quoting the town's namesake, Eleanor Roosevelt: "A woman is like a tea bag. You never know how strong she is until she's in hot water."

There can be no overstating Clinton's accomplishments so far. She has made history as the first viable female presidential candidate. One could argue that Clinton has transcended her sex, being viewed in some circles as a tougher, more "masculine" candidate than Obama. (One union leader even spoke of her "testicular fortitude.")

Sarah Brewer, an expert on women in politics at American University in Washington, said regardless of the outcome, Clinton has forever altered the political dynamic.

"Her tenacity has been an incredible symbol for women who come after her," Brewer said. "The expectation of what to expect from a woman candidate has been changed."

'Never hurts to hope'

Five months into the most bruising presidential primary fight anyone can remember, Clinton was zigzagging last week through states such as West Virginia like a no-name neophyte. Any talk of coasting on "the brand" was long gone, her aura of invincibility having evaporated after her first loss, out of the box, to Obama in Iowa. Everywhere she went, the clock seemed to be ticking like a telltale heart.

Earlier that Sunday she was in the town of Grafton, a weather-beaten hamlet whose best days left with the decline of the B&O railroad.

Mike and Maria Kendall had been sitting in the old B&O depot for two hours when Clinton arrived. Maria was one of the fortunate ones because people in wheelchairs were admitted early.

Both the Kendalls acknowledged their candidate was at a disadvantage, but that scarcely seemed to matter.

"You know the odds are against it," Mike Kendall said, "but it never hurts to hope. I mean, can you imagine, the first woman president?"

Also in the small crowd - the room could hold only about 100 people - was Marcia Slavin, who saw Franklin Roosevelt when he came through Grafton by train more than 70 years ago.

"A lot of weaker people would have given up by now," Slavin said.

Both Slavin and her husband were pharmacists, she said. But he always made more money and received more job opportunities. That's why she waited in the rain, because she believes Clinton can be the first woman president.

"She's made it possible for us to reach our rightful place," Slavin said.

Outside, more than 300 residents gathered on the grassy hill overlooking the depot, shivering in the pelting rain.

They began a chant. HILLARY. HILLARY.

Then another:

When I say "madam," you say "president."

Madam ... President.

Madam ... President.

Also outside the depot was a young girl, maybe 8, wearing a Sunday dress with tights. She gripped a yellow carnation with both hands. She was chanting too.

It's 'about all of us'

That Sunday afternoon in Grafton, on Mother's Day, Clinton may have crystallized her reasons for staying in the race even as critics wondered why she would not simply leave.

"Now, if you are a woman of a certain age, as I am, you have likely experienced a moment along the way when your own sense of limitless possibility collided with a harsher reality," she told the gathering.

Then she read from women's letters of encouragement.

"Don't give up," read one. "I'm supporting you looking at my girls and knowing that when the going gets tough, you keep forging ahead."

Clinton said she shared the letters "because the underlying lesson is not so much about me but about all of us."

But some wonder if is there a price to be paid for Clinton's recent gender- and class-based drum-beating. If she does concede in the next few days or weeks, will those women who support her feel betrayed or cheated - not necessarily by her but by those same, larger, spectral forces they've run up against in their own lives?

And what about that white, blue-collar worker whom Clinton has courted? Where does he go?

Already, many supporters are calling for a march on the Democratic National Committee headquarters to demand that Clinton's delegates from the disputed primaries in Florida and Michigan be seated. What happens if that doesn't occur and Clinton's last hope vanishes?

Will they defect to John McCain or not vote at all? And where does her responsibility now lie, to the women who see themselves reflected in her candidacy - or to the Democratic Party as a whole, now fissuring under the pressure of race and gender issues?

Has the candidate become what she never wanted to be - just a cause? What happens when the cause is lost?

Life experiences

Clinton scheduled five events for the Monday before the primary, sprinting across the state in a mad dash, even as Obama appeared for a single speech and departed.

In the economically dispirited town of Logan, Clinton rallied a school gymnasium packed 1,000-strong with attacks on Big Oil, Wall Street and insurance companies.

Afterward, the attendees kibitzed on the sidewalk outside the gymnasium.

"I'm not political," said Alice Lowe of Logan. "I'm motivated by life experiences. I just think she's had those experiences."

"I get so mad," she said, when the media suggest the race is over.

Lowe views Obama as being carried by a wave of younger, privileged voters. "Their parents are paying their bills. Their parents are buying their gas," she said.

The people's champion

Dilapidation hovers in the air. Logan, once a coal-mining center, has less than half the number of residents it had in 1950.

