Hillary Clinton in Seoul, focused on mysterious N. Korea
Secretary of State Clinton and South Korean officials puzzle over whether and how Kim Jong Il will be replaced in the North. The chance of a new regime is already increasing instability in Asia.
Reporting from Seoul -- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said today that U.S. officials and their allies are scrambling to prepare for the possible departure from power of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a development she said threatened new turbulence in one of the world's most heavily armed regions.
Arriving in Seoul for security talks, Clinton said persistent signs within the secretive Pyongyang government suggest that a change of leadership might be at hand. She said the South Korean government has been especially concerned over what might be developing inside its impoverished northern neighbor.
U.S. intelligence agencies reported last August that Kim, the 67-year-old "Dear Leader" who has led the country since 1994, may have suffered a stroke or some other serious health setback. Some observers played down the report and some U.S. officials have said since that they believed Kim was once again in charge, if not at full capacity.
However, Clinton's comments suggested there is now a widespread conviction that Kim is on the way out, and that the South Koreans, Chinese, Americans and others are formulating plans for how best to deal with the successor regime.
The signs of disarray in the North have included the firing earlier this year of the defense minister and the military chief of staff. The promotion of one of Kim's three sons was announced -- then withdrawn, U.S. officials noticed.
Some observers see another sign in the sudden breakdown of the talks over dismantling of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal, and believe the regime's belligerent new tone may reflect the influence of emerging leaders.
Analysts have offered various ideas of what the new leadership might look like. Some say that Kim's brother-in-law or one of his three sons could be a part of a new leadership, but perhaps only as a figurehead.
Many experts fear that the successor regime, which will control the world's fifth-largest army, could be even less cooperative than Kim's.
Clinton said the United States and its allies are trying to figure out how to form a "common front" to restart the stalled nuclear negotiations, but pointed out that North Korea "has shown very little willingness to get back on track." She said the fact the north's leadership is now "somewhat unclear" has compounded the difficulties of working with the regime, making the diplomacy "a difficult undertaking."
The dangers of dealing with North Korea have been highlighted in recent weeks by reports that the regime is preparing to test a Taepodong 2 missile that many believe is capable of striking U.S. territory. North Korea isn't yet able to mount a nuclear weapon on the tip of its missiles, experts say.
The regime has made a series of threats against South Korea and the United States through its official news agency. Michael Green, a top Asia expert in the Bush administration who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said earlier this month that the chances for violence between North Korea and South Korea are increasing in the disputed waters west of the peninsula.
Obama administration officials have acknowledged that the outlook for the dealing with the North Korean threat is not encouraging. Advisors have said that the general gloom surrounding the issue has made it more difficult for the Obama administration to find a special envoy to handle the issue.
Clinton said the administration is also thinking about how to formulate a new international effort to deal with North Korea's ballistic missile program. The North continues to make progress on longer-range missiles, and secret sales of its missile technology to other governments are a major worry for world powers.
Clinton said that the missile issue was one of "great concern." She said she wanted to work with other countries to decide whether the issue would best be handled through the existing six-country forum or through a new approach.
One of Clinton's goals in her one-day visit to Seoul is to convince the embattled government of President Lee Myung-bak that the United States intends to stand up to the North, despite its promises that it will seek greater diplomatic engagement with adversary regimes.
Lee, a conservative, has brought down the wrath of the North upon himself by cutting off cash aid on grounds that Pyongyang is not living up to its commitments to the North-South peace effort. Many analysts believe that the North's recent threatening behavior has been aimed at undermining Lee, who is also in trouble politically at home because of the damaging effects of the world economic crisis on South Korea.
Clinton flies to Beijing on Saturday for talks with the Chinese government. She is interested in broadening U.S.-Chinese diplomacy to put new emphasis on non economic issues, including climate change. But her comments today underscored that discussions about of North Korea will also be central in China.
U.S. officials believe the Chinese have special influence with their smaller neighbor, and want Beijing to use its leverage again to try to force more cooperation.
By Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, February 19, 2009
Reporting from Seoul -- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said today that U.S. officials and their allies are scrambling to prepare for the possible departure from power of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a development she said threatened new turbulence in one of the world's most heavily armed regions.
Arriving in Seoul for security talks, Clinton said persistent signs within the secretive Pyongyang government suggest that a change of leadership might be at hand. She said the South Korean government has been especially concerned over what might be developing inside its impoverished northern neighbor.
