With a push for more money and personnel, the president is signaling a 'lasting commitment' to Islamabad. Will it pay off?

Writing From Washington -- The United States has just acquired a new client state -- one with 170 million people, nuclear weapons, an Islamist insurgency and Osama bin Laden. And that's the good news.

The country is Pakistan, and last week it officially became the Obama administration's biggest and most daunting rescue mission. For months, the administration has been inching toward a deeper commitment of American dollars, military trainers and civilian advisors to strengthen Pakistan's government and security forces -- not for humanitarian reasons but to stop the country from drifting into the arms of Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Last week, at a three-way summit meeting of President Obama, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a relationship that had been tentative and prickly began to look more like a long-term commitment.

"I'm not going to say we turned a corner, but I am going to say we opened a new chapter," said special envoy Richard C. Holbrooke, briefing reporters at the White House. "It exceeded our hopes."

Holbrooke and Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. military commander in the region, said they now expect to see more Pakistani cooperation with the U.S.-led campaign against Taliban forces in Afghanistan and a "substantial" Pakistani military campaign against the Islamist insurgents who have taken over the Swat Valley and other parts of northern Pakistan. In return, the U.S. will dramatically increase aid to Pakistan, both military and civilian.

But Holbrooke, a veteran of nation-building since Vietnam, was careful to add a caveat: "The real question is, will it produce results?"

The United States and Pakistan have a long history. During the Cold War, the United States supported military-dominated regimes in Islamabad, seeing Pakistan as essential to containing the spread of communism. But that alliance fell into a decade-long freeze over Pakistan's pursuit of nuclear weapons.

After the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, President Bush made an alliance of inconvenience with Pakistan's military leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, to seek his help against

Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Under the arrangement, Pakistan's armed forces bill the Pentagon for counter-

insurgency operations (and pad the expense account, U.S. auditors say).

Pakistanis were annoyed that they got little American help for their shaky democratic institutions or their economy and feared that the United States loved India, their traditional enemy, more. Americans didn't see much evidence that the Pakistanis were looking for Bin Laden or breaking off their intelligence service's long, deep relationship with the Afghan Taliban.

Now both sides say they are serious about building a deeper, broader relationship. What's changed? Fear. Until last month, many Pakistanis dismissed the Islamist insurgencies in their western badlands as peripheral. But after a faction of Pakistani Taliban took control of the Swat Valley (as close to Islamabad as East Hampton is to Manhattan, Holbrooke likes to say) and began moving into adjoining regions, they finally became alarmed.

The Obama administration also reacted sharply. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called Pakistan's instability "a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world." After initially making a deal to pacify the militants, Pakistan's armed forces agreed that they could not allow the Swat insurgency to stand.

Even before Swat, Petraeus said, Pakistan's armed forces had begun putting more resources into their gritty struggle against insurgents in the west (as opposed to the traditional, large-scale conflict with India to the east). "The Frontier Corps used to be underpaid, underfed, underclothed and underequipped," he said. "They are much more comparable now" to Pakistan's regular army.

Another key change: The intelligence chiefs of Pakistan and Afghanistan have decided to work with each other, even if they don't completely trust each other, in a three-way collaboration with the CIA. American intelligence and military officers have long worried that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence would tip off terrorists about planned U.S. operations; now the U.S. intends to let the Pakistanis know in advance of military sweeps on the Afghan side of the border, to give them a chance to intercept Taliban fighters should they choose to.

The Obama administration wants the Afghans and Pakistanis, long wary of each other, to cooperate. Last week, the evidence of progress on that front was limited mostly to mundane issues such as cross-border truck transport and water resources. The two governments have been so distant from each other that their interior ministers, responsible for their police forces, had never met until they came to Washington.

Obama's main message to Pakistanis last week was that he's making "a lasting commitment," not just another brief military arrangement. "And that is why I've asked Congress for sustained funding, to build schools and roads and hospitals,' Obama said. "I want the Pakistani people to understand that America is not simply against terrorism; we are on the side of their hopes and their aspirations."