To Clinton's supporters there, Obama is a ghost, a cipher, a media creation. A nurse, Cristi Atkins, derisively called him "No-bama."

Robby Shell, a Logan resident, said "working people, blue-collar people, trust Hillary Clinton. They don't know Obama."

Shell predicted Clinton would win the next day's primary by 40 points. "You heard it here first," he joked.

Turns out, Shell was awfully close. Clinton won by 41 points.

In her victory speech, she talked of the people for whom she's running, "for the nurse on her second shift, for the worker on the line, for the waitress on her feet, for the small business owner, the farmer, the teacher, the coal miner, the trucker, the soldier, the veteran, the college student."

Of them, she said, "You will never quit, and I won't either."

Clinton's close advisers insist her extended fight isn't damaging the party, isn't cleaving white from black, the college-educated from the blue-collar worker. All will be good come November, even if some bitterness lingers on the losing side. Of the ultimate Democratic nominee, said D.C. lobbyist Heather Podesta, a Clinton fundraiser, "If the [voters] don't fall in love, they'll fall in line."

But Clinton has the power to script her own final act, to help assuage the hurt feelings of the supporters who will mourn the day, if it comes, when she surrenders. How she handles that could help determine her legacy and the party's chances in November.

Brewer, the American University professor, said that if that time comes, she believes Clinton will depart in a way that will build on her achievements. And no one will have to tell her.

"She, of all people," Brewer said, "knows the historic nature of what she's taken on."

By James Oliphant , Chicago Tribune, May 18, 2008

NEW YORK (AP) - Philipina Heintzman, 81, drove 80 miles across the South Dakota prairie to experience history in the making: a woman running for president, something she never dreamed as a child that she would live to see.

That event, a Hillary Rodham Clinton rally in Bath on Thursday, also marked history unraveling.

As Clinton's prospects sink in the Democratic race, Heintzman and many women like her are feeling the poignant letdown of seeing the first woman with a strong chance at the presidency fall short.

"It would hurt my feelings a lot because I think she should be No. 1, she should be president," Heintzman said of Clinton's likely loss to Barack Obama. "Give a woman a chance to do something good."

From young feminist activists to the grandmothers who embrace Clinton along the rope line at her campaign events, many women who voted in large numbers for the former first lady during the primaries have begun mourning the turn of events. They know their dream of electing a female president this year probably will not come to pass - and wonder when it ever will.

"For us, getting a woman elected is major," said Laurine Glynn, 72, of New York City. "We've waited, fought a lot for this. I do worry that my generation won't see a female president."

"Women are feeling a lot of sadness, disappointment and some anger as they look back at what happened in this race," said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

And at least part of that anger, Walsh says, is directed at the sexism that some feel seriously harmed the former first lady's candidacy - from T-shirts bearing photos of Clinton and Obama with the slogan "Bros Before Hos" to Hillary Clinton nutcrackers sold in airports.

Women - especially older white women - have been at the center of Clinton's electoral base. During the primaries, she bested Obama among women overall 52-45 percent. Among women over 65, Clinton won by 61 percent to Obama's 34 percent.

Obama advisers note that he defeated Clinton among women in at least 12 states during the primary contest, in part because of overwhelming support for his candidacy among black women. Obama would be the first black president.

And among women under 30, Obama beat Clinton overall by a margin of 56-43 percent - suggesting that they were more inspired by Obama's message of hope and political change than they were by the prospect of electing one of their own.

Paula Horwitz, 84, of Pittsburgh, said some younger women "just don't understand. They'll elect a man, and the men will keep on telling the women what to do." Horwitz displayed a Clinton sign in her front yard for the Pennsylvania primary won by the New York senator.

The generational rift became even more apparent last week, when NARAL Pro-Choice America, a leading abortion rights advocacy organization dominated by white female activists, endorsed Obama over Clinton - producing an outcry among many in the women's movement who felt the group had betrayed one of its own.

Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL who supports Obama, said Clinton didn't stand for the new direction that voters - including many women - now crave.

"Hillary Clinton represents the status quo at best, and keeps us rooted in a place we need to move from," Michelman said. "I've watched younger women come into their adult lives from a different set of experiences, and Hillary Clinton was not the president to make the transition to the newly inspired movement that we need."

For many women, Clinton's likely fate has also brought nagging questions for the future: Has the former first lady blazed a path, making it easier for the next wave of female candidates? Or has she merely shown how difficult it will be? And who might succeed her?