"Everybody's trying to read the tea leaves about what's happening and what's likely to occur," Clinton told reporters on her plane during a flight from Jakarta to Seoul, broaching a topic that has rarely been discussed publicly by U.S. officials.
Clinton said that even a peaceful succession "creates more uncertainty, and it could create conditions that are even more provocative" as the ascendant leadership tries to consolidate power.
The comments from the top American diplomat are certain to provoke a sharp reaction from Pyongyang. Hours earlier, the North Korean regime stepped up its confrontational rhetoric, saying its forces were "fully ready" for war with South Korea.
Clinton was on the fifth day of a weeklong trip to East Asia focusing in part on what to do about North Korea, which is believed to have a handful of nuclear weapons.Clinton said that even a peaceful succession "creates more uncertainty, and it could create conditions that are even more provocative" as the ascendant leadership tries to consolidate power.
The comments from the top American diplomat are certain to provoke a sharp reaction from Pyongyang. Hours earlier, the North Korean regime stepped up its confrontational rhetoric, saying its forces were "fully ready" for war with South Korea.
U.S. intelligence agencies reported last August that Kim, the 67-year-old "Dear Leader" who has led the country since 1994, may have suffered a stroke or some other serious health setback. Some observers played down the report and some U.S. officials have said since that they believed Kim was once again in charge, if not at full capacity.
However, Clinton's comments suggested there is now a widespread conviction that Kim is on the way out, and that the South Koreans, Chinese, Americans and others are formulating plans for how best to deal with the successor regime.
The signs of disarray in the North have included the firing earlier this year of the defense minister and the military chief of staff. The promotion of one of Kim's three sons was announced -- then withdrawn, U.S. officials noticed.
Some observers see another sign in the sudden breakdown of the talks over dismantling of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal, and believe the regime's belligerent new tone may reflect the influence of emerging leaders.
Analysts have offered various ideas of what the new leadership might look like. Some say that Kim's brother-in-law or one of his three sons could be a part of a new leadership, but perhaps only as a figurehead.
Many experts fear that the successor regime, which will control the world's fifth-largest army, could be even less cooperative than Kim's.
Clinton said the United States and its allies are trying to figure out how to form a "common front" to restart the stalled nuclear negotiations, but pointed out that North Korea "has shown very little willingness to get back on track." She said the fact the north's leadership is now "somewhat unclear" has compounded the difficulties of working with the regime, making the diplomacy "a difficult undertaking."
The dangers of dealing with North Korea have been highlighted in recent weeks by reports that the regime is preparing to test a Taepodong 2 missile that many believe is capable of striking U.S. territory. North Korea isn't yet able to mount a nuclear weapon on the tip of its missiles, experts say.
The regime has made a series of threats against South Korea and the United States through its official news agency. Michael Green, a top Asia expert in the Bush administration who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said earlier this month that the chances for violence between North Korea and South Korea are increasing in the disputed waters west of the peninsula.
Obama administration officials have acknowledged that the outlook for the dealing with the North Korean threat is not encouraging. Advisors have said that the general gloom surrounding the issue has made it more difficult for the Obama administration to find a special envoy to handle the issue.
Clinton said the administration is also thinking about how to formulate a new international effort to deal with North Korea's ballistic missile program. The North continues to make progress on longer-range missiles, and secret sales of its missile technology to other governments are a major worry for world powers.
Clinton said that the missile issue was one of "great concern." She said she wanted to work with other countries to decide whether the issue would best be handled through the existing six-country forum or through a new approach.
One of Clinton's goals in her one-day visit to Seoul is to convince the embattled government of President Lee Myung-bak that the United States intends to stand up to the North, despite its promises that it will seek greater diplomatic engagement with adversary regimes.
Lee, a conservative, has brought down the wrath of the North upon himself by cutting off cash aid on grounds that Pyongyang is not living up to its commitments to the North-South peace effort. Many analysts believe that the North's recent threatening behavior has been aimed at undermining Lee, who is also in trouble politically at home because of the damaging effects of the world economic crisis on South Korea.
Clinton flies to Beijing on Saturday for talks with the Chinese government. She is interested in broadening U.S.-Chinese diplomacy to put new emphasis on non economic issues, including climate change. But her comments today underscored that discussions about of North Korea will also be central in China.
U.S. officials believe the Chinese have special influence with their smaller neighbor, and want Beijing to use its leverage again to try to force more cooperation.
By Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times, February 19, 2009
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