That message was also meant, of course, for the president's other audience: Congress. The administration is proposing $7.5 billion in economic aid and at least $3 billion in military aid for Pakistan over the next five years, a major increase on both counts. The proposal is likely to succeed, at least at the outset; the events of the last year have built a bipartisan consensus behind a major effort to stabilize Pakistan. But Congress is full of

skeptics -- not only Republicans but liberal Democrats with long memories.

Rep. David R. Obey (D-Wis.), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, was blunt enough to say that Pakistan reminded him of Vietnam. "The problem is not the administration's policy or its goals," he said. "The problem is that I doubt that we have the tools there that we need to implement virtually any policy in that region."

There are plenty of reasons for skepticism. The problems are huge, the Pakistani government's track record is abysmal and the U.S. government's tools are few. That $7.5 billion in economic aid would come to about $9 per Pakistani per year.

But this round could be different. Until now, Pakistan was on the periphery of American concerns; now it's a central focus. Until now, Pakistani military leaders dismissed the Islamist insurgents as a minor annoyance; Swat is starting to change some minds on that. And we are a long way from the days when Bush lauded Musharraf as a great man; Zardari, the unimpressive widower of the late Benazir Bhutto, won no such endorsement. Obama has taken on the problems of Pakistan as his own, but at least he has done so with his eyes open.




By Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times, May 10, 2009

(CNN) -- Think of all the problems that U.S. President Barack Obama is facing -- the economy, two wars, Somali pirates and the Swine flu -- and you can easily forget the one that went away.

It's Hillary Clinton, who literally went away, traveling as America's top diplomat to Switzerland and South Korea, Ireland and Indonesia, and several ports of call in between. She still works in Washington, but in a way few of us would have expected.

Think back: Obama and Clinton spent a long time plotting against each other, competing in a drawn-out contest for their party's presidential nomination. It was a battle bitter enough to threaten to split the Democrats and cost them the election.

Obama won, of course, and stunned the country by naming Clinton to his cabinet as secretary of state. It put her in the company of more experienced foreign-policy hands such as vice-president Joe Biden and started talk about whether Obama's "Team of Rivals" could cooperate successfully. So far, it seems they have.

Clinton has been many things -- a lawyer, a First Lady and a senator. Now, she has become the very model of a loyal cabinet secretary and busy diplomat.

If Clinton has a lower profile that's partly a product of the times. Right now, the most important decisions for the administration are about the economy. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan probably come next. If it isn't about money or mayhem, America isn't really all that interested.

And Hillary isn't the only Clinton who's gotten quieter. Bill Clinton remains one of the most popular figures in American politics, but these days, he's barely seen. He hasn't ceded the spotlight to Hillary; they have both backed away from it, in favor of Obama.

Why? For nearly two decades, a Clinton was either running for president or holding the office. Now, neither of them is. Hillary Clinton tells reporters she loves her new job.

And even if she still wants to be president, Obama has that job for the foreseeable future.





By Jonathan Mann, CNN, May 8, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) - As President Barack Obama courts closer relations with Russia, U.S. ally Georgia has plenty of reasons to be nervous.

After all, Russia invaded Georgia in August, recognized the independence of two wayward Georgian territories and has ramped up its military presence in those territories in the face of Western condemnation.

So far, the Obama administration is saying all the right things: That it rejects Russian assertions of a sphere of influence; that both Georgia and Ukraine are on track for NATO membership; that Moscow should respect Georgia's territorial integrity.

Georgian officials, who have visited Washington, say they are pleased with the administration's approach so far and are confident of continued U.S. support.

It also is clear, however, that the Obama administration is not eager for a showdown with Moscow over Georgia, or anything else.

This week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made his first trip to Washington under the new administration and met with both Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. The two sides set a cordial tone, emphasizing new cooperation on arms control and a host of issues.