"What Hillary has done - win, lose or draw - has permanently changed the picture," says Marie Wilson, president of the White House Project, which trains women to run for office. "Next time, we're not going to have to prove that the public will vote for a woman. We won't have to prove competency. She has succeeded at that level."

Wilson pointed to several women with promising political futures who could one day seek the White House: Democratic Govs. Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas and Janet Napolitano of Arizona; Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; and Republicans like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and business executive Carly Fiorina. However, none has the name recognition, fundraising network or political connections Clinton was able to draw upon from the early days of her run.

Clinton's pioneering candidacy also won't necessarily mean the next female contender is going to have an easier time of it, warns Walsh.

"It will still be rough for women to come after her," she says. "They'll have to walk that balance of being strong and tough, compassionate and soft. When you're tough, you're called shrill, and the B-word. When you mist over, they say you're weeping."

To feminist writer Linda Hirshman, Clinton's likely defeat signals a harsh reality that future female candidates will need to consider.

"It shows how fragile the loyalty and commitment of women to a female candidate is. That's a pretty scary thing," says Hirshman. "She can count on the female electorate to divide badly and not be reliable."

For their part, Obama advisers said they believe that most of Clinton's female supporters will come their way eventually and won't throw their backing to Republican John McCain. The New York senator has already pledged to work actively on behalf of the Democratic nominee.

Many Clinton supporters hold out hope that Obama might consider choosing Clinton as his running mate. And since she is still relatively young at 60, some can envision another presidential bid.

Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who is supporting Obama, said his campaign was well aware of the disappointment Clinton's female supporters are likely to feel if she loses the race.

"I think the most important thing is that we stay focused on being incredibly respectful and admiring of who Hillary Clinton is as a person and what she represents as a leader," McCaskill said. "She's run a very strong race and deserves the passionate support she's received. I think the respect in the Obama campaign is genuine - we don't have any problem understanding why millions support Hillary Clinton."

By JOCELYN NOVECK and BETH FOUHY , The Associated Press, May 18, 2008

The post-mortems continue ... The New York Times looks at the role of gender. "Along with the usual post-mortems about strategy, message and money, Mrs. Clinton's all-but-certain defeat brings with it a reckoning about what her run represents for women: a historic if incomplete triumph or a depressing reminder of why few pursue high office in the first place. The answers have immediate political implications. If many of Mrs. Clinton's legions of female supporters believe she was undone even in part by gender discrimination, how eagerly will they embrace Senator Barack Obama, the man who beat her?"

More: " 'When people look at the arc of the campaign, it will be seen that being a woman, in the end, was not a detriment and if anything it was a help to her,' the presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin said in an interview. Mrs. Clinton's campaign is faltering, she added, because of 'strategic, tactical things that have nothing to do with her being a woman.' "

Also, don't miss this Geraldine Ferraro quote: "Ms. Ferraro, who clashed with the Obama campaign about whether she made a racially offensive remark, said she might not [vote for Obama] either. 'I think Obama was terribly sexist,' she said."

Here's another post-mortem from the New Republic's Michelle Cottle. It's a fascinating read of what went wrong in Hillaryland.

Had Clinton overtaken Obama -- thanks mostly to the nervousness of Dems about Obama's relationships with his pastor and '60s radicals like William Ayers -- would Clinton be facing criticism of her own '60s past? The Washington Post takes a look. "When Hillary Rodham Clinton questioned rival Barack Obama's ties to 1960s radicals, her comments baffled two retired Bay Area lawyers who knew Clinton in the summer of 1971 when she worked as an intern at a left-wing law firm in Oakland, Calif., that defended communists and Black Panthers. 'She's a hypocrite,' Doris B. Walker, 89, who was a member of the American Communist Party, said in an interview last week. 'She had to know who we were and what kinds of cases we were handling. We had a very left-wing reputation, including civil rights, constitutional law, racist problems.' "

"Malcolm Burnstein, 74, a partner at the firm who worked closely with Clinton during her internship, said he was traveling in Pennsylvania in April when Clinton attacked Obama for his past interactions with William Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn, members of Students for a Democratic Society who went on to found the bomb-making Weather Underground. 'Given her background, it was quite hypocritical,' Burnstein said. 'I almost called the Philadelphia Inquirer. I saw what she and her campaign were saying about Ayers and I thought, "Well, if you're going to talk about that totally bit of irrelevant nonsense, I'll talk about your career with us." ' "

By Domenico Montanaro, MSNBC, May 19, 2008

It seems absurd to keep thinking Hillary Clinton is going to drop out of the race before the Democratic National Convention in August.

