As the campaign enters its final stretch, a look at where the two presidential candidates are spending their time and money suggests a playing field with sharp similarities to that of the last two national elections.

According to media buy information obtained by The Fix, the campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain are currently on the air in 14 of the same states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Obama has the airwaves to himself in three states: Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. Of the 18 states his campaign initially advertised in at the start of the general election campaign, Obama remains on television in all but two: Georgia, whose rock-ribbed Republicanism always made it a long shot and Alaska where the selection of immensely popular Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate has solidified the Last Frontier for the GOP.

Obama's willingness to fund ads and run full campaigns in a slightly broader palette of states gives him a few more paths to the nomination although, as we've noted, the fall election seems likely to come down to a handful of states -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida -- that decided the 2000 and 2004 races as well.

Here's our take on the ten states most likely to switch their 2004 presidential preference. As always, the number one ranked state is the most likely to switch sides in the fall election. Agree with our picks? Disagree? The comments section welcomes all views.

To the Line!

10. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent): Democrats' irrational exuberance about their prospects in the Commonwealth have worn off of late. Obama passed on putting Gov. Tim Kaine on the ticket, and the state's largely conservative nature (with the obvious exception of northern Virginia) appears to be reasserting itself. The state is still a major target -- both Obama and McCain campaigned there earlier this week -- but the most recent independent survey suggests McCain holds an edge. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. Florida (Bush, 52 percent): Polling continues to suggest that McCain is maintaining a solid lead despite being massively outspent on television by Obama. McCain is now up on television in the state, which suggests some level of concern among his team. Still, the Sunshine state is McCain's to lose. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent): Yes, we know the polling out of the Buckeye State shows Obama as the slight favorite. And, it's clear that Democrats are in a very different -- and better -- place in the state than they were in 2004, thanks is no small part to the election of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) in 2006. And yet, most strategists on both sides are skeptical about Obama's ability to carry the state -- pointing to his struggles with rural white voters during the Democratic primaries and the appeal of Palin to that same crucial voting bloc. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Pennsylvania (Kerry, 51 percent): No state provokes as much disagreement between Democratic and Republican strategists as this one. Democrats point to the massive gains they have made in voter registration (375,000 more Democrats on the rolls than after the 2006 election) as evidence that the math is determinative in their favor. Republicans note that polling continues to show the contest close, and that the Democratic nominee hasn't taken more than 51 percent of the vote in the Keystone State in the last four national elections. (Previous ranking: 8)

6. New Hampshire (Kerry, 51 percent): Obama, McCain and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden either have or will make campaign stops in the Granite State this week and weekend, a sign of the state's importance to both campaigns' electoral vote calculus. McCain's success in the state during the 2000 and 2008 primary seasons keep the state at number six on the Line for now but recent polling suggests the Obama campaign's optimism about their chances here is well founded. (Previous ranking: 4)

5. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent): The Fix generally avoids bold predictions but here's one we can't resist: Michigan in 2008 will be the Ohio of 2004 or the Florida of 2000. That is, the Wolverine State will be the central battleground in the fight for the White House this fall. Why? First and foremost because the economy is, far and away, the biggest issue in this election and nowhere are those hard times felt more than in Michigan. Second, both Obama and McCain believe they have a reasonable path to 50 percent plus one in the state on Nov. 4. It is going to be an absolute war for the next 54 days. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent): Democratic and Republican operatives seem to agree that the Rocky Mountain State is a golden (pun intended) opportunity for Obama. Democrats have scored across-the-board gains (two House seats, a Senate seat and the governor's mansion) over the last few elections and staging the Democratic National Convention in Denver is sure to further fire up the party's base for the fall. (Previous ranking: 7)

3. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent): The high profile Democratic caucus in the state earlier this year did wonders for party registration numbers; as of August, there were nearly 458,000 registered Democrats in Nevada as compared to 397,000 registered Republicans. Still, Nevada's voters tend to be more conservative on social issues like guns and abortion and the Western appeal of the McCain/Palin ticket should not be overlooked. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent): The coming fall election looks like a slam dunk for Democrats in the Land of Enchantment. Senate Republicans have given up on the open seat race to replace Pete Domenici, and House Democrats are optimistic about their chances in taking over two open seats. With a Democratic wave seemingly building, Obama's campaign feels very good about his chances here. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent): McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said recently that he felt better about their chances in Iowa. Hard to see why. Obama retains a quasi native son appeal in the Hawkeye State and the most recent poll we've seen gave him a 15 point edge. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post, September 12, 2008