"We have expressed on several occasions our concerns about Georgia," Clinton said. "But it is, I think, old thinking to say that we have a disagreement in one area, therefore we shouldn't work in something else that is of overwhelming importance."

Both Lavrov and Clinton also expressed an interest in maintaining stability in Georgia, although they might not agree on how to achieve it.

Despite all the calming rhetoric, Lavrov's visit came during an active time for geopolitical gamesmanship in the Caucasus. Late last week, Russia declared that it was posting border guards on Georgia's de facto borders with its two breakaway regions. This week, as NATO prepared contentious military exercises in Georgia, the Georgian government broke up what it said was a mutiny by its soldiers that it initially said Moscow had orchestrated.

Against this backdrop, Georgia's opposition is intensifying protests and demanding President Mikhail Saakashvili resign.

The American-educated president has enjoyed strong backing in Washington since he rose to power in the 2003 Rose Revolution and won plaudits as a champion of democracy. More recently, he has lost some of his support both at home and abroad amid accusations that he has used state power to silence critics and bears responsibility for the August war with Russia.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration, still early in its tenure, is formally reviewing U.S. policy on both Russia and Georgia. While the administration has promised unconditional support for Georgia and its budding democracy, it has not promised the same for Saakashvili.

As much as the Obama administration would like to keep Georgia from disrupting its rapprochement with Moscow, recent events show that U.S.-Russian maneuvering in the Caucasus is unlikely to end. If tensions flare, or the Kremlin should decide to test American resolve, Georgia may learn how it fits in the Obama administration's priorities.

By Desmond Butler, The Associated Press, May 9, 2009

PRAGUE, Czech Republic, May 7 (UPI) -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been rather exceptional in her first 100 days in office. She has been a praetorian guard for the American people. She has been a loyal general and quiet hand behind President Obama's overwhelming public presence.

It was mid-Friday, April 3. We had received final notice the secretary's schedule was full. After brainstorming all day, I had an epiphany. I called John O'Sullivan. A respected former journalist and chief adviser to Margaret Thatcher, he is now managing director of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He is also an old friend from the fight against communism and a member of Global Panel America's board.

"John," I said with urgency in my voice, "I need a favor. The Prague Society has not made it onto the secretary's schedule. I know she is visiting RFE/RL. I need an exception to get me in at this late date to cover her visit." An hour later, it was done.

This was not a simple request. For those who do not know, when a ranking U.S. official visits anywhere overseas, security precautions are overwhelming. Guest lists must be submitted weeks in advance. Guests must be in their places hours before the principal appears. And then comes the lockdown -- no one in, no one out.

The secretary's entire European schedule was beyond packed, beyond frenetic. We had been in contact with her staff. We had hoped until the last minute for a pass-by, a sidebar somewhere between meetings. I must say -- and I have dealt with many presidential and ministerial staffs -- they were polite, helpful and normal. I mean normal. And trust me, that is not a standard occurrence or practice.

The secretary's speech at Radio Free Europe was her only offline visit. She is the head of the Broadcasting Board of Governors, but it was still tough to fit in a secretary of her stature, especially when 27 heads of state, along with foreign ministers and a slew of other officials, were asking for her time. Never mind the president himself. RFE/RL President Jeffrey Gedmin and his staff fought diligently to get her in the door.

I had arrived at 8:20 a.m., just before the lockdown. Bill, the head of RFE security, met me and I asked if we could have a smoker's moment outside. He was delighted and later led me to the staff dining hall. There were several hundred RFE/RL journalists waiting patiently to be led into the broadcast room to hear Clinton in two hours' time.

I stood with Gordana Knezevic, the head of the South Slavic Service, a Bosnian by birth; her children live and study in the United States. We discussed ethics in general in Central and Eastern Europe and noted that it is at a disturbingly low level among government officials and even home-grown business folks -- the top of whom are often the sons and daughters of former apparatchiks and nomenklatura from the days of communism. It makes me sick.