The convention is where they officially declare the nominees of the party. The delegates vote and choose. If they don't get a clear winner, then the delegates are released and they can vote for whomever.

Popular votes be damned. Let the vote go to the convention. Hillary should only drop if Barack Obama gets the number of delegate votes needed and not before.




By Foster Keith, The Arizona Republic, May 19, 2008

Money still matters in America's election, but its role is changing

BARACK OBAMA is the most prodigious fund-raiser in the history of American politics. In March, the latest month for which figures are available (new ones are expected soon for April), he raised $41m. Compare the freshman senator's haul with that of the former first lady, Hillary Clinton, who is on first-name terms with more than a few billionaires. She raised $20m, an outstanding figure in any other context.

A further contrast is provided with John McCain. The Republicans traditionally enjoy a fund-raising advantage, but not this year (especially not if the Democrats' pots of money are eventually combined). The Arizonan senator raised just $15m in March and has just seen a senior fund-raiser quit over links to lobbyists. Mr McCain will probably join the public financing system for the general election, which provides public money but puts limits on his spending. Mr Obama will thus have far more to throw around, although Mr McCain may embarrass his rival for backing away from saying last year that he would "aggressively pursue" an agreement between candidates for both to take public financing.

But raw money may not be quite as important as it was long thought to be. Cash may - or may not - flow to strong candidates, but it does not simply make candidates strong. Consider the evidence from the Republican primaries, where the two best-funded campaigns were those of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. The former sank slowly but inexorably; the latter foundered after a delayed launch. In contrast, the dirt-poor campaign of Mike Huckabee ran strong for surprisingly long; he won the Iowa caucus and shook up the race. And Mr McCain, the eventual nominee, ran on fumes for much of 2007.

Even rich campaigns covet "earned media", or positive coverage in the news, rather than the kind that is bought. Any number of expensive 30-second commercials would fail to counteract a few bad news cycles in a row. Mr McCain's strategy of granting the press close and frequent access, honed in his 2000 presidential run, may have kept his campaign alive in the darkest days of last year. Nor is it clear that money has been an overwhelming boost to Mr Obama so far. He has flourished because of his personality, his organisational savvy and disciplined message. The races in which he tried to overcome a deficit with Mrs Clinton through big spending (Ohio, Pennsylvania) he failed to turn around.

But Mr Obama's fund-raising has given him one clear advantage: an army of small, activist donors. Such people are more likely than average to vote, and to volunteer to get others out. Battalions of such volunteers will produce a formidable operation in November, one that was honed in the long primary season. His activists and his money may also help to lure new voters - notably the young and the black - to the polls.

Money matters in particular for television advertising, which is expensive and which will play a role in close states; less informed voters make up their minds late, influenced by television ads. Here, however, Mr McCain may be able to blunt some of Mr Obama's advantage. The Republican National Committee can spend on supporting his run. But so can outside groups, so-called "527s" (named after the section of the McCain-Feingold law that created them). Such groups can place political ads as long as they do not co-ordinate with campaigns, and as long as they do not explicitly endorse a candidate.

Political ads can be both nasty and effective. Famously Lyndon Johnson ran one in 1964 to suggest that Barry Goldwater would be too quick with the nuclear trigger. In 2004 a devastating ad was taken out by "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth", an outside group that disputed John Kerry's heroism in Vietnam. Mr Obama has asked donors not to give to 527s this year, but rather to give directly to his campaign.

Finally, there is the wild card of the internet. With the maturation of YouTube and other non-traditional channels, neither campaign can control what is broadcast or watched. Several home-made ads had wide reach in the primary season. So while the Obama campaign's wealth may be a sign of vigour, it guarantees little.

The Economist, May 19, 2008

It's been a tedious number of months, and even the most enthused election nerds among us are starting to cry, "enough!" Indeed, I myself have even avoided writing about the race, thinking that, if I didn't acknowledge it, the mindless, droning thing might just go away.

Alas, millions of dollars, a number of missteps and one John Edwards Obama endorsement later, it appears that Sen. Hillary Clinton is nearing the end of her hard-fought struggle for the nomination. And though there has been the tendency to prematurely and triumphantly announce the securing of the nomination by either candidate, the recent flood of superdelegates announcing their support for Obama, the demographic profile of her recent supporters and Edwards' choice to endorse Obama - which is worth its weight in gold - are all convincing evidence that Obama has obtained the nomination.

