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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Why Clinton Can't Decide

UPDATED, 11:30 pm: A Clinton adviser emails with some other thoughts about the seeming indecision by the New York Senator about the Secretary of State position.

"I think she's in legacy planning mode and needs to figure out how to make a mark over the next five years since that is her window," said the adviser, granted anonymity to speak about private deliberations. "After that, the jockeying among Democrats for president in 2016 begins and she will fade (assuming she isn't one of the Democrats running in 2016)."

The plot thickens...

ORIGINAL POST

So the question facing her is whether she can make a mark as one of 100 and as a senator that lacks a specific jurisdiction over the issues she cares most about vs having a set turf (in the state dept) and platform from which she can command a spotlight.

Although plenty of other political stories are sure to come and go over the next few days, there is only one MAJOR story out there: Will New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton be secretary of State in President-elect Barack Obama's Administration?

Ever since it was revealed late last week that the one-time rivals had huddled in Chicago to discuss the possibility of Clinton heading up the State Department, cable news, radio shows, newspapers, and online news sources have been dominated by speculation about whether she will take the job or not and why. (Set aside for the moment the potential complications presented by former President Bill Clinton's work in foreign countries and the financial disclosure issues regarding his presidential library fundraising that might arise during the vetting process.)

There is a growing sentiment that Clinton should just make up her mind already -- either say "yes" or "no" to avoid dragging the process out any longer. (Politico's Glenn Thrush, a veteran of the New York political scene, wrote a piece last night suggesting that Clinton remains undecided about what to do.)

While that sentiment is not unexpected, it is unrealistic based on what we know of Clinton and her thoughts on her own political future.

Talk to anyone who was a member of the Clinton campaign -- inner or outer circle -- and they will tell you that the New York senator was single-mindedly committed to winning the Democratic nomination and the White House until the day she decided to end her campaign.

Time and time again during the campaign when it looked like she simply could not overcome Obama's pledged delegate edge, we would ask Clinton aides whether she ever talked privately about the prospect of not winning. To a person, they insisted she never spoke about the possibility.

So, when she ultimately did concede, Clinton had only just begun to grapple with the idea that she would not now -- and might not ever -- be the president of the United States.

And, don't forget, that Clinton's six years in the Senate before she began running for president were generally regarded -- even by her critics -- as surprisingly productive and bipartisan. She clearly relished her role in the chamber and was, by almost all accounts, enjoying herself.

For a moment put yourself in Clinton's shoes. Imagine if a longtime life aspiration had been foreclosed relatively suddenly; you probably would not begin immediately to plot your next move, but rather would, almost assuredly, take some time to figure out what your options were and what you really wanted to do with the rest of your life.

So it is with Clinton, according to those familiar with her thinking.

"She is definitely unsure of what to do," said one Clinton adviser granted anonymity to speak candidly about the New York senator's state of mind. "She was flattered by the offer and thinks Senator Obama and his team have been good to work with."

The source added that if Clinton ultimately decides against the job, it won't be because of the vetting process but rather because her interest in domestic policy issues -- particularly health care and energy policy -- ultimately trumps her desire to play a large role on the foreign stage. (Clinton was chosen by Sen. Ted Kennedy on Tuesday to head a task force on health insurance reform.)

While that line of reasoning makes sense to us -- especially when considering that Clinton may have never even thought of the possibility that she could be secretary of State until six days ago -- there is a line of thinking in the political world that nothing the Clintons do is without calculation.

If you ascribe to that idea, then this push by her advisers to paint Clinton as equivocating on her desire for the position could well be part of a power struggle between her and Obama; a public show of force to make clear that just because the president-elect has asked her for something doesn't mean she is in any rush to accede.

Given all that Clinton has been through since she announced her bid for president in January 2007, it seems entirely plausible that she legitimately hasn't made up her mind about what she should do with the rest of her political life and will take the rest of the week to decide whether she wants to continue in elected office or walk down a different path.

Regardless of her reasoning, the political world waits as she ponders the possibilities.




By Chris Cillizza, The Washington Post, November 19, 2008
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