John O'Sullivan joined, as did senior correspondent Ron Synovitz, as we engaged in an intense discussion about ethics in Bulgaria and Romania. I had just met a week earlier with Solomon Passy, the former Bulgarian dissident and foreign minister who had been a dark horse candidate for NATO secretary-general. Solomon and I had met in the offices of Zdravko Popov, the competent and affable Bulgarian ambassador to Prague, and spoken about corruption, communists and the future of NATO. He surely would have had a much better chance without Bulgaria's seriously negative reputation for corruption.

It was time. Clinton had arrived. We shuffled into the broadcasting room.

After a few minutes, Gedmin introduced Clinton with a clarion call to "smart power and soft power" -- something represented by Radio Free Europe.

Clinton powered down the front glass stairs to thunderous applause. She was within earshot of me and just a handshake away. She looked around. We made eye contact. She smiled. "We'll talk," her lips mouthed silently to me.

"My visit sped up your moving process," she joked as all laughed, reminding those present that Radio Free Europe had moved just a week earlier from its location of the past 16 years in the former Communist Parliament Building at the top of Wenceslas Square to a specifically built new compound. RFE had previously been in Munich and had moved after the fall of communism. Tom Dine, the former head of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, had been the head of RFE in those transition days. He still is the standard by which RFE presidents are measured.

"It has been 12 years since I was last here as first lady." I had also been present at her visit then. "Smart power takes smart people. It takes reaching out to Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and the North Caucasus even when risks are involved. ... In Afghanistan, Radio Free Afghanistan is the most popular station. Fifty percent of all adults tune in.

"We must fight harassment, intimidation, and kidnapping of journalists. Some of you in this very room have been subjected to this. We could not do our work without you. The United States offers you an enormous debt of gratitude." She could not continue for several minutes as the room erupted with adulation. "We must show American values around the world. We must show they are better. We must fight for human dignity and the rights of children. We must listen, consult and strategize. You and Radio Free Europe will be a core part of this effort. I will be back. Trust me."

As the secretary walked down the stairs and finally got to me, she took my hand. "I didn't have time this time. Thanks for your support in the past. We'll have to take a rain check."

And with that, a remarkable public servant slipped away.

By MARC S. ELLENBOGEN, UPI, May 7, 2009

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday the two governments will not let differences over Georgia and other regional issues get in the way of efforts to reach a new strategic arms control deal. The two countries begin negotiations May 18 on an agreement to replace the 1991 START-I strategic arms treaty, which expires at years-end.

Despite better atmospherics in their relationship since the start of the Obama administration, the two sides have not resolved differences over Georgia, European missile defense and ways to prompt Iran to end uranium enrichment.

But both Clinton and Lavrov, in comments after their second full-scale meeting since March, say the problems will not hamper broader cooperation between the two powers including their effort to put further curbs on the world's largest nuclear arsenals.

Clinton said it is "old thinking" to argue that because Washington and Moscow differ on some regional issues, including Georgia, they should not try to address matters of "overwhelming importance" like arms control. The Russian foreign minister, heard through an interpreter, readily agreed.

"The task of further reductions of strategic offensive weapons is too important, both for Russia and the United States, and for the entire world in fact, to make it hostage of any particular regime anywhere around the globe. As far as the situation in the Caucasus, especially in the South Caucasus, we have discussed it today. True, we do have obvious differences. We do not conceal those. But we agree on one thing: we need to do our best in order to achieve stability there," he said.

Senior U.S. and Russian negotiators are to convene in Moscow May 18th to begin arms control talks with the aim of having at least the outlines of a deal when President Obama meets Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the Russian capital in July.

The two presidents met for the first time on the sidelines of the G-20 economic conference in London in early April and set in motion what Clinton says is an effort to raise the frequently contentious U.S.-Russian relationship to a higher level.