Granted, Clinton will likely rough it out a bit longer. Her campaign, though in debt and faltering in momentum, is a prime platform for reshaping her public image and carving out a new role in the party. It's highly doubtful she would run as vice president, and the prospect of taking up her husband's role as author and roaming lecturer are dim. Having never actually been president, it would likely be a future of insignificance.

Rather, in her remaining campaign, Clinton will likely mend ties, build congeniality and test run the type of politician she plans to be after the electoral votes have been counted in November. The near future also provides Clinton with a valuable opportunity to earn back some the $11 million or so she has lent to her own campaign in her bid for the nomination.

However dull the process has become, it is important that both camps in the Democratic primary give the contest for the nomination sufficient time to come to its conclusion. After the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6, Obama aides hastened to declare the magnitude of his North Carolina win and the relative insignificance of Clinton's win in Indiana - as though her win was of a much smaller margin than had been predicted for the state.

While the politicking and spinning of results is to be expected, if the nominee is seen as being democratically undeserving of the nomination, it could dampen Democratic support in November.

It would be wise for the Obama campaign to resist claiming victory too soon. Rather, by waiting, the Obama camp will highlight its legitimacy.

By Sarah Gaither, The Daily of the University of Washington, May 19, 2008

WASHINGTON - There's nothing quite like a happy ending - or at least what seems to pass for one.

Maybe that's why so many Democrats want to see a Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton ticket this fall.

The idea of a dream team is gaining ground again, now that Obama's close to locking up the nomination. The latest polls say about 60 per cent support it.

Some party luminaries are pushing it, including Mario Cuomo, the former governor of New York, and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell.

It would be an unbeatable union, say fans of the merger. An African-American and a woman, inspiration and experience, poetry and policy - all in one package.

His popularity among blacks, the young and well-educated, affluent Americans would blend with Clinton's draw among women, seniors and average, white, male Joes.

It's a partnership that could reunite a party split along class and racial lines laid bare in an intense, bitter campaign.

"Why stop having a nominee who has the support of 51 per cent of Democrats when we could have a dream team ticket that has won 100 per cent?" asks VoteBoth, a group backed by some prominent Clinton supporters that's urging people to sign an online petition.

But what are the chances it will actually happen?

"The odds are tiny," said Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia.

"A lot of this comes down to personal chemistry. It's not there," said Sabato.

"You can't rule it out entirely. It's always posssible the poohbahs in the Demcoratic party will insist on it."

On that score, some are vehemently opposed.

Party icon Senator Ted Kennedy scorched the union by saying he hoped Obama would choose someone who's "in tune with his appeal for the nobler aspirations of the American people."

"I think if we had real leadership - as we do with Barack Obama - in the number-two spot as well, it'd be enormously helpful."

There's no question there's an enormous amount of antipathy between the two camps. One pundit has quipped that Obama would have to have his food checked if Clinton joined him in the White House.

After all, Clinton has spent the last few months portraying Obama as an inexperienced lightweight who can't be trusted to run the country and has a problem gettting whites to vote for him.

Obama, meantime, has pegged Clinton as part of the old school of divisive politics who will say anything to get elected.

Could they get past all that?

"These are professionals - They know how to do this," said Allan Lichtman, a political historian and author at American University.

Bitter rivals can make successful allies, he argued, including John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson in 1960.

Ronald Reagan also picked George H.W. Bush in 1980, after a tense campaign where Bush referred to his rival's policies as "vodoo economics."

Would Clinton want the job?

"Why not?" asks Lichtman, who argues it would keep her in the limelight and set her up for a run in 2012 if Obama loses to Republican John McCain this fall, as long as the party doesn't blame her.

She'd also be the heir apparent in 2016 if Obama served out two terms.

But presidential scholar Stephen Hess wonders why Obama would bother navigating the potential minefield that comes with Clinton and all her baggage.

"The first rule of picking a vice-president is do no harm. They make no difference anyway. Who actually votes for the vice-president?" asks Hess, an adviser to several former presidents.

"There are a lot of perfectly acceptable candidates for him. It's not like he has to take her. And she brings Bill along. It's just plain awkward. There's no need to complicate things."

Besides, said Hess, Obama doesn't need the New York senator, who's thrived in large states during the primaries, to beat McCain as he struggles to overcome the deep unpopularity of President George W. Bush.

"Could you really imagine a Democrat at this point losing New York or California?"

And Clinton, he argued, wouldn't help Obama capture the few states he'll likely lose because he's black.

"I don't see anything about Clinton that lessens that racial tension."

Other analysts say the benefits of Clinton as a running mate are overstated.

Women who've flocked to her will line up behind Obama when the dust settles, they argue, despite their anger now about Clinton's thwarted hopes.

And while it may be the new conventional widsom of American politics that white working class voters carry the key to the presidency, politics professor Alan Abramowitz at Emory University doesn't buy it.

That segment of voters has been shrinking for decades, Abramowitz said in a recent analysis, while the number of professionals and managers has been rising.

Among Democratic voters, professionals and managers now outnumber labourers by about two to one.

"Someone should tell Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama about this and maybe the press too," said Abramowitz.

There are other choices with wide appeal for blue-collar workers, including former candidate John Edwards, a populist who gave Obama a big boost with his endorsement last week.

Still, Edwards, who ran for the nomination in 2004 and was John Kerry's vice-presidential pick, doesn't really fit into Obama's overriding message of change any more than Clinton.

There are a handful of others often cited as possibilities, including Senator Jim Webb of Virginia, who has military credentials as a Vietnam War veteran with a son who served in Iraq.

Ted Strickland, a former Ohio governor, was once a Methodist minister who could help Obama connect with religious voters. So could Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, a former missionary.

Rendell is highly popular in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania and a Clinton supporter to boot.

And Senator Claire McCaskill from Missouri is a plain-talking former prosecutor who could bring her state into play for Obama.

Clinton has other disadvantages besides her troubled history with Bill in the White House and all the scandals they endured.

She'd provide instant ammunition for Republicans after telling voters that Obama would represent a "leap of faith" and McCain is more qualified to be president. Bill once said Obama would be a "roll of the dice."

But if the Obama-Clinton partnership actually did happen, said Lichtman, it would help sustain a lot of momentum for Democrats, who've attracted so many new voters during the primaries.

"What a wonderful message to have such an envelope-pushing ticket. It sends a signal that anyone can be part of the American dream."

The Canadian Press, May 18, 2008

Lifelong Democrat Kathleen Cowley watches with disdain as huge crowds hang on Sen. Barack Obama's every word. She dismisses Obama's "intolerable logic." She turns the channel on pundits who chalk up Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's primary victories to little more than racism. And she doesn't much care for the notion that while Obama is fresh and inspiring, Clinton is, by implication, old and mean.

"There's just been an attitude that if you aren't voting for Barack Obama, then you're a racist," said Cowley, 49, a mother of four from Massachusetts who has vowed to never back the senator from Illinois. "I just find that intolerable. I feel like when the members of the media talk about how [Obama's supporters] would react, they say, 'Well, we can't take the vote away from African Americans.' Well, excuse me, there's a higher percentage of women."

A Democratic race that a couple of months ago was celebrated as a march toward history -- the chance to nominate the nation's first woman or African American as a major-party candidate -- threatens to leave lingering bitterness, especially among Clinton supporters, whose candidate is running out of ways to win.

Some women, like Cowley, complain that Clinton has been disrespected and mistreated by the media and the political establishment. Many see Obama as equally condescending, dismissing Clinton's foreign policy role as first lady, pulling out her chair for her at debates and suggesting offhand during one debate that she was "likable enough."

"The sexist crap that comes out of people's mouths is really scary to me," said Amilyn Lanning, 38, a Zionsville, Pa., voter who supported Clinton in last month's primary. "There's a lot of the b-word being thrown about, even in jest by comedians. There's a lot of comments made about her pantsuits, and the way she dresses. There's a viciousness."

With equal ire, many African Americans complain about Clinton's negativity and have accused her camp of using Obama's race against him. Her comment that his "support among working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening again" was just the latest in a series of over-the-line comments, some said.

And many among the legions of young voters who have flocked to Obama say their enthusiasm is more about him than about the Democratic Party and it would not necessarily transfer to Clinton if she won the nomination. In Indiana, about six in 10 Obama voters under age 30 said they will be dissatisfied if Clinton is the nominee and about half said the same in North Carolina, according to exit polls.

Nationally, about a quarter of Clinton supporters in a Washington Post-ABC News poll said that if she loses they will ditch the Democratic Party and Obama for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). A similar number of Obama backers said they will pick the Republican this fall if Clinton becomes the nominee. In both Indiana and North Carolina, majorities of African American voters said they will be unhappy if Clinton is at the top of the ticket.

Acutely aware of these dynamics, the campaigns have sought to balance tactics against tact, so that the rift between the two Democrats -- and their backers -- doesn't grow so wide that the winner can't pull the party back together. Since the May 6 contests in Indiana and North Carolina, Obama has tried to ease much of the animosity by turning his attention to McCain, highlighting differences with Clinton only in response to voters or the news media. Clinton has also shifted some of her strategy, running positive ads in West Virginia rather than the negative ones she aired in previous states.