"Our leadership in the area of arms control and non-proliferation is of such profound global concern that that is at the top of the list. But there are so many other important matters that we are dealing with. And one of the areas we discussed today is how we're going to suggest to our presidents, for their summit, a way forward. Because I couldn't agree more with what Sergei said. We want to normalize the relationship and raise it to a new level," she said.

On the Iran nuclear issue, Lavrov said while Moscow opposes harsh additional U.N. sanctions against Tehran, it does support, and is applying, "robust" political pressure to get Iran to return to negotiations with the major powers on its enrichment program.

Lavrov briefed Clinton on his visit to North Korea late last month, which was the first by a major-power diplomat since Pyongyang announced it was quitting Chinese-brokered negotiations on its nuclear program.

Under questioning, Clinton said she had no plans for a Pyongyang visit herself but noted that U.S. envoy for North Korean Stephen Bosworth has been dispatched to Asia and Russia to discuss the situation.

She said she and Lavrov agreed on the need to get North Korea back to the six-party talks but said the other participating countries "may have to show some patience" before that is achieved.

By David Gollust, Voice of America, May 7, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama, after meeting with a top Russian official on Thursday, said he thinks the United States and Russia can narrow their differences over nuclear weapons, the Middle East and several other issues.

Obama met at the White House with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They discussed a number of issues likely to come up when Obama visits Moscow in July.

"We have an excellent opportunity to reset the relationship between the United States and Russia on a whole host of issues," Obama told reporters after the meeting. Those issues, he said, include nuclear proliferation, the situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, conflicts in Iraq and the Middle East, and the worldwide economy.

Lavrov, who met earlier with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, said, "I think we work in a very pragmatic, businesslike way" to resolve differences between the two countries.

Clinton and Lavrov said earlier that recent differences over Georgia will not stand in the way of arms control negotiations.

In a cordial appearance during Lavrov's first visit to Washington during the Obama administration, the officials expressed optimism that their countries were easing disagreements that have roiled relations in recent years.

Lavrov said through an interpreter that reducing nuclear arsenals was "too important both for Russia and the United States and the rest of the world to hold hostage."

However, the meeting came as tensions flared over NATO exercises in Georgia. Ahead of his arrival in Washington, Lavrov canceled a May 19 meeting at NATO to protest the exercises.

On Wednesday, Russia announced the expulsion of two Moscow-based NATO officials in a tit-for-tat move after NATO revoked the accreditation of two Russian envoys to alliance headquarters in Brussels.

NATO did not give a reason for the April 30 revocations, but Russia suggested the move was tied to a February espionage scandal in which Moscow was accused of accepting NATO secrets from a spy.

Other disagreements that emerged under the Bush administration also remain. Washington and Moscow appear divided on how to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions, for instance.

On Thursday, with Clinton, Lavrov repeated Russia's opposition to EU and U.S. sanctions against Iran, insisting that actions should be coordinated within the United Nations' Security Council.

And while the United States has put its contentious missile defense plans in Europe under review, that disagreement has not been resolved.

Lavrov said the two sides continue to discuss Russian proposals for cooperation and compromise on missile defense.

The Obama administration wants to emphasize topics the two sides might agree on: new arms control and nonproliferation talks.

"It is, I think, old thinking to say that we have a disagreement in one area, therefore we shouldn't work on something else that is of overwhelming importance," Clinton said. "That's just not how we think."

U.S. and Russian negotiators have recently begun negotiating to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, which expires at year's end. Those talks were launched after the first face-to-face meeting between Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last month.

The two leaders appeared to set a new tone in relations, promising cooperation on a host of issues. The Obama administration's attempt to engage Moscow marks a break from the Bush administration, which didn't like extensive arms control negotiations and angered Moscow with its intention to install a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

By DESMOND BUTLER, The Associated Press, May 7, 2009

WASHINGTON (AFP) - US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday the United States and its negotiating partners may have to "show some patience" before nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea can resume.

Clinton, speaking at a press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said both the United States and Russia want to try to get the North Koreans back to the six-party negotiating framework.

"We may have to show some patience before that is achieved, but we agree on the goal that we are aiming for," Clinton said.

The United States has been involved in negotiations with the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia aimed at scrapping North Korea's nuclear program in exchange for aid under a landmark six-party agreement signed in 2007.

The negotiations deadlocked late last year over a dispute with North Korea over how to verify disarmament before taking a sharp turn for the worse with North Korea's launch of a long-range rocket on April 5.

The North last week threatened to conduct a second nuclear test and ballistic missile tests unless the United Nations Security Council apologized for condemning and punishing its rocket launch.

Pyongyang said it put a peaceful satellite into orbit but the United States, South Korea and Japan said it staged a disguised missile test.

When a Russian reporter asked if she was prepared to visit Pyongyang in a bid to find a way out of the deadlock, Clinton replied: "No, I have no plans of going to North Korea."

Stephen Bosworth, the special envoy for North Korea policy, was in Beijing Thursday at the start of a tour of Asia and Russia aimed at convincing the reclusive Communist state to resume nuclear disarmament talks.

AFP, May 7, 2009

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton convened a three-way meeting with the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan Wednesday, saying they face a common threat, task and challenge posed by Islamic extremism. Clinton stressed U.S. regret over the death of Afghan civilians in a U.S. air attack Monday against Taliban forces.

The trilateral meeting, the second of its kind this year, comes at a critical juncture with both the Pakistani and Afghan governments facing major battlefield challenges from militant forces.

Clinton, convening joint talks that are to continue later at the White House with President Obama, said the administration has common cause with the two South Asian governments, who she said are struggling with extremists who would destabilize and undermine democracy.

The trilateral meeting convened under a shadow of one of the most serious incidents of U.S.-inflicted civilian casualties of the Afghan war, with dozens of Afghans reported killed in a bombing raid aimed at Taliban forces in the western Farah province.

Clinton in opening remarks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, reiterated a U.S. statement of regret issued late Tuesday and a promise to investigate the matter.

"We deeply regret it," Clinton said. "We don't know all of the circumstances or causes, and there will be a joint investigation by your government and ours. But any loss of life any loss of innocent life, is particularly painful. And I want to convey to the people of both Afghanistan and Pakistan that we will work very hard with your governments and your leaders to avoid the loss of innocent civilian life."

For his part, President Karzai - who appealed in Washington Tuesday for the United States to be more sensitive to Afghans - said he the hoped the two governments can work together to reduce and eventually eliminate such occurrences.

He also said he hoped the trilateral forum can help ease his country's frequently tense relationship with neighboring Pakistan.

"Occasions like today, Afghanistan will use to the best of its ability to deliver to the effectiveness of what we're doing together for stability and to do the right thing with regard to our relations with Pakistan in bringing more confidence, more trust, and a working environment in which the two countries together can wage a more effective struggle against the menace of terrorism, and the violence that radicalism causes," Mr. Karzai said.

U.S. officials in recent weeks have expressed open concern about the Pakistani government's commitment to defending against Taliban inroads after militants went on the offensive in districts north of Islamabad.

But in his remarks, President Zardari stressed his commitment to the fight against terrorism, saying the threat is common to all three countries and the burden is shared.

"I'm here to assure you that we shall share this burden with you, for no matter how long it takes and what it takes, democracies will deliver. My democracy will deliver," Mr. Zardari said. "The people of Pakistan stand with the people of the United State and the people of Afghanistan. We stand with our brother Karzai and the people of Afghanistan against this common threat, this menace which I have called cancer."

The opening event of what are to be two days of high-level talks included the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and Afghanistan for the conclusion of a border trade and transit agreement by the end of this year - an accord under discussion for more than 40 years.





By David Gollust, Voice of America, May 6, 2009