Put together, Clinton's coalition of women and working-class white voters along with Obama's alliance of African Americans and young voters could be a potentially unstoppable Democratic force in the fall. But, at least for now, many on both sides said they have been too put off and have become too embittered to pull together for the party if their candidate isn't on the ballot.

To Veronica Tonay, 48, a psychology professor at the University of California at Santa Cruz and a Clinton supporter, Obama has become a pop star, the contestant on "American Idol" who wins votes because he's cute, while the best singer is eliminated.

"We are electing the leader of the free world, and that person has a finger on the nuclear launch code," she said. "It's not about likability." Her stance was cemented when a young woman in one of her classes declared that she wouldn't vote for Clinton because "she is not a beautiful woman."

If Obama is the nominee, Tonay said, McCain will be just fine with her. "In the end, I won't vote for Obama because I don't know who he is, and I don't trust him," she said. "If McCain gets in, he would have a weak presidency, and we would have a Democratic Congress anyway. Obama could do more damage."

Divisive primary fights followed by a period of kissing and making up are something of a ritual in presidential campaigns. It happened in 1860, when Abraham Lincoln brought his three challengers for the Republican nomination into his Cabinet. One hundred years later, John F. Kennedy won the Democratic nomination and avoided an intraparty feud by picking Lyndon B. Johnson as his running mate, though in the late stages of the primaries they had been fierce rivals.

In this year's Republican race, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney became an active supporter of McCain after the two campaigned against each other with open antipathy. Romney is now thought to have an outside chance of being McCain's running mate.

But the Obama-Clinton fight has gone on so long and the ill will has become so intense that even if the candidates can heal the party, as both have vowed to do, they will have to spend critical campaign time dealing with those wounds rather than taking on McCain.

"You can't afford to leak away all of these Democrats come November," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. The Democratic nominee "will have to spend weeks solidifying the base," he said. ". . . Now you're cutting into the time you have to begin making the case to independents, because first you've got to take care of business at home."

Patricia Sparrow, 53, said there's nothing Clinton could do to win her over. She changed her registration from Republican to Democrat this year to cast her ballot for Obama after her son started talking about him. But she said a Clinton-McCain matchup in November would send her back to her old party -- even though she disagrees with McCain's position on Iraq -- because she finds Clinton so divisive.

"With Hillary Clinton, it's politics as usual -- old-school backbiting. I have no use for [her]," said Sparrow, who runs a soup kitchen near her home in Norfolk, Mass. "I would probably vote for McCain even though I don't want to. . . . I would hope he would be swayed by public opinion on the war."

There may not be enough time to win over Cowley, who calls Clinton "brilliant" and has spent two hours a day for the last three months calling voters to talk about Clinton's health-care plan, her experience and her plan to end the war in Iraq.

"In my heart I just can't bring myself to [vote for Obama], and I feel like a schlep," she said. "I'm not going to be voting for him, and it irritates me. Nobody's concerned about the women. I don't think I can vote for McCain. I guess I'll have to sit it out."

By Krissah Williams, The Washington Post, May 19, 2008

Senator Barack Obama's favorite campaign rallying cry is, "Fired up! Ready to go!" But when the Democratic Party's leading presidential hopeful visits Florida this week, he's likely to hear a grouchier refrain, something along the lines of, "It's about time!"

The less than passionate reception shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has followed the Sunshine State's latest election saga - least of all Obama, who hasn't visited the crucial battleground all year. Because the state's presidential primary was moved up to January 29, in violation of party rules, the Democratic National Committee effectively nullified the vote in advance and refused to seat any of Florida's Democratic delegates at this summer's convention (the Republicans, by contrast, only cut their delegate counts in half). Democratic rivals Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton also signed pledges not to campaign in Florida until after its primary. But once Clinton's 17-point victory was announced that night, she immediately appeared in Ft. Lauderdale to tell voters she would fight to get Florida's delegates seated.

Obama, by contrast, was nowhere to be found and still hasn't visited the state since. Many Florida Democrats consider him AWOL and even indifferent to their efforts to get the DNC to reinstate their delegates and make their January votes count. Obama "has repair work to do," says Democratic state Senator Nan Rich, a South Florida Clinton backer. "Rank-and-file Democrats here are frankly distressed by the fact that he appears disconnected from the state."

Granted, Clinton's fight on Florida's behalf is driven more by desperation than by principle. She didn't challenge the DNC's draconian sanctions early in the campaign when she was well ahead in the polls; but now she needs Florida's delegates and popular vote to have even a small chance to grab the nomination. Obama didn't question the DNC either; and now that he's the front-runner it's in his best interest to simply run out the clock. But that kind of political calculus isn't going to ease bruised feelings in the state.

Obama may now have the Democratic nomination all but sewn up, and even reinstating the delegates from Florida and Michigan (the other state sanctioned by the DNC for holding an early primary) almost certainly wouldn't change that. But memories of the 2000 presidential election recount crisis should be enough to dissuade a candidate from dissing Florida, the burgeoning, bellwether swing state with a mother lode of independent voters (almost a fifth of the electorate). And of all the large states Obama has had trouble winning in the primaries, Florida presents one of his biggest challenges in the general election. His bond with Latino voters is tepid at best; the Jewish community was wary of Obama's commitment to Israel well before President Bush hurled last week's "appeasement" charges his way; Florida's elderly, particularly women, form a solid Clinton base, and PR problems like Reverend Jeremiah Wright and the elitist label remain a wall between Obama and many northern Floridians, especially in the state's conservative, blue-collar Panhandle.

Obama supporters insist he's poised to tackle all those obstacles during his three-day tour of Florida starting Wednesday. State Representative Dan Gelber, Florida's House Minority Leader and an Obama backer, acknowledges Obama "hasn't been here," but he argues that his absence "is only going to enhance his stature. People want to see him, hear him." U.S. Representative Robert Wexler, a Florida Democrat who co-chairs Obama's state campaign, believes the Senator will get a warmer welcome than expected: "He's extremely appealing to independent voters and disaffected Republicans. This week really begins his general election campaign in terms of reaching out to them."

Wexler also doesn't think Obama has as much catching up to do in Florida as his critics claim. While a Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters released this month shows that Clinton would beat the presumptive Republican candidate, Senator John McCain, 49% to 41%, Obama trails McCain by only a point in the state, 44% to 43%. The Obama camp, in fact, feels his positions compare favorably to McCain's on issues Floridians will care about most in November. Those include abortion (Obama is pro-choice while McCain has pledged to seat Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade); privatizing Social Security, which McCain supports but which Obama, like most of Florida's massive retiree bloc, opposes; and a federal catastrophe insurance fund, which McCain opposes in the form that passed the House of Representatives this year but which Obama, like so many hurricane-battered Floridians, backs.

And it's hard to discount Obama's overwhelming support among African-Americans. In 2000 they channeled their anger at then Republican Governor Jeb Bush to the voting booth, and their massive turnout is widely credited with making the race in Florida so tight. "I think they're poised to play an even more important role this time," says Wexler. "They'll provide an enormous boost."

Still, Obama's Florida itinerary suggests he knows he has bridges to build on the peninsula. On Thursday he heads to Palm Beach and Broward Counties in South Florida, a region whose large Jewish and elderly populations voted heavily for Clinton in January. On Friday he'll lunch in Miami with Cuban-Americans and give what aides call an important foreign policy speech. He'll face the Cuba policy minefield — and will have to follow McCain, who will address Miami's Cuban community on Tuesday. But Obama could actually use the opportunity to enhance his standing with Latino voters. He is the only candidate who has questioned the Bush Administration's tough embargo measures against Cuba. And while that may have been political suicide in Miami a decade ago, it appeals to Florida's swelling ranks of non-Cuban Latinos as well as younger, more moderate Cuban-Americans.

A more difficult task for Obama, however, might be uniting Florida's hardcore Democrats behind him, starting with convincing them that he's as passionate as Clinton about seating their 210 delegates (only 67 of which Obama won) at the Denver convention in August. Florida Democratic leaders like Gelber and Wexler insist Obama is indeed battling to seat the delegates and that Florida will rally behind him. After Obama's visit this week, Gelber argues, the state's Clinton-Obama tensions will dissolve: "You're going to see everyone pivot and look toward November." But Obama can't waste any more time. Florida is a big, complicated state with a lot of ground to cover, and he doesn't have that much time between now and November to get it fired up and ready to go.

By Tim Padgett, Time, May 19, 2008

Rural, blue-collar east, urban west of state to offer a primary lesson

SALEM, Ore. - Sara Gelser, a 34-year-old state lawmaker, has the profile of a model Barack Obama backer: a young, self-described "progressive" Democrat who represents a district